Y Pwyllgor Cyfrifon Cyhoeddus | Public Accounts Committee PAC(4)-06-16 P2 CARDIFF AIRPORT EXPRESS (T9) EXTERNAL MINISTERIAL REVIEW Prepared by: Professor Stuart Cole CBE BA MSc FCILT FICE Emeritus Professor of Transport University of South Wales 24 January 2014 CAE T9 Rpt Minister v8 FINAL 24Jan14 CONTENTS 1 TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR THE REVIEW ........................................................................... 4 2 CARDIFF AIRPORT EXPRESS T9 – THE ROUTE ................................................................... 6 3 REVIEW TO DECEMBER 2013 AND ACTION PLANS 2014 - 2018 ...................................... 7 3.1 EFFECTIVENESS TO DECEMBER 2013 – THE FIRST FIVE MONTHS ....................... 7 3.2 ACTION PLAN – SHORT TERM (2014) ................................................................................ 8 3.3 ACTION PLAN – ACHIEVING LONG TERM SUSTAINABILITY ..................................... 10 4 BACKGROUND / SETTING UP THE SERVICE ...................................................................... 13 4.1 CREATING THE CARDIFF AIRPORT EXPRESS ............................................................. 13 4.2 RECENT OPERATIONS: DIRECT SERVICE TO CARDIFF AIRPORT ......................... 14 4.3 CONTRACTUAL ARRANGEMENTS ................................................................................... 15 4.4 TIMING OF SERVICE COMMENCEMENT......................................................................... 16 5 CURRENT PERFORMANCE – THE EFFECTIVENES OF THE CURRENT SERVICE (August 2013 – December 2013) .................................................................................................. 18 5.1 CURRENT OPERATIONAL ROUTE .................................................................................... 18 5.2 OPERATIONAL PERFORMANCE (Reliability, timekeeping) ........................................... 18 5.3 FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE ............................................................................................... 20 5.4 PASSENGER DEMAND ......................................................................................................... 22 5.5 ACHIEVING THE GOVERNMENT’S OBJECTIVES – CONCLUSIONS ON CURRENT PERFORMANCE ........................................................................................................................... 26 6 CHANGES TO IMPROVE EFFECTIVENESS ........................................................................... 28 6.1 WELSH GOVERNMENT EXPECTATIONS ........................................................................ 28 6.2 PASSENGER SERVICE QUALITY EXPECTATIONS / CRITERIA ................................ 28 6.3 CARDIFF AIRPORT EXPRESS T9 – A NEW BUSINESS ............................................... 30 6.4 BUSINESS GROWTH ............................................................................................................ 31 6.5 SPECIFIC MARKET SEGMENTS TO TARGET ................................................................ 32 6.6 ACTION PLAN – MARKET OPPORTUNITIES .................................................................. 34 7 LONG TERM SUSTAINABILITY OF THE CAE T9 SERVICE................................................ 37 7.1 SUMMER TIMETABLE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE CAE T9 MARKET .......................... 37 7.2 LONG TERM PASSENGER FORECAST ........................................................................... 41 7.3 FARES ...................................................................................................................................... 43 7.4 TIMETABLE OPTIONS: CARDIFF AIRPORT EXPRESS T9 ........................................... 44 2 7.5 INTERCHANGE CONNECTIONS ........................................................................................ 47 7.6 ROUTE OPTIONS ................................................................................................................... 50 7.7 VEHICLE QUALITY / DESIGN .............................................................................................. 51 7.8 MANAGEMENT OF CARDIFF AIRPORT EXPRESS (T9) ............................................... 53 7.9 BRANDING ............................................................................................................................... 53 7.10 LONG TERM SUSTAINABILITY – CONCLUSION .......................................................... 55 APPENDICES..................................................................................................................................... 57 APPENDIX 1 ................................................................................................................................... 57 APPENDIX 2 ................................................................................................................................... 