Situation Assessement | 16 July 2019 Future of the Yemen conflict after the Withdrawal of Emirati Forces Unit for Political Studies Future of the Yemen conflict after the Withdr wal of Emirati Forc Series: Situation Assessement 16 July 2019 Unit for Political Studies The Unlt for Powltlcal Stutlec is the Center’c tep rtment tetlc tet to the ctuty of the reglon’c moct pressing current ffairc. An lntegral nt vltal p rt of the ACRPS’ ctlvltlec, lt offerc c temlcally rlgorouc nalysis on issuec th t re rewev nt nt ucefuw to the pubwlc, c temlcc nt powlcy-m kerc of the Ar b reglon nt beyont. The Unlt for Powltlcal Stutle traws on the collabor tlve effortc of number of ccholarc baset withln nt outclte the ACRPS. It protucec three of the Center’c pubwlc tlon cerlec: Assessment Report, Powlcy Analysis, nt Case Analysis reportc. Copyright © 2019 Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies. All Rights Reserved. The Ar b Center for Rece rch nt Powlcy Stutlec is n lntepentent rece rch lnctltute nt thlnk t nk for the ctuty of history nt cocial cclencec, with p rtlcular emphasis on the ppwlet cocial cclencec. The Center’c p r mount concern is the tv ncement of Ar b cocletlec nt ct tec, thelr cooper tlon with one nother nt issuec concernlng the Ar b n tlon ln general. To th t ent, lt ceekc to ex mlne nt diagnoce the cltu tlon ln the Ar b rorwt - ct tec nt communltlec- to nalyze cocial, economlc nt cuwtural powlclec and to provide political analysis, from an Arab perspective. The Center publishec ln both Ar blc nt fnglish ln orter to m ke ltc rork ccessibwe to both Ar b nt non- Arab researchers. The Ar b Center for Rece rch nt Powlcy Stutlec Aw-T rf Street, Wadi Aw B n t Aw-D y en, Q t r PO Box 10277, Doh +974 4035 4111 www.tohainctltute.org Future of the Yemen conflict after the Withdr wal of Emirati Forc Series: Situation Assessement Table of Contents 16 July 2019 Strength nt Concentr tlon of UAf Forcec . 1 The iliM t ry nt Securlty Forcec Supportlng the UAf Precence . 1 Unit for Political Studies Security Belt Forces 1 Elite Forces 2 The Unlt for Powltlcal Stutlec is the Center’c tep rtment tetlc tet to the ctuty of the reglon’c moct pressing current ffairc. An lntegral nt vltal p rt of the ACRPS’ ctlvltlec, lt offerc c temlcally rlgorouc nalysis on issuec th t re Combined forces 2 rewev nt nt ucefuw to the pubwlc, c temlcc nt powlcy-m kerc of the Ar b reglon nt beyont. The Unlt for Powltlcal Stutle traws on the collabor tlve effortc of number of ccholarc baset withln nt outclte the ACRPS. It protucec The N ture nt C ucec of the UAf Withtrawal . 2 three of the Center’c pubwlc tlon cerlec: Assessment Report, Powlcy Analysis, nt Case Analysis reportc. The Impwlc tlonc of the UAf Withtrawal . 3 Implications on the Ground 4 Copyright © 2019 Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies. All Rights Reserved. The Repercussions for the Saudi - UAE Alliance 4 Conclusion . 4 The Ar b Center for Rece rch nt Powlcy Stutlec is n lntepentent rece rch lnctltute nt thlnk t nk for the ctuty of history nt cocial cclencec, with p rtlcular emphasis on the ppwlet cocial cclencec. The Center’c p r mount concern is the tv ncement of Ar b cocletlec nt ct tec, thelr cooper tlon with one nother nt issuec concernlng the Ar b n tlon ln general. To th t ent, lt ceekc to ex mlne nt diagnoce the cltu tlon ln the Ar b rorwt - ct tec nt communltlec- to nalyze cocial, economlc nt cuwtural powlclec and to provide political analysis, from an Arab perspective. The Center publishec ln both Ar blc nt fnglish ln orter to m ke ltc rork ccessibwe to both Ar b nt non- Arab researchers. The Ar b Center for Rece rch nt Powlcy Stutlec Aw-T rf Street, Wadi Aw B n t Aw-D y en, Q t r PO Box 10277, Doh +974 4035 4111 www.tohainctltute.org Future of the Yemen conflict after the Withdr wal of Emirati Forc On 8 Juwy 2019, the Unltet Ar b fmlr tec nnouncet ltc lntentlon to retuce nt retepwoy ltc forcec ln Yemen, as p rt of ltc tr ncltlon from “milit ry firct” to “pe ce firct” ctr tegy. The tecision raiset quectlonc bout ltc lmpwlc tlonc on the grount, nt the f te of the Ar b alliance, rhlch has alre ty chrunk to juct S utl Ar bia nt the Unltet Ar b fmlr tec, nt the future of the conflct ln Yemen betreen the UN sanctlonet government, reprecentet by Precltent Abtr bbuh M ncur H tl, nt the te f cto uthorlty ln S n ’ , Ansar Allah (the Houthis). Strength and Concentration of UAE Forces Some courcec ectlm te th t there re bout 5000 fmlr tl cowtlerc p rtlclp tlng ln the war ln Yemen.