I ETURN To JLE CfPY RESTRICTED REPORTS DESK Report No. TO-424b WITHIN ONE WEE9 | Public Disclosure Authorized This report was prepared for use within the Bank and its affiliated organizations. They do not accept responsibility for its accuracy or completeness. The report may not be published nor may it be quoted as representing their views. INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION Public Disclosure Authorized APPRAISAL OF A HIGHWAY PROJECT JAMAICA Public Disclosure Authorized March 19, 1965 Public Disclosure Authorized Projects Department CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS 1 1 US $2. 80 US $1 = 60.357 Fiscal Year - April 1 - March 31 JAMAICA APPRAISAL OF A HIG114AY PROJECT Table of Contents Page SUMMARY I. INTRODUCTION 1 II. BACKGROUND A. General 1 B. Transport in Jamaica 1 C. The Highway System 2 D. Transport in the Development Plan 4 III. THE PROJECT 5 A. Description 5 B. Design and Execution 6 C. Cost Estimates 7 D. Financing 8 IV. ECONOMIC JUSTIFICATION 8 A. Introduction 8 B. Future Traffic 9 C. The Individual Roads 9 V. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 10 List of Tables: 1. Motor Vehicles Registered, 1953-63. 2. Expenditures on Highways, 1958-64. 3. Revenues from Highway Transport, 1958-63. 4. Design Standards. 5. Estimated Cost of Project. 6. Estimated Average Daily Traffic, 1963-90. Annex: Organization Chart of Ministry of Communications and Works. Map: The Road Network JAMAICA APPRAISAL OF A HIGhWAY PROJECT SUMMARY i. Early in 1964 the Government of Jamaica asked the Bank to assist in financing its highway program. A Bank appraisal mission reviewed the program in March 1964. Later, in November 1964, the Government requested assistance in financing the construction and reconstruction of three sections of the high priority road from Kingston to the north which is included in its Highway Development Program. ii. The section from Kingston to Spanish Town (15 miles, h lanes) accounts for about 70 percent of Project costs; this is the most heavily travelled highway in Jamaica. The other two road sections are from Spanish Town to Bog Walk (7.5 miles, 2 lanes) and further north from Moneague to Crescent Park (4 miles, 2 lanes). iii. The estimated cost of the Project, amounting to US$11.0 million equivalent (including contingencies), is based partly on preliminary and partly on final engineering by the Ministry of Communications and Works and is reliable. The foreign component is estimated to range between 38 and 48 percent for the construction work, and about 60 percent for engineering. The proposed loan covers 50 percent of Project's total cost or US$5,5 million. iv. Contracts for construction of the works will be awarded on the basis of international competitive bidding, except for the Moneague - Crescent Park section which is considered too small to interest foreign contractors. Execution of the Project will be the responsibility of the MIinistry of Communications and Works. The Ministry is well organized and its staff is efficient. Since the Project will impose a very heavy work load on the Ministry, some additional full-time staff will be engaged by the GovernmXent to coordinate all aspects of the Project and outside consultants will also be retained to finalize the plans and contract docu- ments and supervise the execution of the Project. v. The construction of the road sections included in the Project will sharply reduce transport costs on some of the most heavily travelled road sections in Jamaica. The rates of return on the investments in the three road sections range from 10 to 25 percent,which is clearly satisfactory. vi. The Project provides a suitable basis for a Bank loan of US$5.5 million equivalent to the Government of Jamaica for a term of 25 years, including a 5-year period of grace. I. INTRODUCTION 1. The Government of Jamaica asked the Bank early in 1964 to assist in financing its highway program. A Bank appraisal mission reviewed the program in Jamaica in March 1964 and concluded that a number of projects, consisting of the construction to higher standard of three highway sections on the Kingston to Crescent Park Road, the replacement of the Olivier Bridge near- Morant Bay, and the preparation of a feasibility study of a future expressway would be suitable for Bank financing. (see Map). 2. The Government, after considering several solutions for financing this program, informed the Bank in November 1964 that it would limit its request for financial assistance to the three highway sections already proposed. The replacement of the bridge is being considered separately under a Canadian Aid program and the Government has postponed its decisien about proceeding with the feasibility study. 