8.0 SouthwestLynx Strategic Investments It would be nice to report that the creation of These are questions that should be addressed in the HSR SouthwestLynx can be achieved with a minimum of environmental assessment and which have so far been capital investment and a maximum of political good excluded. Given Canada’s lack of working examples, such cheer. It cannot. an analysis should include a comparison with similar multi-modal projects elsewhere, such as Northern SouthwestLynx will require a sustained program of California’s Capitol Corridor, which approximates the incremental capital investment, particularly on the rail ownership, distance and demographic conditions in rail side of the ledger. Southwestern Ontario’s public Southwestern Ontario. transportation system has been largely hollowed out through a lack of investment over many years. The first Specifying and quantifying the capital investments job must be repairing the deteriorated operation and involved in SouthwestLynx comes back to an then expanding the service offerings and their quality. examination of the three elements required to deliver its improved and integrated service: In any analysis of the efficacy of this recommended upgraded high-performance rail (HPR) service on investment, the central questions must be: • both existing Southwestern Ontario rail routes, • how do these costs and benefits compare with which are currently operated by VIA; those of the HSR proposal? • intercommunity transportation linking the trains • what are the ongoing societal and economic costs with off-line communities; and of doing nothing? • mobility hubs for seamless connectivity between the modes, including local transit. 72 While each is important on its own, it is only by tackling On the North Main Line, these points are Malton, all three elements in unison as part of a unified, multi- Brampton, Georgetown and the municipally-owned modal plan that the maximum benefits can be derived Guelph Central Station. The new municipally-owned from each. terminal in Kitchener will eventually provide the same level of intermodal connectivity as Guelph. On the Determining the precise capital portion of the South Main Line, the Metrolinx-owned intermodal intercommunity transportation component of terminals are Oakville and Aldershot. SouthwestLynx is not easy at this stage because it simply doesn’t exist today. Questions still need to be answered Elsewhere, modifications will be necessary to the VIA- concerning the routes, service levels, equipment and owned facilities at Stratford, Brantford, Woodstock, servicing facilities to be used. With the exception of the Ingersoll and London, as well as the six facilities west vanishing intercity bus services, crafting this network of there on both the Windsor and Sarnia routes. St. is a matter of starting from scratch. Such an exercise is Marys’ municipally-owned station will also require beyond the bounds of this report, although a suggested modification, although bringing intercommunity approach is covered in Chapter 9. transportation vehicles right to the building’s door may be problematic; on-street alternatives need to be The multi-modal terminal requirements are somewhat explored. easier to determine, if the assumption is made that all the points currently served by VIA are to be included. The stations on the Metrolinx-owned portions of the two Southwestern Ontario VIA routes are already equipped for relatively easy transfers between the trains and other public transportation services. 73 Southwestern Ontario Rail Passenger Service – 2018 ! !( Newmarket !(! Aurora ! !( !(Whitchurch-Stouffville !( !(! King City Bowmanville Orangeville ! ! ! !( Whitby !( !( ! ! Wingham Caledon !( ! !( ! !( Richmond Hill !( Markham!( Ajax !( Oshawa !( ! !( ! !( ! !( Vaughan!( !( Pickering!( !( ! !( !( !(!( !( !( !( !( Goderich !( !( !( !( Brampton!(!( !( !( !( Toronto !( !( !(! Halton!( Hills !( P GO TransitMetrolinx – Huron East ! !( !( !( Clinton ! ! Mississauga !( !( Goderich-Exeter Railway !( !( !( !( !!( Guelph !( !( ! Seaforth (! Milton !( !( Lake Ontario ! Oakville Bluewater !( ! Waterloo ! !(!( !(! Kitchener Lake Huron !( !( !( New Hamburg Stratford ! Cambridge !( Canadian National Exeter !( !(! ! Canadian Pacific Burlington!( ! ! South Huron !( !( Bayview Junction Niagara-on-the-Lake St. Marys ! ! !(! !( Hamilton !( Paris ! St. ! Stoney Creek !( Catharines Parkhill Grimsby ! ! Brantford !( Woodstock !(! ! Lincoln !(! Thorold !( ! ! Forest !( !( ! Niagara Falls Michigan Ingersoll !( !(! Welland Niagara Sarnia London ! River ! ! !( Strathroy !( !( !( !( !( !( !(!( !( !(! !( Southern !( Fort Erie Dunnville ! Ontario Railway ! Port Colborne Petrolia ! ! Tillsonburg ! Simcoe OntarioRailway Southland Inc. ! St. Thomas ! Aylmer ! !( Canadian Pacific !