CIRES annual report 2010 cooperative institute for research in environmental sciences Cryospheric and Polar Processes | Environmental Chemistry Ecosystem Science | Solid Earth Sciences | Weather and Climate Environmental Observations, Modeling, and Forecasting i COOPERATIVE INSTITUTE FOR RESEARCH IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Agreement No. NA17RJ1229 University of Colorado at Boulder UCB 216 Boulder, CO 80309-0216 Phone: 303-492-1143 Fax: 303-492-1149 email: [email protected] http://cires.colorado.edu CIRES Director Konrad Steffen CIRES Associate Director William M. Lewis, Jr. Annual Report Staff Suzanne van Drunick, Coordinator [email protected] Katy Human, Editor Steve Miller, Design Cover image shot by a camera aboard an unmanned aircraft system flying over Arctic sea ice, coutesy of NOAA. ii Table of Contents From the Director 2 Executive Summary and Research Highlights 4 Contributions to NOAA’s Strategic Vision 7 The Institute: Year in Review 12 Governance and Management 13 Organization 16 Funding 17 Creating a Dynamic Research Environment 18 CIRES People and Projects 22 Faculty Fellows Research 23 Scientific Centers 62 Western Water Assessment 72 Education and Outreach 74 Visiting Fellows 76 Innovative Research Projects 79 Graduate Student Research Fellowships 82 Diversity and Undergraduate Research Programs 83 Theme Reports 84 Advanced Modeling and Observing Systems 85 Climate System Variability 105 Geodynamics 121 Planetary Metabolism 123 Regional Processes 125 Integrating Activities 136 Project Lead Contacts 140 Measures of Achievement: Calendar Year 2009 142 Publications by the Numbers 143 Refereed Publications 144 Non-Refereed Publications 162 Honors and Awards 170 Service 172 Communication 178 Appendices 180 Personnel Demographics 181 Acronyms 182 CIRES Annual Report 2010 1 From the Director CIRES researchers are excited to face the challenge of creating a new climate service, which will engage our cross-disciplinary research teams in cryosphere, biosphere, atmosphere, geosphere, and hydrosphere sciences. 2 CIRES Annual Report 2010 A new climate service has been proposed for the United States. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administra- tion Climate Service, modeled loosely on the 140-year-old National Weather Service, would provide forecasts and in- formation to farmers, regional water managers, emergency responders, infrastructure planners, and the many other sectors affected by changing climate conditions. Meeting the needs of these and other users of climate informa- tion will be an enormous challenge. The first eight months of 2010 tied the same period in 1998 for the warmest combined land and ocean surface temperature on record worldwide. The June-August summer was the second warmest on record globally after 1998, and this August was the third warmest on record. Climate variability and change are impacting our society and the environment. Commerce, public health, natural resources, and major economic sectors, such as water utilities, energy, transportation, agriculture, forestry, and fisheries are highly sensitive to climate influences. The researchers at the Cooperative Institute for Research in En- vironmental Sciences (CIRES) in collaboration with our NOAA colleagues are excited to face the challenge of creating a new cli- mate service, which will engage our cross-disciplinary research teams in cryosphere, biosphere, atmosphere, geosphere, and hy- drosphere sciences. Just last year, the National Research Council published a report on restructuring federal climate research to ing the Colorado River in drought years (Mr. Bradley meet the challenges of climate change, one of the most impor- Udall and Dr. Balaji Rajagopalan), to name a few. tant global environmental problems facing the world today. We welcome a new CIRES tenure-track faculty research- CIRES shows a healthy growth both in funding and research er, Dr. Maxwell Boykoff, Assistant Professor in the De- personnel. We had a remarkable increase of 10 percent in partment of Environmental Studies and a new member research funding in FY10, with equal parts for the cooperative of the CIRES Center for Science and Technology Policy research with NOAA and the remaining funding sources from Research. This increases our tenure track faculty lines NSF, NASA, and the University of Colorado, totaling over $58.8 in the graduate school to 22 in eleven different depart- million. Our research productivity remains very strong with 579 ments and programs in the colleges of Arts and Sciences peer-reviewed publications in all the major research journals of and Engineering and Applied Science. our disciplines. The strong research funding and stellar publica- This report summarizes ongoing research in six research tion record are the fruits