3. This report is based on the findings of the Bank appraisal mission and on documents prepared by the Jamaican Ministry of Communications and Works and by the Road Research Laboratory, an agency of the U.K. Government. A loan for the Project would be the first Bank loan to Jamaica. II. BACKGROUND A. General 4. Jamaica is an island with an area of 4,400 sq.miles, about 200 miles long and 22 miles wide on the average. It has a population of more than 1.7 million, and is thus one of the world's most densely populated countries. Jamaica's gross national product grew by about 7 percent annually between 1953 and 1960, but the growth slowed down to about 3 per- cent in recent years. The per capita income is about US$425 equivalent. The transport sector has accounted for about 17 percent of Jamaica's national product in recent years, an increase from 7 percent 10 years ago. 5. Geographically, Jamaica may be divided into three regions - the eastern mountains, the central and western plateau, and the coastal plains. The eastern mountains are so rugged that only one main road crosses them. The central and western plateau consists of limestock rock and contains the world's largest workable deposits of bauxite. The coastal plains vary in width from a few yards to several miles and contain some of the richest soils on the island. About two-fifths of the land is unproductive, largely due to the mountainous terrain. B. Transport in Jamaica 6. Highway transport is the backbone of Jamaica's domestic transpor- tation system (see Map). The railway, which is Government-owned, is important only for the transport of bauxite products. Scheduled domestic air service was begun in 1963 and is still on an experimental basis. Coastal shipping is virt.ually non-existent. 7. The railway was started in 1845 and has now 205 miles of line. In 1963 it carried about 1.3 million tons; the total traffic amounted to about 44 million ton/miles of freight. Bauxite products accounted for about 70 percent of freight revenues of B760,000, bananas for slightly less than 20 percent and the remainder was largely parcel traffic. Passenger traffic is less than 1 million per year, with revenues of about ;170,000. The railway has nearly always operated at a deficit; in 1963 total revenues were less than U1 million and the deficit was nearly L300,000. 8. The highway transport industry has expanded vigorously in the last 10 years (see Table 1). The motor vehicle fleet has increased from about 19,000 in 1953 to 72,000 in 1963, an annual increase of 15 percent. Jamaica can still expect a very substantial growth of highway transport. The increase in the last 5 years was actually slightly higher than in the preceeding 5 years; in 1963 there were about 24 inhabitants per vehicle, compared to 13 in Italy and 5 in France. 9. As in most developing countries, the trucking industry consists primarily of one-truck owner operators; there are only two small companies operating several trucks. There is no economic regulation of the industry; licenses are freely available to all who meet minimum safety standards and rates are not prescribed. Passenger service, on the other hand, is regulated and fares are set by the Government. 10. Road traffic legislation provides adequate regulation for the size and load capacity of vehicles. Axle loads are limited to 500 lb per inch width of tire. Many exceptions are granted for trucks to carry excessive weight, such as the carriage of bauxite or heavy equipment; this damages roads built several years ago to standards which are no longer adequate. l1. Transport coordination turns primarily on the question of what to do with the railway. The railway manager believes that serious consideration should be given to limiting the&railway to the transport of bauxite; this would permit closing a major part of the system. The Government, on the other hand, seems to fear the consequences of dismissing about 1,600 railway employees. In either event, the Project would not be affected significantly. C. The Highway System The Network 12. Jamaica's highway network is relatively extensive. It consists of 2,692 miles of the most important roads which are the responsibility of - 3 - the Ministry of Communications and Works and a small number of scattered agricultural and local roads, which are the responsibility of local authorities. The roads for which the Ministry is responsible are classified as follows: Length in Miles Gravel Asphalt National roads - 418 Main roads 149 357 Other roads 1,120 648 1,269 1,4723 The national and main roads are arterial and connect all the major towns and important agricultural and industrial areas; the others are feeder roads. Road Administration 13. The Ministry of Communications and Works exercises general direction and control over all transport and communications, including both their operation and construction (see attached organization chart).