( !( Constraints (! Medium Range !( Canadian National (! Longer Range !( Stations Lake !( St. Clair Freight Chatham !( !!(!( Lake Erie Passenger St. Clair Railways Windsor Beach Short Line Railways ! !( ! ! VIA Rail Canadian National Tecumseh ! Belle River !( Canadian Pacific ! GO Transit – Metrolinx Lakeshore Goderich-Exeter Railway Ontario Southland Railway Inc. Southern Ontario Railway Amherstburg New York VIA Rail ! Oxford County Boundary Canada-USA Border Kingsville ! ! Leamington 0 5 10 20 30 40 Pennsylvania Kilometers ³ Ohio 74 Southwestern Ontario Rail Passenger Service – 2018 ! !( Newmarket !(! Aurora ! !( !(Whitchurch-Stouffville !( !(! King City Bowmanville Orangeville ! ! ! !( Whitby !( !( ! ! Wingham Caledon !( ! !( ! !( Richmond Hill !( Markham!( Ajax !( Oshawa !( ! !( ! !( ! !( Vaughan!( !( Pickering!( !( ! !( The capital requirements for the HPR !( !(!( !( !( !( !( Goderich !( component are easier to specify because they !( !( !( Brampton!(!( !( !( are based on the optimization of an existing !( Toronto !( !( !(! Halton!( Hills !( P GO TransitMetrolinx – system; the constraints and needs are well Huron East ! !( !( !( Clinton ! ! Mississauga !( !( known. Although VIA, Metrolinx, CN and other Goderich-Exeter Railway !( !( !( !( !!( Guelph !( !( Canadian railways guard their data closely, ! Seaforth (! Milton !( !( Lake Ontario order-of-magnitude costing is possible based ! Oakville Bluewater !( ! Waterloo ! !(!( on readily available data from similar projects !(! Kitchener Lake Huron !( !( !( elsewhere, particularly in the U.S. New Hamburg Stratford ! Cambridge !( Canadian National Exeter !( !(! ! Canadian Pacific Burlington!( One concern in presenting these costs is the ! ! South Huron !( recent Canadian experience with passenger- !( Bayview Junction Niagara-on-the-Lake St. Marys ! ! !(! !( related projects of this nature, which have Hamilton !( Paris ! St. ! become notorious for exceeding their budgets Stoney Creek !( Catharines Parkhill Grimsby ! ! Brantford !( and delivery schedules. A prime example is the Woodstock !(! ! Lincoln !(! Thorold Forest !( ! !(! ! !( capacity expansion plan initiated and funded Niagara Falls Michigan Ingersoll !( by VIA for CN’s Kingston Subdivision between !(! Welland Niagara ! Toronto and the Montreal area. This plan Sarnia London River ! ! !( Strathroy !( !( !( !( !( !( !(!( !( !(! !( Southern !( dragged on for several years and went from Fort Erie Dunnville ! Ontario Railway ! Port Colborne being a $251-million project to build 160 km Petrolia ! ! Tillsonburg ! of third main track, at an estimated cost of Railway Inc. Simcoe Ontario Southland ! $1.6 million per km, to one that cost $318.5 St. Thomas ! Aylmer ! million and produced only 70 km of additional !( track at $4.5 million per km. Canadian Pacific !( The Office of the Auditor General included this !( Constraints program in its 2016 special investigation of (! Medium Range VIA, following up on previous examinations, !( Canadian National (! Longer Range and reported: !( Stations Lake !( St. Clair Freight Chatham !( “Despite the measures taken by VIA to offset !!(!( Lake Erie Passenger St. Clair Railways these deficiencies, a number of the projects Windsor Beach Short Line Railways ! !( ! we examined incurred cost overruns and ! VIA Rail Canadian National Tecumseh ! Belle River !( Canadian Pacific significant delays in relation to what had ! GO Transit – Metrolinx Lakeshore Goderich-Exeter Railway been planned, which prevented the expected Ontario Southland Railway Inc. benefits from being obtained…. VIA Rail Southern Ontario Railway Amherstburg New York VIA Rail Canada Inc. should continue implementing ! Oxford County Boundary corrective measures concerning its project Canada-USA Border Kingsville ! Leamington ! management systems and practices in order to 0 5 10 20 30 40 Pennsylvania ensure that, for its future capital investments, Kilometers ³ it is able to reliably estimate costs, risks, and expected results, as well as manage projects Ohio within established budgets and timelines.” With this warning in mind, the following projects In terms of running time reductions, the first phase are considered essential to make rail an attractive, of SouthwestLynx should aim to at least deliver the affordable and swifter alternative to car travel. They improvements proposed by VIA in its 1989 Review of comprise a comprehensive series of improvements Passenger Rail Transportation in Canada. This report under a two-phase approach. The first phase would analyzed VIA’s nationwide services on a segment- cover both main lines from Toronto to London. by-segment basis and provided funding and service options for each. A second phase would carry the plan through to both Windsor and Sarnia. The Toronto-London projects