India 2016 Population Transition Selected Papers of Bhopal Seminar 2016 Aalok Ranjan Binod Kumar Singh Editors MLC Foundation ‘Shyam’ Institute MLC Foundation 82, Aradhana Nagar, Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh-462003, India 91-755-4222756 ‘Shyam’ Institute 61 Phase II, Riviera Towne, Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh-462003, India Mudian Ka Kuan, Datia, Madhya Pradesh-475661, India 91-752-2234522 www.shyaminstitute.in India 2016: Population Transition © 2017 MLC Foundation All rights reserved. No part of the publication can be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means including photocopying, recording or any information storage and retrieval system without the permission in writing from MLC Foundation. Cover: Alekh ISBN: 978-92-82411-11-6 Rs 1100 Contents Introduction 1 Aalok Ranjan Demographic components of future population growth in 7 India Aalok Ranjan Factors influencing nutritional status of mothers and children 23 in major states of India Rajaram Yadav Chander Shekhar Level of immunisation among children aged 12-23 months in 41 Madhya Pradesh BP Thiagarajan Dynamics of population growth in Utter Pradesh: a study of 55 Moradabad Division Binod Kumar Singh Reena Singh Self reported health of family care givers and health of old 73 care receivers in urban India Dolly Kumari Hemkhothang Lhungdim Fertility transition in India. Emerging significance of 87 infertility and childlessness Koyel Sarkar Disability issues and concerns in India. An imperative call for 103 action Pritika Pariyar Gynecological morbidity in India. Level, patterns and 121 determinants. Archna Poonia Determinants of maternity care services utilised married 133 adolescents and young adults. A comparative study in India Abhishek Bharti Dharma Raj Brijesh P Singh Female workforce in Moradabad Division of Uttar Pradesh. A 143 Geographical Analysis Reena Singh Binod Kumar Singh Contributors Aalok Ranjan ‘Shyam’ Institute, Bhopal Abhishek Bharti Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi Archana Poonia Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi Binod Kumar Singh Directorate of Census Operations, Lucknow BP Thiagarajan The Nielsen Company, New Delhi Brijesh P Singh Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi Chander Shekhar International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai Dharma Raj Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi Dolly Kumari International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai Hemkhothang Lhungdim International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai Koyel Sarkar University Catholic De Louvain, Belgium Pritika Pariyar Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi Rajaram Yadav International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai Reena Singh Kumaun University, Nainital INDIA 2016: POPULATION TRANSITION ISBN 978-92-82411-11-6; PP:1-6 Introduction Aalok Ranjan The present monograph includes a selection of the research papers that were presented at the Annual Bhopal Seminar 2016: Population Transition in India - Opportunities and Challenges. The Seminar was organised by the ‘Shyam’ Institute at Bhopal during 14 through 16 January 2016. The present monograph is the tenth in the series of annual monograph published by the ‘Shyam’ Institute on the basis of the research papers presented at the Annual Bhopal Seminar on contemporary issues in population and development in India. The Annual Bhopal Seminar was instituted by the ‘Shyam’ Institute in 2007 to promote and facilitate research and debate on contemporary population and development issues. Over the years, the Annual Bhopal Seminar has emerged as an important platform for presenting and debating research related to population and development issues in India, especially for young researchers. This monograph includes ten research papers covering different aspects of population transition in India. The papers included in the monograph have been selected from the papers presented at the Annual Bhopal Seminar 2016 on the basis of a three-step selection process. The first step of the selection process involved the Chairperson and the Rapporteur of different technical sessions of the Annual Bhopal Seminar 2016 who were requested to select at the most two research papers presented in the technical session. On the basis of the recommendations put forward by the Chairperson and the Rapporteur of each technical session, the presenting author of the research paper was informed about the selection of the paper for publication in the monograph and was asked to submit the revised paper on the basis of the discussions and deliberations at the Seminar for consideration to publish the paper in the monograph of the Seminar. The revised papers were then peer reviewed and selected for publication in the monograph. The selected research papers so selected were then thoroughly edited at the Institute and the edited version of the research paper was sent to the presenting author of the research paper for her or his approval of the edited version of the research paper for publication in the monograph of the Seminar. 2 INDIA 2016: POPULATION TRANSITION The papers included in the present monograph cover a range of issues related to population transition in India and its implications for social and economic development of the country. These include future population growth in India on the basis of population projections prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations; determinants of the nutritional status of mothers and children; immunisation status of children 12-23 months of age; dynamics of population growth at the local level; health concerns of the old people and those who provide services to the old people in the family; infertility and childlessness in the context of fertility transition; concerns and issues related to disability; gynecological morbidity; use of maternity care services by married adolescent girls and changes in the female workforce at the local level. The papers included in the monograph provide a good understanding of contemporary issues related to population transition in India. The conclusions and recommendations put forward in the papers included in the present monograph may provide a sound rationale for planning and programming for contemporary population and development issues facing the country. The first paper of the monograph analyses the demographic components of the future population growth in India on the basis of the latest population projections prepared by the Population Division of the United Nations. The paper employs a decomposition methodology to analyse how much of the future population growth in the country will be the result of the changes in the level of fertility and mortality independent of age or the intrinsic growth rate and how much of the future population growth will be the result of the changes in the age structure effects on the birth rate and the death rate. The paper concludes that between 2015 and 2100, India’s population is the most likely to increase by around 375 million or by around 28.6 percent. There will be a decrease in the intrinsic growth rate of the population as the result of the decrease in fertility and mortality independent of age. This decrease in the intrinsic growth rate is the most likely to result in a decrease of around 553 million in the population of the country. Similarly, changes in the age structure effects on the birth rate and the death rate is the most likely to result in a decrease of 645 million in the population of the country. However, there will be an increase of around 1572 million in the population of the country as the result of the increase in the size of the population. The paper observes that the decrease in the age independent birth rate or the total fertility rate and the decrease in the age independent death rate or the increase in the expectation of life at birth will contribute towards a decrease in the size of the population stock of the country in the years to come. Similarly, changes in the age structure of the population, as reflected through the age structure effects on the birth rate and the death rate will also contribute to the decrease in the size of the population stock. However, these decreasing effects will be countered by the effects attributed to the increase in the size of the population. The paper also observes that the population of the country is the most likely to continue to increase till the year 2068 when it will peak at around 1754 million. The paper suggests that the future increase in the population of the country will be driven largely by the very large size effect of the population, although both fertility and mortality levels and age structure effects on the INTRODUCTION 3 birth rate and the death rate are the most likely tend to decrease instead increase the population of the country in the coming years. The second paper of the monograph focusses on the factors that influence the nutritional status of mothers and children. Using the data available through the National Family Health Survey 2005-06, the paper concludes that a multi-dimensional approach should be adopted to address the challenge of under-nutrition in children of India. The paper also confirms that an important dimension of child under-nutrition is the nutritional status of the mother. The paper concludes that if the nutritional status of the mother is poor then there is a high probability that the nutritional status of the child will also be poor. The paper recommends that efforts directed towards improving the nutritional status of children must also incorporate efforts that are directed towards improving the nutritional status of women. The mother and the child should be considered as a dyad in all planning and programming towards reducing the prevalence of under-nutrition in children below five years of age in India. The third paper of the monograph analyses the immunisation status of children aged 12-23 months in Madhya Pradesh on the basis of the data available through different rounds of the Annual Health Survey which was conducted by the Registrar General and Census Commissioner of India and covered nine states of the country including Madhya Pradesh.