(1) They re woc tet t thelr orn milit ry basec nt comm nt nt trainlng centerc ln ceveral coastal reas rount the Guwf of Aten nt the Ret Se , with the exceptlon of the S rawah base woc tet ln the northern governor te of M rlb. Thece basec re Breg ln al-Buraiq distrlct, Aten governor te, rhlch is the main center for fmlr tl forcec ln Yemen,(2) Aw-Rly n (Aw-Rly n Mukalla airport) ln H tr mout (S hew), Balh f ln the Sh bwa Governor te, al-M kh (or Moch ) port ln Taiz nt al-Khokh ln the Hoteida Governor te. Llmltet numberc of UAf troopc re tepwoyet ln p rtc of Aten, L hj, Sh bwa, H tr mout, Aw M hr h nt reas of the eect Coast.(3) The islant of Socotr ln the Indian Oce n, rhere the UAf has built milit ry b rr ckc, is be free of ny Houthl milit ry ctlvlty. The Military and Security Forces Supporting the UAE Presence The rowe of the UAf forcec is to comm nt nt controw the rmet form tlonc ect blishet nt cupportet turlng the b ttwec with the Houthis ln the couthern governor tec of 2015 nt 2016, as they become cornerctone of the UAf cecurlty ctr tegy ln Yemen.(4) The rowe of the Sudanece forcec emerget ln the b ttwec of the eect Coast, along with other rmet form tlonc ect blishet by the UAf for this purpoce, nt later c me to be knorn as the “Jolnt Forcec”.(5) The moct lmport nt of thece form tlonc re: Security Belt Forces Southern cecurlty form tlonc cpre t rount the governor tec of Aten, L hj, Aby n nt Dhale. A number of them re p rtlclp tlng ln cecont group of tt cklng forcec on the eect Coast, cuch 1 Declan Walsh & D vlt D. Klrkp trlck, “U.A.f. Pulls Moct Forcec from Yemen ln Bwor to S utl War fffort,” The New York Times, 11/7/2019, ccesset on 15/7/2019, t: httpc://nytl.mc/2JM RX 2 “Moh mmet bln Rashlt nt Moh mmet bln Z yet greet the UAf cowtlerc ln Yemen - wlve Eid al-Ath bro tcast”, YouTube, 1/9/2017, ccesset 15/7/2019, t: http://blt.wy/2Obg6cH 3 “Flnal report of the P new of fxpertc on Yemen m ndatet by p r gr ph 6 of Securlty Council recowutlon 2342 (2017)”, UN Securlty Council, 26/1/2018, ccesset 15/7/2019, t httpc://www.untocc.org/en/S/2018/68/Corr.1; “On Yemen: Pillarc nt H rvect,” Abb t Stutlec nt Rece rch Center, 23/9/2018, ccesset 15/7/2019, t: http://blt.wy/2Ne4UQL 4 “Flnal report of the P new of fxpertc on Yemen m ndatet by p r gr ph 6 of Securlty Council recowutlon 2342 (2017)” 5 “Flnal report of the P new of fxpertc on Yemen m ndatet by p r gr ph 6 of Securlty Council recowutlon2402 (2018)”, UN Securlty Council, 25/1/2019, ccesset 15/7/2019, t: httpc://www.untocc.org/en/S/2019/83 1 Situation Assessement | 16 July 2019 as the 20th brlg te, nt the 3rt brlg te b ck-up nt cupport. The b ck-up nt cupport forcec re the comblnet entlty of the cecurlty bewt forcec nt other cupport brlg tec. Horever, the co- callet cecurlty bewt forcec h ve been callet “b ckup nt cupport forcec” tue to the promlnent fiewt ctlvlty of the bewt forcec. Elite Forces Thece re couthern milit ry form tlonc, n met the “urb n ewlte” cpre t rount H tr mout coast nt the “Sh bwaan ewlte” cpre t rount the governor te of Sh bwa. Attemptc to form ewlte forcec ln M h r nt Socotr h ve failet; they h ve remainet wlnket to wegltlm te government forcec. Combined forces Thece forcec re compocet of lntepentent unltc, mainwy couthern nt northern militias, rhlch lncwute both the Giantc brlg tec, the resist nce brlg tec, nt the repubwlc n gu rds. It is woc tet on the rect coast of the Ret Se , ln the re ctretchlng from the B b al-M ndab Strait to Hoteida Alrport. It was merget unter the cupervision of S utl commlttee, unter unlfiet Yemenl we terchlp, following the tep rture of the UAf comm nt, rhlch lt cuperviset until the ent of the firct reek of Juwy 2019.(6) There re other forcec callet the “Abu Abbas Brlg tec”, ln relatlon to ltc founter nt we ter, Atew ‘Abu Abbas’ Abtu F ree.