TURKEY'S NOVEMBER 2002 ELECTIONS: A NEW BEGINNING? By Ali Carkoglu* Turkey's November 2002 elections ended with a stunning victory for the new Justice and Development Party. Since only one other party reached the 10 percent minimum necessary to hold seats in parliament, the victorious group was left with close to a two-thirds' majority. This article analyzes the meaning of the election, the fate of the different parties, and the attitudes of the electorate Turkey's November 3, 2002, general about 39 percentage points of electoral elections ended with a predicted but still support from the April 1999 elections. impressive victory for the Justice and The two major opposition parties did not Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkinma perform much better. While the pro-Islamist Partisi-AKP), the first party since 1987 to Felicity Party (Saadet Partisi-SP) suffered a secure a clear majority in Parliament. The loss of 12.9 percentage points, the True rapid rise of AKP support marks another Path Party (Dogru Yol Partisi-DYP) lost step in the electoral collapse of centrist 2.5 percentage points. Besides CHP and politics in the country. The left-leaning AKP and to a lesser degree the Democratic Republican People’s Party (Cumhuriyet People’s Party (Demokratik Halk Partisi- Halk Partisi-CHP) is the only other party DEHAP), all opposition parties incurred passing the 10% nationwide electoral significant losses of electoral support. support threshold to gain seats in the Consequently, all the leaders of those losing Parliament. AKP got about 34 % of the centrist parties, except the leader of the SP, votes compared to 20% for CHP. The were forced to step aside. remaining 46% of votes did not elect The leadership of the winners seems anyone since all other parties did not gain committed to integrating Turkey into the minimum 10% needed. (See Table 1 Europe. However, their religiously below). conservative constituency is known to be The incumbent government's coalition skeptical toward EU membership. From the members suffered the heaviest losses. perspective of economic interests, AKP Compared to the 1999 election, the largest supporters seem to reflect resurgent incumbent coalition partner, the Democratic conservative Anatolian capital against the Left Party (Demokratik Sol Parti-DSP), secular establishment of Istanbul, the shrunk down to about 1.2%. It may have set largest city of Turkey. The influence of a world record for being the largest party in upwardly mobile Anatolian firms may aim one election and losing almost all its to shift the power balance in their favor support in the next one. Among the other through advocating irresponsible populist coalition partners, the Nationalist Action social and economic policies together with Party (Milliyetci Hareket Partisi-MHP) lost revitalized pro-Islamist actions and a push 9.6 percentage points, while the junior for private business gains through access to partner the Motherland Party (Anavatan or effective control of the government. Partisi-ANAP) lost 12.9 percentage points. If AKP does not keep a neutral stand in Hence, the coalition partners together lost such a power struggle among the top Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 6, No. 4 (December 2002) 30 Turkey's November 2002 Elections: A New Beginning? economic players it would be politically post-1980 Turkish party system. The self-destructive since the perception of electoral preferences reflected in election honesty is one of its main attractions. The outcomes are very volatile. On average, corruption associated with the previous over the more than half-century of liberalization period under the centrist competitive multi-party elections, nearly ANAP and DYP was one of the main 23% of the electorate changes its reasons for declining trust in the centrist preferences from one party to another in parties among the electorate. each election. In the early 1980s high Besides the issue of EU membership-- volatility was primarily due to a changing which the AKP leadership started to push as menu of parties facing the electorate due to soon as their electoral victory became the closing and merging of different parties. certain--a number of other issues present However, for at least the last three the new government with potentially elections--1995, 1999 and especially in explosive problems. Most obvious among 2002-- we observe that the electorate shifts those are the long-lasting Cyprus conflict from one party to another for reasons other and the impending military engagement in than the nonexistence of a previously Iraq. available party. On the domestic front, AKP’s Given the available election results and consultative meetings with a wide variety of expectations concerning the impact of civil society organizations seem to have continuing economic crisis on party pleased public opinion as a first