Directorate of Economic and Social Analysis Preliminary report of economic and social activities January to July 2017a Summary. The economy, measured by the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMAE), grew 5.85%, driven by the positive performance of activities such as Transportation, storage and communications, Construction and Exploitation of mines and quarries. Trade at the Colon Free Zone continued to grow, this has not happened since 2012; re-exports were B/.331.6 million or 5.7% more. The National Banking System continues with a positive return, the average liquidity index from January to July was 61.1%. The national inflation rate stood at 0.85%, slightly below the one in June (0.89%). The basic family food basket cost was B/.306.32 for the districts of Panama and San Miguelito, 27 products were cheaper; the average cost for the rest of the country was B/.281.02, where 20 food items became cheaper. mines and quarries, due to the demand for non-me- I. Economic Performance tallic minerals for building construction. 1.1 Monthly index of economic activity 1.2 Transportation, storage and commu- The monthly index of economic activity increased by nications 5.85% in the accumulated period from January to The Main Monthly Economic Indicators (PIEM) of July 2017 as compared to the same period of the pre- INEC recorded a vessel transit through the Panama vious year, in its original series, with the highest Canal of 8,163 ships between January and July of growth for the same period since 2013. The growth this year, 5.9% more. 86.7% were high-draft vessels, rate of IMAE, published by The National Institute of mainly container ships, gas carriers (liquefied petro- Statistics and Census (INEC) was similar to the one leum gas) and vehicle carriers. Meanwhile, revenues registered by the Gross Domestic Product in the first from tolls amounted to B/.1,317.8 million, 19.7% semester of this year (5.82%). more; cargo handling in net tons increased 28.1% Growth of the Monthly Index of Economic Activity: and volume increased by 25.1%. January to July 2014 – 2017 Given the level of confidence in the operation, the ad- (Percent) ministration and investments at the Panama Canal Authority, the Canal maintained in 2017 the risk rat- 5.85 ing of A- obtained from Standard & Poor's last year. The National Port System handled 49.7 million metric 4.36 4.40 4.24 tons of cargo, 15.1% more, about (15.5% more) of bulk cargo, (14.9%) in containers and (5.5%) general cargo. The quantity of containers moved (TEU) were 4.0 million, an increase of 12.5%. Vehicle handling also grew by 20.6%, attributed mainly to the port of Manzanillo International Terminal. 1.3 Hotels and Restaurants 2014 2015 2016 2017 4.6 million passengers arrived into the different ports in Panama, 31.9% were visitors and the rest passen- Source: National Statistics and Census Institute. gers in transit and crew. The visitors were distributed IMAE's most energizing activities that contributed to in: 1.1 million tourists (75.3% of the total), 139 thou- growth were: Transportation, storage and communi- sand hikers (9.4%) and 228 thousand cruise passen- cations, through the Panama Canal, the movement gers (15.3%), contributing with B/.2.9 million to the of cargo at the ports and passenger traffic by air national economy (0.6% more in relation with the transportation; Construction for public infrastructure same period of 2016). works and private buildings; and Exploitation of a Unless otherwise stated the changes indicated in this report are estimated in relation to the same period of the previous year. Página 1 November, 2017 Hotel main indicators: Puerto Rico (B/.318.6 million), Nicaragua (B/.54.2 Years 2016 and 2017 (P) million), United States (B/.31.9 million) and Chile (B/.31.8 million); where more medicines, electronic Daily Average items, vehicle parts, tobacco products, fragrances, Percentaje have been sent, among other. Hotel Year Occu- of room rooms Overnight Percentage change of some indicators for whole- pied occupancy stay sale and retail trade: rooms January-July 2014 - 2017 2016 10,458 5,103 10,749 48.8 2017 10,469 5,029 13,392 48.0 Indicator 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: National Statistics and Census Institute. Re-export value –ZLC -12.6 -11.0 -11.5 5.7 The hotels in Panama City offered 10,469 rooms, on Value of national im- average, a number that did not changed significantly ports ........................... 3.1 -11.6 -4.6 7.3 (0.1% more), although the percentage of room occu- Gallons of gasoline .... 