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University Microfilms International 300 North Zeeb Road Ann Arbor, Michigan 48106 USA St. John's Road, Tyler's Green High Wycombe, Bucks, England HP10 8HR i I I 77-24,642 HUTCHINS, Gerald Lee, 1948- THE PUBLIC FOREIGN POLICY BEHAVIOR OF HEADS OF GOVERNMENT: THE CHARACTER OF LEADER BEHAVIOR AND ITS EFFECT ON THE BEHAVIOR OF OTHER DECISION-MAKERS. The Ohio State University, Ph.D., 1977 Political Science, international law and relations Xerox University Microfilms, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48106 Copyright by Gerald Lee Hutchins 1977 THE PUBLIC FOREIGN POLICY BEHAVIOR OF HEADS OF GOVERNMENT: THE CHARACTER OF LEADER BEHAVIOR AND ITS EFFECT ON THE BEHAVIOR OF OTHER DECISION-MAKERS DISSERTATION Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University By Gerald Lee Hutchins, A.B., M.A. ***** The Ohio State University 1977 Reading Committee: Approved By Charles F. Hermann Margaret G. Hermann dvlser Donald A . Sylvan Department of Political Science For the women in my plan Renee Vanessa; Freida Anne ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The assistance of my dissertation committee is greatfully acknowledged. The many hours spent by Charles Hermann and Margaret Hermann guiding my research provided much benefit. The efforts of Donald Sylvan were crucial to making this work intelligible beyond the bounds of the CREON project. He, more than anyone, was able to instill at least some of the skepticism this research deserves. My intellectual debt to Margaret Hermann, Barbara Salmore, and Stephen Salmore is especially keen. Their theoretical work on the psychological and regime perspectives on foreign policy greatly expanded my understanding. During this research, I was supported by the CREON project at the Mershon Center, Ohio State University. A special word of thanks is due Charles Hermann whose continuous efforts found means of finan cial support. This research was also supported by grants from the National Science Foundation (GS-3117), and the Instruction and Re­ search Computing Center at The Ohio State University. My deepest appreciation is extended to those friends who pro­ vided the emotional support necessary to carry through on this study The gentle words so cheerfully given by Carole Jacobson gave me courage to overcome the difficult moments. And my wife, Freida, gave me the security of knowing that I always had a loving family to come home to. Having been assisted by so many friends and in so many ways does not in any way reduce my responsibility for any errors of omission or commission. Lexington, Kentucky May, 1977 Gerald Lee Hutchins VITA July 27, 1948 ............... Born - Salzburg, Austria 1969......................... A.B., With High Distinction, Eastern Kentucky University, Richmond, Kentucky. 1970-1971 ................... Graduate Teaching Assistant, Depart­ ment of Political Science, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio. 1971-1973 ................... Graduate Research Associate, Depart­ ment of Political Science, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio. 1974 ....................... M.A., The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio. 1973-1976 ................... Graduate Research Associate, Mershon Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio. 1977 ....................... Visiting Lecturer, Department of Political Science, University of Kentucky, Lexington, Kentucky. PUBLICATIONS "Affect," in Linda P. Brady (ed.) How Nations Act; Dimensions of Foreign Policy Behavior. Forthcoming. FIELDS OF STUDY Major Field: International Relations Comparative Foreign Policy. Professor Charles F. Hermann International Politics. Professor Warren R. Phillips Minor Field: American Politics Public Opinion and Voting Behavior. Professor C. Richard Hofstetter v TABLE OF CONTENTS Page DEDICATION........................................ ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................... iii VITA ........................................................... V LIST OF TABLES ................................................... viii LIST OF F I G U R E S ............................................... xi Chapter ONE LEADERSHIP IN FOREIGN POLICY ....................... 1 Introduction Leadership And Leadership Studies Summary And Directions TWO EPISTEMOLOGY........................................ 35 Conceptualizations Data Sources Reliability Operationalizations Summary THREE THE CHARACTER OF LEADER FOREIGN POLICY BEHAVIOR: EMPIRICAL MAPPING .............................. 94 The Need For Controls Comparisons Of Foreign Policy Behavior Relationships Among Independent Variables Summary FOUR INFERRING EFFECTS .................................. 146 Introduction Leader Effects and Causality Why Nonleaders Follow Procedures For Testing For Effects Effectiveness Measures Analysis Technique Summary vi TABLE OP CONTENTS (Continued) Chapter Page FIVE LEADER EFFECTIVENESS . 178 Introduction A Map Of Leader Effectiveness Understanding Leader Effectiveness Summary SIX A M I C R O A N A L Y S I S ........................................ 236 The Need For A Microanalysis Conceptualizations Of Foreign Policy Behavior Data Controls Analysis Procedures Findings Conclusions SEVEN CONCLUSIONS .......................................... 256 Introduction Findings Validity Of Effectiveness Measures Avenues For Further Research BIBLIOGRAPHY 280 vii LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1.1 Factors That Alter The Foreign Policy Effec­ tiveness Of Leaders In Democratic And Authoritarian States .............................. 17 2.1 CREON Actors By G e n o t y p e .............................. 43 2.2 Persons Accepted As Heads of Government ............. 55 2.3 Adversaries of CREON National Actors ..................66 2.4 Commitment ............................................. 74 2.5 Piofepsed Orientation to Change ...................... 78 2.6 Independence of Action .................................81 2.7 A f f e c t ..................................................88 3.1 Uncontrolled Differences In Characteristics Of Leader And Nonleader Behavior ................. 100 3.2 Differences In Leader And Nonleader Behavior On Whose Problem As Adjusted For The Inter­ national Organization Category ................... 108 3.3 Leader Public Participation In Foreign Policy * B e h a v i o r ............................................ 112 3.4 Leader and Nonleader Behavior In Setting C o n t e x t s ..................... 116 3.5 Leader Participation in International Organi­ zations ............................................ 117 3.6 Face To Face Meetings In And Outside Of Inter­ national Organizations ............................ 119 3.7 Leader and Nonleader Behavior In Timing C o n t e x t s ............................................ 120 viii LIST OF TABLES (Continued) Table Page 3.8 Leader and Nonleader Behavior Toward Recipients . 123 3.9 Leaders Who Play An Active Role In Adversary Relationships .................................... 125 3.10 The Extent Of Leader And Nonleader Missing Data On Situational Variables......................126 3.11 The Extent Of Leader And Nonleader Missing Data On Situational Variables Controlling For The Presence Of A Behavioral Stimulus .... 130 3.12 Leader And Nonleader Behavior In Undesirable Situations ...................................... 131 3.13 Leader And Nonleader Behavior In Types Of Situations ...................................... 131 3.14 Relationships Among Independent Variables: Gamma Coefficients .............................. 134 3.15 Relationships Between The Classical Approach Variable And The Regime Approach Variables . 13 5 3.16 Relationship Between Openness And Training