Public Policy Research Funding Scheme 公共政策研究資助計劃 Project Number : 項目編號： 2016.A8.051.16D Project Title : A Survey Experiment on Discontent Among the Youth: 項目名稱： Welfare or Politics? 青少年不滿源自福利或政治？一個實驗性問卷研究 Principal Investigator : Dr WONG Yee Hang, Mathew 首席研究員： 黃以恆博士 Institution/Think Tank : The University of Hong Kong 院校 ／智庫： 香港大學 Project Duration (Month): 推行期 (月) ： 12 Funding (HK$) : 總金額 (HK$)： 220,368.00 This research report is uploaded onto the website of the Policy Innovation and Co- ordination Office (PICO) for public reference. The views expressed in this report are those of the Research Team of this project and do not represent the views of PICO and/or the Assessment Panel. PICO and/or the Assessment Panel do not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this report. Please observe the “Intellectual Property Rights & Use of Project Data” as stipulated in the Guidance Notes of the Public Policy Research Funding Scheme. A suitable acknowledgement of the funding from PICO should be included in any publication/publicity arising from the work done on a research project funded in whole or in part by PICO. The English version shall prevail whenever there is any discrepancy between the English and Chinese versions. 此研究報告已上載至政策創新與統籌辦事處（創新辦）網站，供公眾查閱。報告 內所表達的意見純屬本項目研究團隊的意見，並不代表創新辦及／或評審委員會的意 見。創新辦及／或評審委員會不保證報告所載的資料準確無誤。 請遵守公共政策研究資助計劃申請須知內關於「知識產權及項目數據的使用」的 規定。 接受創新辦全數或部分資助的研究項目如因研究工作須出版任何刊物／作任何宣 傳，均須在其中加入適當鳴謝，註明獲創新辦資助。 中英文版本如有任何歧異，概以英文版本為準。 PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH FUNDING SCHEME “Welfare or Politics? A Comparative Analysis on Support for Redistribution and Political Discontent in Hong Kong” Final Report Project Number: 2016.A8.051.16D Project Title: “A Survey Experiment on Discontent Among the Youth: Welfare or Politics?” 青少年不滿源自福利或政治? 一個實驗性問卷研究 Principal Investigator: Dr Wong, Yee Hang Mathew 黃以恆博士 Institution/Think Tank: The University of Hong Kong 香港大學 Project Duration (Month): 12 Funding (HK$): 220,368 (i) Abstract Young people in Hong Kong present a real challenge to the society, and the society does not seem to understand them very well. On the one hand, their discontent about the current economic environment are regarded as evidence of their lack of competitiveness, unwillingness to work hard, and heavy reliance on government support in multiple aspects such as housing. On the other, the recent social movements demonstrated the dissatisfaction of the youth towards social and political development in Hong Kong. Yet, this was again met with criticisms from the society about their idealism and reluctant to be realistic and make concessions. The two irreconcilable images of the youth exemplify our lack of understanding of their source of dissatisfaction. More critically, is it primarily about material wellbeing or is it politically-driven? It is evident that young people are not content about their current situation and the society in general, but will they be satisfied simply with a better provision of welfare, or only with a more fundamental change in the society? The difficulty in 1 answering question lies in the fact that the two areas are naturally intertwined, and even the young people themselves might not be able to tell the difference. By applying a survey experiment on young people in Hong Kong, this research seeks to understand their real source of discontent and what factors affect their view towards welfare provided by the government. Most significantly, this research aims to suggest potential ways for the government to improve youth policies and achieve good governance. (i) 摘要 當下的年青人是香港社會的一項挑戰，但社會對年青人的認識十分有限。一方面，年青人對現 時的經濟環境不滿，被認為是他們缺乏競爭力、不願努力及在各方面(如住屋)過度依賴政府的 寫照。另一方面，近年的社會運動清楚反映年青人對社會及政治發展的不滿。這卻又被社會各 界批評為過度理想化及不願作出現實的妥協。這兩種矛盾的青年人的形象顯示我們對他們的不 滿之源未有充份理解。最關鍵的問題是，他們究竟因為物質上的享受或是政治上的訴求不滿？ 年青人表達對社會的各種不滿，但這會否單單因為增加了福利而減少，還是必須對社會有更深 層的改變？因為政治和經濟的緊密關係，這問題毫不容易解答，甚至連年青人自己亦未必能夠 清楚分辨。這個研究就是希望透過一份實驗性問卷，探討香港年青人不滿的根源，以及研究什 麼因素會改變他們對政府提供的福利的看法。本研究項目希望藉此幫助政府改善青年政策及達 致良好管治。 (ii) Background of research Youth in Hong Kong are characterised by two conflicting stereotypes both of which convey them as showing stronger signs of political discontent compared to other population sectors. The first image of young people are they are passive players in society who are socially uncompetitive and who heavily rely on government welfare. It was observed that over the years, the city saw a rise in the number of university students and graduates applying for public housing (Ming Pao, 13 January 2015). With a growing divide between the rich and poor and a society faced with problems of worsening inequality, youth discontent with a lack of opportunities and social mobility may increase their demand for government assistance and welfare policies. This is perhaps the reason why young people in Hong Kong are generally