list’ contains the most dangerous threats to the existence of the USA and Western world. The former Soviet Union had the Ashton B. Carter, William J. Perry capability to destroy Western values and (1999). Preventive Defense: A Western order, but such an enemy to the New Security Strategy for West no longer exists. The major part of US America. defense planning is now directed towards maintaining the capability to wage two Washington: Brookings Institution major theater wars. Such regional contin- Press. pp. 243. gencies might endanger American interests ISBN 0-8157-1308-8 and security, but would not question the existence of the United States. Therefore, wars of this type can be categorized in belonging to the ’B-list’ of threats. Public The United States of America is found- interest seems to be oriented mostly ing its national security and military strate- towards the activities that deal with the ’C- gies on three groups of activities, called list’ of threats, like those in Bosnia- preparing, shaping and responding. Herzegovina or Kosovo. However, the ’A- Responding capability refers to current list’ may not remain clear forever. One of readiness of the armed forces to engage the most important goals of the American and successfully annihilate open threats to security system is to keep the ’A-list’ clear national security. That readiness was as long as possible. Dr Perry and Dr Carter assessed during the nineties according to argue that this is the essential element of the military capability in successfully waging the preventive defense strategy, which they and winning two almost simultaneous major theoretically developed at Harvard and theater wars, like the one in Korea and in Stanford universities and practically The Gulf. The preparing aspect of the strat- applied during their terms in the US gov- egy refers to modernization, restructuring ernment. and continuous adaptations of the national Questions such as How might the security system, in order to maintain its high post-cold war era end? How can the readiness and effectiveness against possible United States prolong this period of future challenges. The development, acqui- peace and influence? How can we sition and exploitation cycle for major ensure that if it must end, it ends grace - weapon systems lasts for twenty to thirty or fully, without cataclysm? and What is more years. That is only one of the many the character of the era that will follow reasons why today’s decisions have far- it? define the fundamental long-term reaching consequences for the capabilities strategic challenges of the post-cold war of the armed forces in the next decades. era. The authors have identified five chal- Environment shaping, sometimes called lenges of that type, which might evolve into luck management, is also a way to prepare the ’A-list’ of threats. They defined these for the future. It consists of active engage- dangers as follows: ment in world affairs to prevent the devel- - Russia might descend into chaos, iso- opment of new major threats to American lation, and aggression as Germany did and international security. after World War I; With the fall of the Berlin Wall the only threat from the ’A-list’ disappeared. The ’A- - Russia and the other Soviet successor 215 Book Reviews A.B. Carter, W.J. Perry states might lose control of the nuclear requires fostering military-to-military coop- legacy of the former Soviet Union; eration, promotion of the Partnership for - China could grow hostile rather than Peace Program, careful NATO enlarge- becoming cooperatively engaged in ment, officer education, and appropriate the international system; economic assistance. In the case of pre- venting nuclear technology proliferation - Weapons of mass destruction will from the former USSR, the expert and eco- proliferate and present a direct military nomic assistance offered through the threat to the United States; and Nunn-Lugar program provided for denu- - “Catastrophic terrorism” of unprece- clearization of the Ukraine, Belarus and dented scope and intensity might occur Kazakhstan. Intercontinental ballistic mis- on US territory. siles are dismounted, nuclear material is If the US responds to these dangers in centrally stored, and employment pro- the right manner, it will be possible to real- grams for nuclear scientists are launched. ize George C. Marshall’s vision of the An important element of these efforts is world not of threats to be deterred, but of a arms control negotiations, which resulted world “united in peace, freedom, and in START treaties. These negotiations prosperity.” This is where the sixth key should be continued. threat to American security lies. That threat American relations with China are not lies in ignoring the previously identified five sufficiently developed. Under the preven- potential dangers because of temporarily tive defense agenda, direct military cooper- advantageous power relations in the world. ation with China should be initiated, and Each chapter in the book is dedicated China should be more actively involved in to one of the six security challenges. The the search