Using energy statistics: the basics of energy balances Faidon Papadimoulis – IEA Energy Data Centre Regional Training Workshop on the Production of SEEA-Energy Accounts and Use of Energy Information for Policy, 17 – 20 December 2019, Almaty, Kazakhstan IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Energy Balances n A. Introductory elements n Importance of energy balances n Energy balance table n Benefits of energy balances n B. Technical details n How energy balances are calculated n Methodology options n IEA energy balance layout IEA 2019. All rights reserved. The importance of energy balances: bringing all information together “…An accounting framework for compilation of data on all energy products entering, exiting, and used within the national territory of a given country during a reference period.” Source: International Recommendations on Energy Statistics (IRES), UNSD, 2011 IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Why do we develop energy balances? ØTo understand overall energy use in country, i.e. § compute the total energy supply and use § assess relative contribution of different sources in energy mix and/or different sectors in energy demand § compute efficiencies of various transformation processes (e.g. electricity generation) ØTo estimate high-level indicators (i.e. self-sufficiency, energy intensity) and CO2 emissions from fuel comBustion ØTo assess data completeness and check quality of the various energy commodity balances IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Energy balance table How does it look like? IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Energy balance can be depicted as a Sankey chart https://www.iea.org/sankey/ IEA 2019. All rights reserved. The energy balance matrix ØColumns present the “commodity balances” for all products ØRows present the “flows of energy” across products ØTotal energy can be defined All data are comparable thanks to a common energy unit - IEA methodology uses ktoe IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Give your opinion ØTo convert mass to energy units, we need… § Specific gravity Typically in units of § Calorific value energy per mass or per volume § Emission factor IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Understanding the flows of energy Supply Rows present energy flows Transformation across the various products Final consumption Three main “blocks” of flows IEA 2019. All rights reserved. 1: Energy supply “High-level” information: Total primary energy supply, production, trade, totals, etc… Source: IEA, Key World Energy Statistics, 2019 IEA 2019. All rights reserved. 2: Transformation and energy sectors Transforming energy sources Input Output (coal) (electricity) The concept of transformation efficiency = output / input IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Give your opinion ØWhat is the average efficiency for a coal electricity-only power plant? § 37% § 52% § 65% Source: IEA, World Energy Balances, 2017 IEA 2019. All rights reserved. 3: Final consumption Deliveries of energy products to all final consumers IEA 2019. All rights reserved. And finally... ØWhat is the largest energy-consuming sector in the world? § Residential § Transport § Industry IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Answer ØWhat is the largest energy-consuming sector in the world? Total final consumption By sector in 2017 § Residential 4% Industry 9% 29% Transport 8% § Transport Residential Commerce and public 21% services § Industry Non-energy use 29% Other IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Source: IEA, World Energy Balances, 2019 Benefits of energy balances Some examples IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Using the energy balance with economic indicators • Population • GDP • Energy Production/TPES • Oil Supply/GDP • Net Oil Imports/GDP • Oil Supply/Population • TPES/GDP • Electricity Consumption/GDP • TPES/Population • Electricity Consumption/Population IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Developing high-level indicators • TPES per capita • TPES per GDP • TPES per GDP (PPP) • Net energy imports • Total CO2 emissions • CO2 emissions per capita • CO2 emissions per GDP • CO2 emissions per GDP (PPP) • CO2 intensity (TPES/ CO2) • Electricity final consumption www.iea.org/areas-of- work/data-and-statistics Coupling energy Balances data with various macro- Source: IEA 2019. All rights reserved. economic variaBles IEA, World Energy Balances, 2019 Estimating CO2 emissions from fuel combustion 35 30 Europe 25 Asia 20 Americas 15 Africa 10 Oceania Bunkers 5 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Based on energy Balances and Source: IEA, World CO2 Emissions IPCC methodologies from Fuel Combustion, 2019 IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Tracking official SDG targets World map: Modern renewaBle share in TFC, 2016 Derived from IEA’s Energy Balances: • SDG 7.2 on renewable energy • SDG 7.3 on energy efficiency • SDG 9.4 on emissions