RUSSIA IN DECLINE __________________________________________________ S. Enders Wimbush and Elizabeth M. Portale, Editors Foreword by Paul A. Goble Washington, DC March 2017 THE JAMESTOWN FOUNDATION Published in the United States by The Jamestown Foundation 1310 L Street NW Suite 810 Washington, DC 20005 http://www.jamestown.org Copyright © 2017 The Jamestown Foundation All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this book may be reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written consent. For copyright and permissions information, contact The Jamestown Foundation, 1310 L Street NW, Suite 810, Washington, DC 20005. The views expressed in the book are those of the authors and not necessarily those of The Jamestown Foundation. For more information on this book of The Jamestown Foundation, email [email protected]. ISBN: 978-0-9986660-0-6 Cover art provided by Peggy Archambault of Peggy Archambault Design. Jamestown’s Mission The Jamestown Foundation’s mission is to inform and educate policy makers and the broader community about events and trends in those societies which are strategically or tactically important to the United States and which frequently restrict access to such information. Utilizing indigenous and primary sources, Jamestown’s material is delivered without political bias, filter or agenda. It is often the only source of information which should be, but is not always, available through official or intelligence channels, especially in regard to Eurasia and terrorism. Origins Founded in 1984 by William Geimer, The Jamestown Foundation made a direct contribution to the downfall of Communism through its dissemination of information about the closed totalitarian societies of Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union. William Geimer worked with Arkady Shevchenko, the highest- ranking Soviet official ever to defect when he left his position as undersecretary general of the United Nations. Shevchenko’s memoir Breaking With Moscow revealed the details of Soviet superpower diplomacy, arms control strategy and tactics in the Third World, at the height of the Cold War. Through its work with Shevchenko, Jamestown rapidly became the leading source of information about the inner workings of the captive nations of the former Communist Bloc. In addition to Shevchenko, Jamestown assisted the former top Romanian intelligence officer Ion Pacepa in writing his memoirs. Jamestown ensured that both men published their insights and experience in what became bestselling books. Even today, several decades later, some credit Pacepa’s revelations about Ceausescu’s regime in his bestselling book Red Horizons with the fall of that government and the freeing of Romania. The Jamestown Foundation has emerged as a leading provider of information about Eurasia. Our research and analysis on conflict and instability in Eurasia enabled Jamestown to become one of the most reliable sources of information on the post-Soviet space, the Caucasus and Central Asia as well as China. Furthermore, since 9/11, Jamestown has utilized its network of indigenous experts in more than 50 different countries to conduct research and analysis on terrorism and the growth of al-Qaeda and al-Qaeda offshoots throughout the globe. By drawing on our ever-growing global network of experts, Jamestown has become a vital source of unfiltered, open-source information about major conflict zones around the world—from the Black Sea to Siberia, from the Persian Gulf to Latin America and the Pacific. Our core of intellectual talent includes former high-ranking government officials and military officers, political scientists, journalists, scholars and economists. Their insight contributes significantly to policymakers engaged in addressing today’s newly emerging global threats in the post 9/11 world. Table of Contents Acknowledgements………………………………………..…………….iv Foreword: Paul A. Goble………………………………………………….v 1. Introduction: S. Enders Wimbush…………………………………3 2. A Failing Economy i. Vladislav Inozemtsev: Russia’s Decline: Predictions and Recommendations……………………………………………..21 3. Spiraling Demography and Its Consequences ii. Ilan I. Berman: Russia’s Fraught Demographic Future……..35 iii. Nicholas Eberstadt: Demography and Human Resources: Unforgiving Constraints for a Russia in Decline……………54 4. The Disappearing Knowledge Economy iv. Harley D. Balzer: Russia’s Knowledge Economy Decline: Views From Inside……………………………………………113 v. Evgeny Vodichev: Russian Innovation System on a Decaying Trajectory: A Case Study of the Novosibirsk Region……...162 5. The Problematic Military vi. Pavel K. Baev: Military Force: A Driver Aggravating Russia’s Decline…………………………………………………………181 i ii | TABLE OF CONTENTS cont. vii. Stephen J. Blank: Can Russia Sustain Its Military Capability?