Thailand’s Foreign Policy in Southeast Asia under the Abhisit Vejjajiva Government (2008-2011): Continuity or Change? Jutamanee Samakkeenit A thesis in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy School of Social Sciences Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences The University of New South Wales August 2014 THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES Thesis/Dissertation Sheet Surname or Family name: Samakkeenit First name: Jutamanee Other name/s: Abbreviation for degree as given in the University calendar: PhD School: School of Social Sciences Faculty: Arts and Social Sciences Title: Thailand’s Foreign Policy in Southeast Asia under the Abhisit Vejjajiva Government (2008-2011): Continuity or Change? Abstract This thesis is an analysis of Thailand’s foreign policy under Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva (2008-2011). It examines Thai foreign policy towards Cambodia, Malaysia, and Myanmar in the context of political transition in Thailand. It seeks to answer the following research questions: Were there any aspects of the Abhisit administration’s foreign policy that differed significantly from that of his predecessors? What were the major factors, both domestic and external, that impacted on Abhisit’s foreign policy decision-making? In answering these two questions, this thesis uses neoclassical realism as a theoretical framework to analyse Abhisit’s foreign policy. This thesis comprises three case studies: the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia over the Preah Vihear temple, Abhisit’s Malaysia policy in relation to the separatist insurgency in southern Thailand, and Abhisit’s policy towards democratisation in Myanmar. Through the analysis of the three case studies, this thesis concludes that throughout the Abhisit administration, despite rhetorical differences, continuity was the hallmark of Thailand’s relationships with neighbouring countries. Furthermore, this thesis argues that Abhisit’s foreign policy was largely influenced by domestic political considerations, rather than external factors. In other words, although external or international pressures were significant, they were not the primary determinants of Abhisit’s foreign policy. Specifically, a prolonged confrontation between the pro- and anti-Thaksin forces, the persistence of the Thai military’s influence on politics, the continued separatist violence in southern Thailand, and Thai economic interests in Cambodia, Malaysia, and Myanmar were the major factors influencing Abhisit’s foreign policy decision-making. In terms of external factors, the competing nationalisms in the region, the political circumstances in Cambodia, Malaysia, and Myanmar, and the inherent weakness of ASEAN cohesion were the primary factors influencing relations between Thailand and its neighbouring countries. Declaration relating to disposition of project thesis/dissertation I hereby grant to the University of New South Wales or its agents the right to archive and to make available my thesis or dissertation in whole or in part in the University libraries in all forms of media, now or here after known, subject to the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968. I retain all property rights, such as patent rights. I also retain the right to use in future works (such as articles or books) all or part of this thesis or dissertation. I also authorise University Microfilms to use the 350 word abstract of my thesis in Dissertation Abstracts International (this is applicable to doctoral theses only). …………………………………………… ……………………………………..……………… ……….………………… Signature Witness Date The University recognises that there may be exceptional circumstances requiring restrictions on copying or conditions on use. Requests for restriction for a period of up to 2 years must be made in writing. Requests for a longer period of restriction may be considered in exceptional circumstances and require the approval of the Dean of Graduate Research. FOR OFFICE USE ONLY Date of completion of requirements for Award: ORIGINALITY STATEMENT ‘I hereby declare that this submission is my own work and to the best of my knowledge it contains no materials previously published or written by another person, or substantial proportions of material which have been accepted for the award of any other degree or diploma at UNSW or any other educational institution, except where due acknowledgement is made in the thesis. Any contribution made to the research by others, with whom I have worked at UNSW or elsewhere, is explicitly acknowledged in the thesis. I also declare that the intellectual content of this thesis is the product of my own work, except to the extent that assistance from others in the project's design and conception or in style, presentation and linguistic expression is acknowledged.’ Signed ……………………………………………............. Date …………………………………………….............. i COPYRIGHT STATEMENT ‘I hereby grant the University of New South Wales or its agents the right to archive and to make available my thesis or dissertation in whole or part in the University libraries in all forms of media, now or here after known, subject to the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968. I retain all proprietary rights, such as patent rights. I also retain the right to use in future works (such as articles or books) all or part of this thesis or dissertation. I also authorise University Microfilms to use the 350 word abstract of my thesis in Dissertation Abstract International (this is applicable to doctoral theses only). I have either used no substantial portions of copyright material in my thesis or I have obtained permission to use copyright material; where permission has not been granted I have applied/will apply for a partial restriction of the digital copy of my thesis or dissertation.’ Signed ……………………………………………........................... Date ……………………………………………........................... AUTHENTICITY STATEMENT ‘I certify that the Library deposit digital copy is a direct equivalent of the final officially approved version of my thesis. No emendation of content has occurred and if there are any minor variations in formatting, they are the result of the conversion to digital format.’ Signed ……………………………………………........................... Date……………………………………………......................... ii Acknowledgements The completion of this thesis would have been impossible without assistance from the following people. First, I am most grateful to my supervisor, Andrew Tan, who has given me so much of his time and support in every way possible to ensure that the thesis is completed. For me, it is an honour and privilege to be supervised by him. Next, I would also like to thank my co-supervisor, Andrea Benvenuti, for his insightful comments and kind support along the way. Great thanks to Chris Walkers, Paul Jones, and Rogelia Pe- Pua for their suggestions during my annual review meetings. I am also grateful to staff members of the UNSW Learning Centre, notably Sue Starfield, Jamie Roberts, Bronwen Phillips, and Linda Burnett, for their academic support. Thank you also to my PhD friends, especially Finance Dechsakulthorn, Rabia Ali, Siriwimon Na Chiangmai, Somruedee Khongput, Suna Kyun, Rattana Yawiloeng, and Veronica Yang, for their friendship and counsel. In Thailand, I am thankful to Naresuan University for providing me a scholarship. Without its financial support, I would not be able to come to study in Australia. I should also thank Napisa Waitoolkiat and Pitch Pongsawat for giving me suggestions on my proposal. I also thank my friends at Christ’s Vision Church in Phitsanulok for their prayers. In Sydney, I am thankful to John and Lisa Rhodes as well as my friends at Hope Sydney Church. I am also grateful to Onanong Nopkhun and Pisupa Yuwanond for their generosity in allowing me to stay with them. My deepest gratitude goes to my parents for their love and encouragement. I am especially indebted to my mother for her love that gives me strength to continue doing my thesis. Thank you also to my sister and my brother-in-law, Joe and Todd, and my brother, Jack, for their unwavering support in all my endeavours. Also, I am so blessed to have my mother-in-law taking a very good care of my son. Thanks to my little boy, Joseph, for letting mommy to come to study in Sydney. I also thank my best friend in the world, my husband, Chumpol Sripraparkorn, for his love and understanding, which guided me through the difficult periods. Most importantly, I thank him for always believing in me. iii Last but not least, I thank God who led me to this point and will lead me in the future. Thank God for his unconditional love, blessings, hope, and spiritual guidance. All things are possible through him. iv Abstract This thesis is an analysis of Thailand’s foreign policy under Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva (2008-2011). It examines Thai foreign policy towards Cambodia, Malaysia, and Myanmar in the context of political transition in Thailand. It seeks to answer the following research questions: Were there any aspects of the Abhisit administration’s foreign policy that differed significantly from that of his predecessors? What were the major factors, both domestic and external, that impacted on Abhisit’s foreign policy decision-making? In answering these two questions, this thesis uses neoclassical realism as a theoretical framework to analyse Abhisit’s foreign policy. This thesis comprises three case studies: the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia over the Preah Vihear temple, Abhisit’s Malaysia policy in relation to the separatist insurgency in southern Thailand, and Abhisit’s policy towards