per value added Further targets monitored By IEA: • SDG 7.1 on access to electricity • SDG 7.1 on access to clean cooking • SDG 12.c on rationalising fossil-fuel subsidies Source: IEA, World Energy Balances, 2018 IEA 2019. All rights reserved. www.iea.org/sdg/ Beyond energy balances: monitoring energy efficiency Starting from energy Balances and getting more insights in energy efficiency Source: IEA, Energy Efficiency Indicators: Fundamentals on Statistics, 2016 IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Exercises Part 1 IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Technical details Process, structure, methodological choices IEA 2019. All rights reserved. How energy Balances are calculated IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Flow of data processing at the IEA Annual Questionnaires OR National puBlications, weBsites Coal Commodity Energy Statistics balances Oil Natural gas Renewables Electricity & Heat IEA 2019. All rights reserved. From energy statistics to energy balance – How? Statistics x Calorific Format Energy by product values change = balance x A calorific value • is the amount of heat obtained from one unit (mass or volume) of the fuel and is the only way to convert a fuel quantity from physical units (mass or volume) into energy units (e.g. ktoe). IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Calorific values – Key to data quality Commodity Bituminous Product 2 … coal balances Bituminous Product 2 kt m3 Net Calorific … coal Values Bituminous Product 2 TJ/kt TJ/m3 Energy … Production 100 balance coal TJ TJ Import 20 Production 23 (excerpt) Export 40 Import 25 Production 2300 Supply 80 Export 22.5 Import 500 Statistical 0 Export 900 differences Supply 1900 Input to 50 Input to 22 Statistical 200 Electricity Electricity differences … … Input to 1100 Electricity Final 30 Final 20 consumption consumption … …. Final 600 Need to collect good data…. for consumption physicalIEA 2019. All rights reserved. quantities AND calorific values …. Methodology options IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Energy balance methodological choices: 1. Common unit of account 2. Net vs. Gross calorific value approach 3. Calorific values by product 4. Primary energy form for energy transformations that do not involve combustion 5. Physical energy content vs. Partial substitution method IEA 2019. All rights reserved. 1. Which energy unit? Btu The IEA opted for: toe toe Joules Watt-hours IEA 2019. All rights reserved. 2. Net vs. Gross calorific values? The difference between NCV and GCV is the latent heat of vaporisation of the water produced during comBustion 5% 5% 10% IEA uses Net Calorific Values (NCVs) IEA 2019. All rights reserved. 3. Choice of calorific values by product For Coal, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Oil products Calorific values vary: • over time (i.e. vary from year to year) • between commodities (i.e. coal ≠ oil products) • from country to country • from flow to flow (in some cases, i.e. trade ≠ consumption) IEA 2019. All rights reserved. 4a. How to determine primary equivalents for non-combustible sources? n ComBustiBle sources have measurable inputs in the context of a transformation (i.e. natural gas input for gas-fired generation) n But how about non-combustible sources like nuclear, geothermal, solar, wind, wave? The output is clear (electricity, heat), but how much is the input? ? ? ? IEA 2019. All rights reserved. 4b. What is the primary energy form for non-combustible sources? n We need to define the form of primary energy to be considered in the supply part for the following sources: Heat for: w nuclear electricity w geothermal (heat and electricity) w solar thermal heat Electricity for: w hydro w wind w wave/ocean w solar photovoltaics à First energy form downstream for which IEA 2019. All rights reserved. multiple energy uses are practical 5a. Method for calculating the primary energy equivalent (non-comBustiBle sources) IEA opted for: Physical energy content method w Primary energy equivalent refers to the physical energy content of the primary energy source chosen in the previous step. w Implied efficiencies are: Heat as primary energy form Electricity as primary energy form • 33% nuclear for electricity generation • 100% hydro • 10% geothermal for electricity generation • 100% wind • 50% geothermal for heat generation • 100% solar-PV IEA 2019. All rights reserved. 5b. Examples: primary energy equivalent calculation Primary energy equivalent Implied Efficiencies Energy Outputs 1 000 toe 1 000 toe 100% Wind Wind electricity 3 000 toe 1 000 toe 33% Nuclear Nuclear electricity 10 000 toe 1 000 toe 10% Geothermal Geothermal electricity 2 000 toe 1 000 toe 50% Geothermal Geothermal heat Primary energy equivalent = Energy outputs ÷ Implied efficiencies IEA 2019. All rights reserved. IEA energy Balance layout IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Key structural features of the IEA energy balance SUPPLY AND Coal Crude Oil Natural