…………………………………………………….190 viii. Pavel E. Felgenhauer: Russia’s Future: A Stability That Will Not Last, a Revolution That Will Not Win…………………213 6. The Unsolvable Islamic Factor ix. Marlène Laruelle: How Islam Will Change Russia………...225 7. The Shaky Federation x. Stephen J. Blank: Russian Writers on the Decline of Russia in the Far East and the Rise of China…………………………...255 xi. Andrei Piontkovsky: Life After Decline……………………..291 8. Avatar Politics and Degraded Culture xii. Irina Pavlova: Russia’s Decline as a ‘Brave Re-Stalinized World’………………………………………………………….303 xiii. Denis Volkov: Russia of the Mid-2020s: Breakdown of the Political Order………………………………………………...312 9. Russians’ Views of Russia’s Future xiv. Nikolay Petrov: What Does Russia’s Decline Look Like?……………………………………………………………323 xv. Anton Barbashin: Russia in Decline: Three Possible Scenarios for the Future………………………………………………….334 iii xvi. Vladimir Pastukhov: Russia Today: Three Horsemen of the Russian Apocalypse…………………………………………..343 xvii. Alexander Sungurov: Russia in Decline: Possible Scenarios……………………………………………………….352 Biographies……………………………………………………………..360 Acknowledgements The Editors would like to thank the following contributors to the project, whose work appears in this book, as well as those who provided expert analysis, context and strategic insight while participating in our workshops: Alex Alexiev, Harley D. Balzer, Pavel K. Baev, Anton Barbashin, Ilan I. Berman, Stephen J. Blank, Janusz Bugajski, James Clad, Svante E. Cornell, Willem de Vogel, Nicholas Eberstadt, Pavel E. Felgenhauer, Aaron L. Friedberg, Paul A. Goble, Vladislav Inozemtsev, Marlène Laruelle, Alexander J. Motyl, Tate Nurkin, Vladimir Pastukhov, Irina Pavlova, Nikolay Petrov, Andrei Piontkovsky, James Sherr, Alexander Sungurov, Evgeny Vodichev, Denis Volkov. We would also like to acknowledge Glen Howard, President of The Jamestown Foundation, for his support of the project; along with his staff, Matthew Czekaj, Alden Wahlstrom and Peter Wood, for their excellent copy editing, administrative support, publication assistance, and posting of materials to The Jamestown Foundation website. iv Foreword Decline, Decay and Disintegration: Russia’s Future in the 21st Century Paul A. Goble Russia currently faces three existential challenges that already point to its decline, decay and even disintegration in the coming decades. It has an economy oriented to the past rather than the future, one incapable of supporting a worthy standard of living for its people or even the plans of the Kremlin elite. It has a set of center-periphery relations in which Moscow increasingly views the regions and republics as burdens rather than partners, and the latter, in turn, view the center as an occupying power. And it has geopolitical ambitions which it is not in a position to support but that guarantee neither Russia nor its neighbors will be able to live in peace and prosperity in the coming decades. Any one of those challenges would be enough to be concerned about Russia’s prospects, but their coming together and the way in which Moscow’s approach in each not only is conditioned by but exacerbates the situation in the other two represent the coming of a perfect storm—one far more severe than that which tore apart the Soviet Union a generation ago. And because this trend will have consequences not only for the peoples within the borders of the Russian Federation and its neighbors but also for the United States, the West and the world as a whole, it is critically important to focus v vi | RUSSIA IN DECLINE precisely on what is going on. Namely, it will be important to recognize what would have to change in Moscow for this storm to pass with the least possible damage but also to be in a position to formulate the most thoughtful policies vis-à-vis Russia, whether or not this coming storm ultimately materializes. In this essay, I want to address only a small part of this enormous subject, parts of which are also addressed in the contributions to this book. First, I want to survey exactly what the three challenges to Russia now are and why they are existential rather than part of the normal run-of-the-mill difficulties any country faces. Second, I want to highlight the reasons why Moscow’s approach to each at the present time is making the situation in the other two worse, even as it does little to overcome the problems that approach is supposed to solve. And third, I want to distinguish among the three outcomes in my title—decline, decay and disintegration—because, while interlinked, they are not the same and have radically different causes and consequences. Three Existential Challenges The three existential challenges to Russia’s future exist because Moscow has made them so. It has treated the economy not as an engine