step in the preferences, it should be hardly surprising direction of a more inclusive and open that an even higher level of volatility government. At the same time, though, the compared to 1999 preferences took place in AKP's overwhelming power coupled with November 2002. As Table 1 below shows, its Islamist politics could create serious nearly half of the electorate seem to have internal conflicts. In short, the message of shifted from one party to another from the the election may either be the end of 1999 to the 2002 elections. If we divide the politics in Turkey as it has been practiced party system into four ideological groups-- for decades, or a temporary deviation, extreme left, center-left, center-right, and which voters will reverse at the next pro-Islamist and nationalist party groups-- opportunity. we observe that about 20% of the voters This article provides a short overview of seem to have switched from one group to the main characteristics of the Turkish party another between the1999 and 2002 system and electoral behavior. The elections. Besides CHP, and DEHAP, November 2002 election is evaluated in which inherited its predecessor HADEP’s light of these historical patterns. Next, the electoral tradition of representing Kurdish campaign period will be critically ethnicity in the country, there are no parties considered and linked to characteristic which gained on their 1999 vote level. AKP patterns of the Turkish party system. and the Young Party (Genc Parti-GP) are Finally, I will venture into a speculative the other two newly established parties that appraisal of the near-term implications of gathered significant electoral support. GP the new AKP government. was the dark horse of the November 2002 elections and relied on no previous electoral PARTY SYSTEM tradition. AKP clearly had the RP/FP CHARACTERISTICS AND VOTE constituency as their target and competed DETERMINANTS with the SP for that base. In short, Looking at the Turkish electoral scene increasing volatility seems to benefit new after the November 2002 elections and right-of-the-center parties. trying to foresee what lies beyond, one In 2002 the pro-Islamist and nationalist needs to bear in mind characteristics of the group of parties peaked in electoral support 31 Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 6, No. 4 (December 2002) Ali Carkoglu reaching nearly 53%, an all-time high in support for getting representation in the Turkish politics. As such, this group is parliament, more and more parties were about 3.3 times larger than the center-right able to attract voters’ support in elections parties and about 2.5 times larger than the and ultimately winning representation. This center-left parties. However, the real is usually achieved by splits in parties after question is whether and when will the elections. Factions that could not get 10% electoral support become consolidated and nation-wide support first get in on a party stabilized behind these new parties. If the list and then become independents or create past pattern continues, the next election is a smaller party. Larger centrist parties could bound to create not only some deterioration get representatives of smaller fractions into of electoral support for AKP but rather a the parliament under an umbrella ticket. major one creating yet another new right- However, they could not keep them under of-center winner. the same umbrella for long since their Table 1: Election results and aggregate party system characteristics 1999-2002 Seats in the Vote Share (%) % wins Parliament and 1999 2002 losses 1999 2002 Democratic Left Party (Demokratik Sol Parti-DSP) 22.19 1.22 -20.97 136 0 Nationalist Action Party (Milliyetci Hareket Partisi-MHP) 17.98 8.34 -9.64 129 0 Virtue Party (Fazilet Partisi-FP)* 15.41 2.48 -12.93 111 0 Motherland Party (Anavatan Partisi-ANAP) 13.22 5.13 -8.09 86 0 True Path Party (Dogru Yol Partisi-DYP) 12.01 9.55 -2.46 85 0 Republican People's Party (Cuhuriyet Halk Partisi-CHP) 8.71 19.40 10.69 0 178 People's Democarcy Party (Halkin Demokrasi Partisi-HADEP)** 4.75 6.23 1.48 0 0 Grand Unity Party (Buyuk Birlik Partisi-BBP) 1.46 1.02 -0.44 0 0 Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi-AKP) 0.00 34.28 34.28 0 363 Young Party (Genc Parti-GP) 0.00 7.25 7.25 0 0 Independents*** 0.87 0.99 0.12 3 9 Total 96.60 95.89 550 550 Other Parties 3.40 4.11 0.71 Volatility 20.15 50.91 **** Fractionalization 85.15 81.44 ***** % of vote unrepresented in the Parliament (%) 18.32 45.33 Extreme-Left (EL) 6.02 7.27 Center-Left (CL) 31.35 21.77 Center-Right (CR) 26.77 16.13 Pro-Islamist & Nationalist (PIN) 34.85 53.37 Ideological Volatility 12.70 20.00 **** *In 2002 Felicity Party (Saadet Partisi-SP) **In 2002 Democratic People's Party (Demokratik Halk Partisi-DEHAP) ***In 1950 9 independents gained seats in the Parliament, in 1954 10 and in 1969 13 independents won seats.