58 3 1 TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR THE REVIEW I have been asked to report to the Minister for Economy, Science and Transport by 24 January 2014 on: The effectiveness of the new Cardiff Airport Express bus service, the T9, (referred to as CAE T9 in this review) in delivering the Welsh Government (WG) objectives for a fast and frequent service running between Cardiff city centre and Cardiff Airport Any changes that should be made to improve its effectiveness – this could include consideration of the frequency of service, stopping pattern, route, fares and ticketing options and marketing of the service The long term sustainability of the service and how this can be maximised To match these categories the review has been structured under five main headings: Background – Setting up the Service Effectiveness of the current service (August 2013 – December 2013) – First Five Months Performance Improvement in service effectiveness (from January 2014) – Immediate Action Analysis of market opportunities and market data Long term sustainability of the service (2015 – 2018) ‘Effectiveness’ in this review is defined as: achieving the WG’s objective for a fast and frequent bus service running between Cardiff Airport and the city centre; costs and market demand levels comparisons of the subsidy level with other bus services creating and achieving market opportunities for business growth increasing passenger levels; comparing these with the performance of other services both to / from airports and other newly created bus operations comparing operating frequencies with current and future demand and with other airport services The review was commissioned to examine the service, its performance to date and its future in economic, market and operational terms as they relate to Cardiff Airport and how the Cardiff Airport Express (CAE T9) achieves the Welsh Government 4 policy objective ‘for a fast and frequent service running between Cardiff city centre and Cardiff Airport’. However comments have been made about the operation of the CAE T9 service by local residents and Members of the National Assembly unhappy about the reductions in local bus services and commenting on the “lack of passengers” on the CAE T9. Following several requests this review has considered the issue of providing a service for non-airport passengers although it was outside the review terms of reference. The rationale and conclusions on such an operation so far as was possible in this review are in Appendix 2. For brevity abbreviations have been used for Welsh Government (WG) and the Vale of Glamorgan County Council (VoGC) METHODOLOGY I used two well established analytical frameworks in organising the material for this review. I created the 4I’s to provide a transport specific analytical tool aimed at achieving integrated transport for travellers (for the British Tourist Authority 1992). The marketing 4P’s has been long established for more general consumer market research. Integration – the 4I’s Information, Interchange, Investment, Imagination Marketing – the 4P’s Product, Price, Place Promotion In preparing this review I interviewed all the interested parties (see list Appendix1) to obtain their views on the operation of the service, possibilities for improving effectiveness and to obtain financial and passenger data. I am very grateful for the time and assistance which they all gave. I was provided with all the information I requested where it existed by the Welsh Government (WG), Vale of Glamorgan Council (VoGC), Cardiff City Council, Cardiff Bus Station, Cardiff Airport, Bus Users Cymru, First Cymru Buses the operator of the Cardiff Airport Express, Cardiff Bus, NAT and other bus operators in Wales, England and Scotland and Traveline Cymru I would emphasise however that the conclusions and recommendations are mine alone assessed independently as the Minister requested Professor Stuart Cole CBE, BA, MSc, FCILT, FICE 24 January 2014 5 2 CARDIFF AIRPORT EXPRESS T9 – THE ROUTE Figure 1: Route Map Cardiff Airport Express T9 service 6 3 REVIEW TO DECEMBER 2013 AND ACTION PLANS 2014 - 2018 3.1 EFFECTIVENESS TO DECEMBER 2013 – THE FIRST FIVE MONTHS Background The Cardiff Airport Express T9 (CAE T9) commenced on 1st August 2013 following a Welsh Government policy decision in June 2013 to operate a fast and frequent service between Cardiff city centre and Cardiff Airport The timescale allowed limited new market research but sufficient expertise was available within government (together with the bidding operators with experience of operating airport services or services in the Vale of Glamorgan) to set a tendering process in motion. August is not an ideal time to begin a new airport service. The high season is coming to a close and most leisure travellers