8.4 9.1 8.7 6.3 pancy was 48.0% on average from January to July, Gallons of diesel ........ 22.0 -24.9 -1.2 7.8 1.5% less than the previous year, with less dyna- Gallons of liquefied mism in July (44.4%). gas ............................ 8.9 0.4 3.6 4.0 Automobile units ........ 4.7 9.1 6.8 -12.8 1.4 Construction Source: National Statistics and Census Institute. Number of projects, investment in construction and area: January to July 2013 - 2017a/ Wholesale merchants continued to sell more as shown by the increase of the value of imports by Investment Area (thou- B/.474.6 million or 7.3%. Consumer goods showed Number of Year (million of bal- sand square the most dynamic behavior (12.7% additional), espe- projects boas) meters) cially fuels (27.0% more) and semi-durable goods (7.0% more) and non-durable goods (6.9% more). 2013 7,252 955.8 2,028.7 Imports of raw materials (9.0%) also went up mainly 2014 7,268 1,155.7 2,344.2 due to construction materials (28.2% more). 2015 7,607 1,285.9 2,364.6 2016b/ 6,147 999.6 2,534.0 Regarding retail trade the monthly indicators showed 2017b/ 8,144 1,309.2 2,726.5 different behaviors. On one hand, fuel sales con- sumed most in homes and businesses continued to a/Corresponds to solicitations for construction permits in the following grow diesel 7.8%, gasoline 6.3% and liquefied gas to districts: Aguadulce, Arraiján, Colón, Chitré, David, La Chorrera, 4.0%. While vehicle sales totaled 33,781 units they Panamá, San Miguelito y Santiago. showed a decrease of 4,965 units or 12.8% com- b/Except San Miguelito district as information is not available at this pared to the same period of 2016, therefore showing time. a modest demand both from consumers and busi- Source: National Statistics and Census Institute. nessmen. Construction permits accounted to B/.1,309.2 million 1.6 Banking (31.0% or B/.309.7 million additional), due to signifi- cant increases in the value of housing (41.6%) and The National Banking System continues with a posi- commercial (16.8%) permits. With the exception of tive performance, showing levels of liquidity higher the districts of La Chorrera and Santiago (-14.2% and than required, so that the average index from Janu- -2.4%, respectively), the rest presented cumulative ary to July 2017 for the National Banking System was growth to July, mainly: Colón (64.2%) and Panama 61.1%. The liquidity for government banks was (34.8%), due to the increase in housing permits in 74.5%, followed by the private foreign banks with both areas. 67.4% while the local Panamanian private banks reg- istered 46.3%. 1.5 Wholesale and retail trade Trade at the Colon Free Zone continued to grow at the end of seven months of this year, this had not happened since 2012. Thus, re-exports totaled B/.6,136.4 million, B/.331.6 million or 5.7% more. The countries with the highest sales increases were: Página 2 November, 2017 Liquidity index of the National Banking System, by traded, bonds accounted to (B/.205.5 million) and day and month of information and by origin of the shares (B /.191.2 million). bank: Years 2016 and 2017 At the buyback, market B/.428.1 million were traded, 80% B/.416.3 million in buyback bonds and B/.11.8 million 65% in shares. 50% 1.8 Insurance 35% Average subscribed policies, Premium income and 20% Claims payments: 16 16 16 17 16 17 17 17 17 16 16 16 16 17 17 17 17 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - January to July 2016 and 2017 Jul Jul Oct Oct Apr Jun Jan Jan Jun - - Mar Feb Nov Aug Sep Dec May May - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 22 17 02 26 12 28 06 30 23 19 Million of balboas 23 19 15 08 13 30 06 Average of System Year suscribed Panamanian private policies Premium Claims Income Payments Source: Superintendence if Banks of Panama. 1.7 Stock Exchange 2016 1,445,495 811.8 320.0 2017 1,493,693 838.7 398.4 The number of transactions increased 6.7%, totaling 4,410 transactions between January and July 2017. Source: Superintendence of Insurance. Primary market volume traded securities amounted The insurance industry issued 1,493,693 policies, to B/.1,647.9 million, of which B/.1,026.1 million cor- 3.3% more than the number accumulated between responded to the private sector, especially Bonds January and July 2016. It also obtained a higher pre- (B/.441.6 million) and Commercial Negotiable Secu- mium income (3.3%) totaling B/.838.7 million. Loses rities (B/.438.5 million), in the latter there was an in- amounted to B/.398.4 million (an additional 24.5%), crease of B/.60.8 million or 16.1%.