for solutions to global security chapters start with vivid and lively memo- issues. Preventive defense against weapons ries of Mr Perry at an event during his term of mass destruction should rely not only on as the Secretary of Defense, which is rele- international anti-proliferation treaties, vant to the topic. The main part of each inspections and sanctions for those who do chapter consists of the problem analysis, not obey prescribed norms of behavior. investigation of possible preventive strate- Active and passive defense measures must gies, description of already taken steps, be developed, and unstable regions should and recommendations for future action. be stabilized to decrease the incentive for These discussions are case studies of pre- proliferation and acquisition of nuclear, ventive defense mechanisms. To be suc- chemical or biological weapons. cessful, preventive defense must combine Regarding the prevention of cata- all the instruments of foreign policy: politi- strophic terrorism, the intelligence collec- cal, economic and military. The exact type tion system should be restructured, new of actions and means used in a particular analytical capabilities established, and new situation will depend on the circumstances, and more effective methods for tracking but because of the character of activities and prevention of that dangerous threat and capabilities of the American armed invented. Finally, preventive defense forces, preventive defense falls primarily applied to the American armed forces is into the military domain. embodied in the preparing activities. The In the case of Russian and Central important role in that area is technological European stabilization, preventive defense modernization coupled with appropriate 216 NATIONAL SECURITY AND THE FUTURE 1(1) 2000. doctrine improvements and force restruc- of NATO. In their view, that would help to turing (which together forms the revolution avoid additional complications in relations in military affairs ). Equally important are with Russia, while at the same time provide the changes in management of defense some of the advantages that eastern assets (so called revolution in business European countries expect from gaining affairs), and sustainment of personnel NATO membership. quality, training and motivation. However, a more profound lesson of The book deserves careful reading, the book may be in the method that the because the problems described do not authors use to contemplate strategic prob- only influence United States security, but lems of national security. Elements of this the stability of the whole international com- approach are: the classification of threats; munity as well. The book will have signifi- focus on those threats that might cause the cant impact because of the high-quality most serious consequences; the assess- analysis provided and because of personal ment of shaping options and means; ana- influence of its authors. Dr Perry and Dr lytical thinking; integration of all elements Carter today jointly lead a research project of national power; and long-term planning. at Harvard and Stanford universities on Such an approach is applicable to improve preventive defense. Apart from being dis- the international and national security of tinguished professors, they share significant many countries in different positions, and experience in public service, industry and not only of a global power such as the academia. It should be mentioned that United States. William Perry served as the US Secretary of Defense from 1994 to 1997, and that Dr Prof. dr. sc. Krešimir Æosiæ Carter acted as Assistant Secretary for mr. sc. Draen Penzar Defense Policy in the same term. It was the Institute for Defense Studies, time when the first Quadrennial Defense Research and Development Review was prepared, which defined pre- Ministry of Defense, ventive actions aimed at shaping security Republic of Croatia environment as one of the three pillars of Bijenièka 46, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia national security strategy. e-mail: dpenzar @public.srce.hr The book is also thought provoking for readers from a small country such as the Republic of Croatia. The book shows how a global power like the United States views its own and global security in the coming decades. Due to the power and influence of the United States in the international community, its positions often define the frame for political activities to other play- ers. In that sense, the authors’ observations on NATO enlargement and the role of the Partnership for Peace are especially inter- esting. The authors pledge for the increased role of the PfP, which is too mar- ginalized, and for the slower enlargement 217 Book Reviews A.B. Carter, W.J. Perry ply a ruse or a constitutional sham aimed at reducing the power of the centre. He then proceeds to critique the proposals for Robert M. Hayden (1999). a new constitutional arrangement and ter- Blueprints for a House Divided: ritorial delimitation for the Republic of The Constitutional Logic of the Bosnia and Herzegovina under the aus- Y ugoslav Conflicts .