characterized by a low level of subjective wellbeing According to a survey conducted by the Central Policy Unit in 2015, among the 15-19 age group, only 14.1% expect a better future personal development, and less than 20% are satisfied with the opportunities in Hong Kong. 2 In contrast, the second image of youth in Hong Kong is very different. This stereotype suggests that young people are quite politically active and take it upon themselves to fight for their ideals, be it democracy, freedom, or a better living environment. As shown by large-scale social movements in recent years, a vast majority of participators were young people which indicates the scale of discontent felt by this population. However, the source of their dissatisfaction is not clear. While such social movements were very much political in nature, it may also have had underlying economic motives. This brings to light the possibility of young people conveying economic dissatisfaction through policy and government opposition. These contrasting images of young people in Hong Kong are at the base of this research as although their demands are very different (materialistic versus idealistic), they demonstrate a common discontent towards the government and/or the society. To better understand why young people are dissatisfied, and whether the source of their discontent comes from welfare or politics, this research proposes a conceptual framework consisting of three components, building on a study conducted on the general population of Hong Kong by Wu and Chou (2015). First, youth's welfare preference, in other words, the extent to which they support a higher level of welfare provision is identified through the use of a self-administered survey. Findings provide insight on whether young people in Hong Kong are really in need of government assistance as commonly believed, and also identifies the factors which can explain the level of welfare support. Second, the level of discontent towards different areas of governance, namely welfare, opportunities in society, quality of governance, and the system design itself is assessed. This provides a more comprehensive picture in understanding the areas in which young people are most concerned about, and whether it is primarily related to material wellbeing or politically oriented. However, simply drawing a conclusion from these two sections ignores the implicit role played by political assessment. As respondents are likely to have their attitudes on welfare spilling-over into politics, and vice versa, this study introduces a vignette treatment to unpack the relationship between the two to see if the source of youth discontent has more to do with welfare or politics. (iii) Summary on policy implications and recommendations This study provides a deeper understanding on youth attitudes towards politics and welfare in Hong Kong. It aims to assess why young people are allegedly dissatisfied with their government/society and where the source of discontent stems from. The political attitudes of young people reflect their different needs and principles. On one hand, the youth can be viewed from a materialistic and passive perspective in which they rely on government assistance for their welfare due to a lack of social mobility. Another view points towards an idealistic perspective where young people actively 3 participate to demonstrate their ideals. This study seeks to find common factors at the roots of their discontent and whether young people ultimately care more about their personal wellbeing or politics. Testing this target population on the relationship between welfare attitudes and youth discontent enables policymakers to gain insight into the reasons behind youth demand for government assistance and their dissatisfaction with social and political issues. This project finds that the youth‟s perception of welfare provision is heavily affected by economic ideology, such as whether they feel there is enough social mobility. However, their support towards a specific policy initiative is influenced by political factors. Even if they are expected to benefit from the policy, if they are dissatisfied with the government, they will discount the level of support towards a government-backed policy. The findings demonstrate that the grievances of the youth is multidimensional, not merely materialistic. Therefore, a reliance on welfare provision cannot be expected to resolve the problem. Instead, it is suggested that the government should focus on improving social relations, (re-)building trust with the youth, and building a consensus across the society. In particular, it is recommended that the existing youth consultation and participation channels should be revamped/enhanced. Specific to Hong Kong‟s housing policy, the government also has