PUBLIC SERVICE COMMISSION OF MARYLAND TEN-YEAR PLAN (2011 – 2020) OF ELECTRIC COMPANIES IN MARYLAND Prepared for the Maryland Department of Natural Resources In compliance with Section 7-201 of the Maryland Public Utilities Article February 2012 State of Maryland Public Service Commission Douglas R. M. Nazarian, Chairman Harold D. Williams, Commissioner Lawrence Brenner, Commissioner Kelly Speakes-Backman, Commissioner W. Kevin Hughes, Commissioner David J. Collins Gregory V. Carmean H. Robert Erwin Executive Secretary Executive Director General Counsel 6 St. Paul Street Baltimore, MD 21202 Tel: (410) 767-8000 www.psc.state.md.us This report was drafted by the Commission’s Energy Analysis and Planning Division (Crissy Godfrey, Director), in cooperation with the Engineering Division (Jerry Hughes, Chief Engineer). Electric companies under the Commission’s jurisdiction provided most of the data in the Appendix. TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION ...............................................................................................................................1 II. MARYLAND UTILITY AND PJM ZONAL LOAD FORECASTS...............................................3 A. Introduction...................................................................................................................................... 3 B. PJM Zonal Forecast.......................................................................................................................... 4 C. Maryland Company Forecasts.......................................................................................................... 5 III. REGIONAL GENERATION AND SUPPLY ADEQUACY IN MARYLAND..............................7 A. Introduction...................................................................................................................................... 7 B. Maryland Generation Profile: Age and Fuel Characteristics........................................................... 9 C. Potential Generation Additions in Maryland.................................................................................. 13 D. CPCN Exemptions for Generation................................................................................................. 15 IV. TRANSMISSION INFRASTRUCTURE: PJM, MARYLAND, AND NATIONAL...................19 A. Introduction.................................................................................................................................... 19 B. Eastern Interconnection Planning Collaborative ............................................................................ 19 C. The Regional Transmission Expansion Planning Protocol ............................................................ 20 D. Transmission Congestion in Maryland........................................................................................... 22 E. High Voltage Transmission Lines in PJM ..................................................................................... 24 V. DEMAND RESPONSE AND CONSERVATION AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY ....................26 A. Statutory Requirements.................................................................................................................. 26 B. Demand Response Initiatives......................................................................................................... 28 C. Energy Efficiency and Conservation Programs ............................................................................. 34 D. Advanced Metering Infrastructure / Smart Grid ............................................................................ 37 E. Mid-Atlantic Distributed Resources Initiative ............................................................................... 42 VI. ENERGY, THE ENVIRONMENT, AND RENEWABLES...........................................................42 A. The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative........................................................................................ 42 B. The Renewable Energy Portfolio Standard Program ..................................................................... 44 C. Solar Power Requirements in Maryland ........................................................................................ 49 VII. ELECTRIC DISTRIBUTION RELIABILITY IN MARYLAND.................................................51 A. Electric Distribution Reliability Reporting, Operation and Maintenance ...................................... 51 B. Distribution Reliability Issues........................................................................................................ 53 C. Managing Distribution Outages ..................................................................................................... 58 D. Distribution Planning Process ........................................................................................................ 60 VIII. MARYLAND ELECTRICITY MARKETS....................................................................................63 A. Status of Retail Electric Choice in Maryland................................................................................. 63 B. Standard Offer Service................................................................................................................... 65 IX. REGIONAL ENERGY ISSUES AND EVENTS ............................................................................66 A. Overview of PJM, OPSI, and Reliability First............................................................................... 66 B. PJM Summer Peak Events of 2010 and 2011 ................................................................................ 68 C. PJM’s Reliability Pricing Model.................................................................................................... 69 D. Region-Wide Demand Response in PJM Markets ......................................................................... 71 X. PROCEEDINGS BEFORE THE FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION .....72 i APPENDIX Table A-1: Utilities Providing Retail Electric Service in Maryland................................. 74 Table A-2: Number of Customers by Customer Class as of December 31, 2010 ............ 75 Table A-3: Typical Monthly Electric Bills in Maryland (Winter 2010)........................... 76 Table A-4(a): System Wide Peak Demand Forecast as of December 31, 2010 (MW) (Net of DSM Programs).................................................................................................... 77 Table A-4(b): Maryland Peak Demand Forecast as of December 31, 2010 (MW) (Net of DSM Programs) ........................................................................................................ 78 Table A-4(c): System Wide Peak Demand Forecast as of December 31, 2010 (MW) (Gross of DSM Programs) ........................................................................................ 79 Table A-4(d): Maryland Peak Demand Forecast as of December 31, 2010 (MW) (Gross of DSM Programs).................................................................................................... 80 Table A-5(a): System Wide Energy Sales Forecast (GWh) (Net of DSM Programs)...... 81 Table A-5(b): Maryland Energy Sales Forecast (GWh) (Net of DSM Programs) ........... 82 Table A-6: Maryland Licensed Electric/Natural Gas Suppliers and Brokers as of December 1, 2011 ..................................................................................................... 83 Table A-7: Transmission Enhancements by Service Area ............................................... 89 Table A-8: Renewable Projects Providing Capacity and Energy to Maryland Customers as of December 31, 2010 .......................................................................................... 94 Table A-9: Power Plants in the PJM Process for New Electric Generating Stations in Maryland as of December 31, 2010.......................................................................... 95 ii LIST OF MAPS, FIGURES, TABLES, AND CHARTS Map I.1: Maryland Utilities and their Service Territories in Maryland............................. 2 Figure II.A.1: PJM Maryland Forecast Zones ................................................................... 3 Table II.B.1: Summer Peak Load (MW) Growth Rates .................................................... 4 Table II.B.2: Winter Peak Load (MW) Growth Rates....................................................... 5 Table II.C.1: Comparison of Maryland Peak Demand Forecasts ....................................... 6 Table II.C.2: Comparison of Maryland Energy Sales Forecast.......................................... 6 Table III.A.1: State Electricity Imports (Year 2009) (GWh)............................................. 8 Table III.B.1: Maryland Generating Capacity Profile (Year 2010)................................... 9 Table III.B.2: Maryland Electric Power Generation Profile (Year 2009) ....................... 11 Table III.B.3: Generation by Owner, County, and Capacity (Year 2010)....................... 12 Table III.C.1: PJM Transmission Queue Active New Generating Capacity ................... 15 Table III.D.1: Construction Approvals for CPCN Exempt Generation........................... 17 Table III.D.2: Number and Capacity in MW of CPCN Exempt Generating Units by Energy Resource ....................................................................................................... 18 Table V.B.1: Utilities’ Incentives to DLC Program Participants .................................... 29 Table V.B.2: Utilities’ Direct Load Program Installations; Program-to-Date as of December