Transport Market Study ALPINE-WESTERN BALKAN RAIL FREIGHT CORRIDOR 10 Final Report Ljubljana, June 2019 Transport Market Study AWB RFC Transport Market Study: Alpine-Western Balkan Rail Freight Project title: Corridor 10 (AWB RFC) SŽ – Infrastruktura, d.o.o. Contracting authority: Kolodvorska 11 1000 Ljubljana Contract No.: 122/2018/22 Prometni institut Ljubljana d.o.o. Contractor: Kolodvorska 11 1000 Ljubljana Aleksandar Dobrijević, M. Sc. Econ. Mihaela Fridrih Praznik, B. Sc. Laws Mateja Hočevar, B. Sc. Econ. Blaž Jemenšek, M. Sc. Econ. Authors: Tadeja Ključevšek, B. Sc. Traffic Vlasta Miklavžin, M. Sc. Eng. Klemen Ponikvar, M. Sc. Traffic Klara Zrimc, M. Sc. Econ. Place and date: Ljubljana, June 2019 Project Manager: Manager: Aleksandar Dobrijević, M. Sc. Econ. Peter Verlič, D. Sc. June 2019 © Prometni institut Ljubljana d.o.o. i Transport Market Study AWB RFC CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................... 1 2 OBJECTIVE OF TRANSPORT MARKET STUDY ................................... 4 3 METHODOLOGY OF TMS PREPARATION ........................................... 5 3.1 BASELINES FOR THE TMS ELABORATION ............................................. 5 3.2 METHOD USED IN TMS ELABORATION .................................................. 7 4 AWB RFC DESCRIPTION .......................................................................... 8 4.1 LEGISLATIVE ASPECT OF AWB RFC ESTABLISHMENT ....................... 8 4.2 ALPINE-WESTERN BALKAN RFC GOVERANCE STRUCTURE .............. 9 4.3 ALPINE-WESTERN BALKAN RFC GRAPHICAL PRESENTATION ....... 12 5 ANALYSIS OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS .............................. 22 5.1 BASIC CHARACTERISTICS OF THE COUNTRIES OF THE AWB RFC . 23 5.1.1 Republic of Austria ........................................................................................ 23 5.1.2 Republic of Slovenia ...................................................................................... 24 5.1.3 Republic of Croatia ........................................................................................ 25 5.1.4 Republic of Serbia ......................................................................................... 26 5.1.5 Republic of Bulgaria ...................................................................................... 27 5.2 ECONOMIC INDICATORS ......................................................................... 28 5.2.1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ..................................................................... 28 5.2.2 Index of Economy Freedom (IEF), the Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) and Human Development Index (HDI) ................................................................. 31 5.2.3 Enabling Trade Index (ETI) ........................................................................... 33 5.3 REVIEW OF AWB RFC STATE MARKETS ............................................... 34 5.3.1 Austria ........................................................................................................... 34 5.3.2 Slovenia ......................................................................................................... 38 5.3.3 Croatia ........................................................................................................... 40 5.3.4 Serbia ............................................................................................................ 43 5.3.5 Bulgaria ......................................................................................................... 47 5.4 RELEVANT COUNTRIES WHICH ARE NOT PART OF THE AWB RFC 50 5.4.1 Germany ........................................................................................................ 50 5.4.2 Turkey ........................................................................................................... 51 5.4.3 North Macedonia ........................................................................................... 53 5.4.4 Greece ........................................................................................................... 54 5.4.5 Italy ............................................................................................................... 56 June 2019 Prometni institut Ljubljana d.o.o. ii Transport Market Study AWB RFC 5.4.6 Hungary ......................................................................................................... 57 6 ANALYSIS OF TRANSPORT AND TRAFFIC INDICATORS ............... 60 6.1 TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE OF THE AWB RFC COUNTRIES ...... 60 6.2 ANALYSIS OF TRANSPORT INDICATORS.............................................. 63 6.2.1 Austria ........................................................................................................... 64 6.2.2 Slovenia ......................................................................................................... 66 6.2.3 Croatia ........................................................................................................... 68 6.2.4 Serbia ............................................................................................................ 70 6.2.5 Bulgaria ......................................................................................................... 72 6.3 HISTORICAL ASPECT OF AWB RFC ........................................................ 74 6.3.1 Freight transport ............................................................................................ 74 6.3.2 Passenger transport ........................................................................................ 76 6.4 AWB RFC – RAIL TRANSPORT ANALYSIS ............................................. 77 6.4.1 Cross border sections ..................................................................................... 77 6.4.2 Freight volume .............................................................................................. 82 6.4.3 Passenger volume .......................................................................................... 89 6.4.4 Type of goods ................................................................................................ 93 6.4.5 Rail carriers ................................................................................................... 93 6.5 RAIL CARRIER DEMANDS........................................................................ 95 6.6 INTERMODAL TERMINALS AND MARSHALLING YARDS ................. 97 7 ANALYSIS OF AWB RFC RAILWAY INFRASTRUCTURE............... 102 7.1 TRANS-EUROPEAN TRANSPORT NETWORKS (TEN-T) ..................... 102 7.2 SINGLE-DOUBLE TRACK LINES ............................................................ 104 7.3 AXLE LOAD CATEGORY ........................................................................ 106 7.4 TRACTION SYSTEM................................................................................. 108 7.5 ERTMS - COMMUNICATION DEVICES ................................................. 110 7.6 ERTMS - ETCS ........................................................................................... 112 7.7 LINE SPEEDS ............................................................................................ 114 7.8 LINE GRADIENT ....................................................................................... 117 7.9 TRAIN LENGTH ........................................................................................ 119 7.10 CAPACITY CONSUMPTION .................................................................... 121 8 DEVELOPMENT OF RAIL FREIGHT TRAFFIC AND MAJOR TRADE FLOWS ALONG THE AWB RFC ........................................................... 123 8.1 REGIONS SERVED BY THE AWB RFC ................................................... 124 June 2019 Prometni institut Ljubljana d.o.o. iii Transport Market Study AWB RFC 8.2 LONG-DISTANCE TRANSPORT TRANSITING THE AWB RFC ........... 126 8.2.1 Turkey-EU international trade...................................................................... 126 8.2.2 China-EU international trade ....................................................................... 133 9 POSSIBILITIES TO SHIFT CARGO FROM ROAD TO RAIL ............ 137 9.1 COMBINED TRANSPORT ........................................................................ 137 9.2 TRANSPORT BETWEEN TURKEY AND THE EU .................................. 140 9.3 HGV TRANSPORT BETWEEN TURKEY AND THE EU ......................... 144 9.4 ACCOMPANIED RAIL TRANSPORT (RO-LA) ....................................... 148 9.4.1 Ro-La service between Slovenia and Austria ............................................... 148 9.4.2 Other Ro-La terminals along the AWB RFC ................................................ 152 9.5 PROMOTION/GOOD PRACTICE ON THE AWB RFC ............................ 153 9.6 GENERAL CONDITIONS TO SHIFT CARGO FROM ROAD TO RAIL .. 156 10 PROGNOSIS OF TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE DEVELOPMENT 161 11 CONNECTIONS WITH OTHER RFCS AND RAIL NETWORKS ...... 168 11.1 OTHER RFCS ............................................................................................. 168 11.2 TURKISH RAIL NETWORK ..................................................................... 171 12 FUTURE INVESTMENTS ON AWB RFC.............................................. 174 12.1 AUSTRIA ................................................................................................... 174 12.2 SLOVENIA ................................................................................................. 175 12.3 CROATIA 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