of truly dedicated researchers (464) themes: advanced modeling and observation systems, and excellent administrative staff (30), working with over 100 climate system variability, geodynamics, planetary graduate students as one team to advance our knowledge and metabolism, regional processes, and integrating activi- understanding in environmental sciences. CIRES has grown to ties. Further, it provides a brief overview of research a 664-person institute and we continue to remain a world leader conducted by 38 CIRES Fellows, the research activi- in interdisciplinary research. ties of CIRES’ five scientific centers, the Western Water CIRES researchers and staff received a total of 44 awards, rang- Assessment, and education and outreach. Our research ing from Professor of Distinction by the CU-Boulder College is broad, deep, and innovative, and I am very proud to of Arts and Sciences (Dr. John Wahr), Recognition by Rear present you this report. Admiral Jonathan Bailey for the development of the NOAA Re- The annual report is a collaborative effort of a number search Fleet Air Emission Study (Dr. Daniel Lack), NASA Group of people in CIRES—researchers as well as administra- Achievement Award for participating in the 2008 Newly-Oper- tive staff—and they all deserve credit for what you will ating and Validated Instruments Comparison Experiment (Drs. find on the following pages. In particular, I would like Joshua Schwarz and Laurel Watts), the Governor’s Award for to acknowledge the effort of Dr. Suzanne van Drunick, Research Impact (Dr. Robert Sievers), and the Partners in Con- Dr. Katy Human, and Mr. Steve Miller, who were instru- servation Award from the U.S. Department of Interior for work mental in coordinating this effort. Enjoy your reading! developing innovative, new operational guidelines for manag- CIRES Annual Report 2010 3 Executive Summary and Research Highlights CIRES: Science in Service to Society The Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental CIRES completed the new Scientific Workplan for the Sciences (CIRES) at the University of Colorado at Boulder 27-month period from 1 July 2010 to 30 September 2012, has been a world leader in interdisciplinary research and based on the extension award for Cooperative Agreement teaching since 1967 when it was established as NOAA’s NA10OAR4320142. The Workplan describes the proposed first cooperative institute. In service to society, CIRES collaborative research, according to themes outlined in the researchers use established and innovative approaches to Agreement, which will be undertaken during this time- study all aspects of Earth system science. This summary frame. For each of the proposed research projects, the goal, highlights many of the past year’s activities and research approach, and milestones are described in detail. accomplishments, demonstrating how CIRES continues to The University of Colorado reviews all departments and help NOAA meet its strategic goals and how CIRES con- institutes every seven years. The review process, called tinues to communicate its research findings to help inform ARPAC (Academic Review and Planning Advisory Com- decision makers and the public about how to best ensure a mittee), allows the Boulder Campus to diagnose strengths sustainable environment. and weaknesses of primary administrative units. CIRES Among CIRES’ many accomplishments in FY10 was our underwent review during 2010. The review involves prepa- researchers’ quick-response science to evaluate air quality ration of a self-study document, a review by an internal concerns and other atmospheric effects of the Deepwater committee, and a review by an external committee. The Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. Next year’s Annual self-study and the two written reviews are submitted to a Report will include results from that mission, but it should Campus Review Board. The outcome of the review is a list be noted here that CIRES scientists successfully diverted a of requirements that must be addressed by the unit prior to sophisticated research aircraft (the NOAA WP-3D) to the the next review. CIRES’ 2010 review was laudatory. Gulf and conducted careful science in collaboration with The Western Water Assessment, a NOAA Regional Inte- the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the Occupa- grated Sciences and Assessments project created in 1999 tional Safety and Health Administration—and still man- as a joint effort with CIRES, successfully rebid and was aged to complete the mission goals of the California Nexus awarded its third five-year contract in 2009, and received campaign. That mission, reported upon in this document, additional funds from NOAA’s Climate Program Office for used many platforms to investigate the intersection of air work over two years on