The Granite State Poll February 28, 2020 SUNUNU REMAINS POPULAR; HOLDS LEADS OVER DEMOCRATIC CHALLENGERS FOR GOVERNOR By: Sean P. McKinley, M.A. [email protected] Zachary S. Azem, M.A. 603-862-2226 Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. cola.unh.edu/unh-survey-center DURHAM, NH – A majority of New Hampshire residents approve of Chris Sununu's performance as Governor but disapproval is rising. Sununu holds clear leads over prospec ve Democra c challengers State Senate Majority Leader Dan Feltes and Execu ve Councilor Andru Volinsky, who are not at all well known in the state. Nearly three-quarters of residents think the state is headed in the right direc on and a plurality con nue to believe that the drug crisis is the most important problem facing the state. These findings are based on the latest Granite State Poll*, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Six hundred eleven (611) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed in English by landline and cellular telephone between February 19 and February 25, 2020. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.0 percent. Included in the sample were 576 likely general elec on voters (MSE +/- 4.1%). Gubernatorial Approval With nine months to go before the November elec on, a majority of Granite Staters con nue to approve of New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu's performance, but disapproval is at its highest point in Sununu's governorship. Fi y-seven percent of New Hampshire residents approve of Sununu's performance as Governor, 27% disapprove, and 16% neither approve nor disapprove or don't know. The percentage of those who approve of Sununu's job performance is largely unchanged since April 2019. Gubernatorial Approval - Chris Sununu 100% Strongly Approve Approve Somewhat 90% 25% Lean Approve 28% 28% 27% Neither/DK 80% Lean Disapprove Disapprove Somewhat 70% Strongly Disapprove 60% 66% 29% 27% 62% 61% 61% 61% 28% 27% 60% 59% 60% 59% 57% 57% 57% 50% 40% 42% 16% 15% 21% 17% 30% 25% 27% 20% 23% 5% 21%22% 22% 10% 9% 17%17% 13% 17% 16% 15% 16% 8% 10% 13% 12% 13% 8% 7% 0% Feb 2017 Aug 2017 Feb 2018 Aug 2018 Feb 2019 Aug 2019 Feb 2020 Apr Aug Oct Feb 2019 2019 2019 2020 Approve Disapprove * We ask that this copyrighted informa on be referred to as the Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Eighty-four percent of New Hampshire Republicans approve of the job Sununu is doing while 60% of Independents and 31% of Democrats approve. Those who voted for Donald Trump in 2016, conserva ve radio listeners, self-described conserva ves, and those who a end religious services once or twice a week or more o en are most likely to approve of Sununu's performance. Self-described liberals, those who voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, those who never a end religious services, NHPR listeners, those who have completed postgraduate work, and those aged 18 to 34 are least likely to approve of Sununu's performance. Job Approval - Governor Chris Sununu - By Party Iden fica on 100% 84% 80% 60% 60% 58% 57% 42% 40% 39% 31% 28% 20% 0% Feb 2017 May 2017 Aug 2017 Nov 2017 Feb 2018 May 2018 Aug 2018 Nov 2018 Feb 2019 May 2019 Aug 2019 Nov 2019 Feb 2020 OVERALL Democrat Independent Republican On a scale where "strongly approve" equals 7 and "strongly disapprove" equals 1, Sununu's average approval score (4.7) has declined over the past four quarters from a high of 5.2 in the ninth quarter of his governorship. Sununu's approval score is slightly higher than that of his predecessor Maggie Hassan (4.5) at the same point in her governorship, but lower than former Governor John Lynch's level of support at the same point in his governorship (5.5). Gubernatorial Average Approval Score by Quarters Into Governorship (7=Strongly Approve, 1= Strongly Disapprove) 7 6 5.5 5.4 5 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.6 4.5 4.3 4 4.2 4.0 3 2 1 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 Quarters into Governorship Jeanne Shaheen Craig Benson John Lynch Maggie Hassan Chris Sununu Favorability Ra ngs - Governor Chris Sununu Just over half of New Hampshire residents (55%) have a favorable opinion of Sununu, 22% have an unfavorable opinion of him, 13% are neutral, and 10% don't know or are unsure. Sununu's personal favorability is largely unchanged over the most of his governorship. Those who voted for Donald Trump in 2016, self-described conserva ves, conserva ve radio listeners, those who a end religious services once or twice a month or more o en, those aged 65 and older, those who are re red or not working, and WMUR viewers are most likely to have a favorable opinion of Sununu. Self-described liberals, those who did not vote in 2016 or voted for Hillary Clinton, those aged 18 to 34, NHPR listeners, those who never a end religious services, and those who have never been married are least likely to have a favorable opinion of Sununu. Favorability - Chris Sununu 100% 80% 59% 60% 56% 56% 56% 56% 52% 55% 56% 53% 52% 37% 40% 42% 28% 28% 28% 26% 25% 32% 20% 21% 27% 17% 19% 22% 20% 22% 15% 19% 19% 17% 16% 17% 14% 15% 14% 0% Apr 2015 Dec 2015 Aug 2016 Apr 2017 Dec 2017 Aug 2018 Apr 2019 Dec 2019 Net Favorability Ra ng - Governor Chris Sununu Sununu's net favorability ra ng, the percentage of people who have a favorable opinion minus the percentage who have an unfavorable opinion, is +33%, largely unchanged since August 2019 (+34%). Sununu's net favorability ra ng among Republicans (+73%) has remained largely consistent over the course of his governorship while his net favorability among Independents (+50%) has increased since August 2019 (+37%). Sununu's favorability among Democrats (-13%) remains lower than earlier in his governorship. Net Favorability Ra ng - Chris Sununu Net Favorability = (% Favorable - % Unfavorable) 100% 73% 50% 50% 32% 33% 24% 14% 0% -8% -13% -50% -100% Apr 2015 Dec 2015 Aug 2016 Apr 2017 Dec 2017 Aug 2018 Apr 2019 Dec 2019 OVERALL Democrat Independent Republican Two prospec ve Democra c challengers have declared their inten on to challenge Sununu for the Governor's office in November: State Senate Majority Leader Dan Feltes and Execu ve Councilor Andru Volinsky. However, both candidates are not at all well known in the state. Ten percent of Granite Staters have a favorable opinion of Volinsky, 11% are neutral, 7% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 72% don't know or are unsure. Eleven percent have a favorable opinion of Feltes, 11% are neutral, 6% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 71% don't know or are unsure. Among self-described Democrats, 16% have a favorable opinion of Volinsky, 12% are neutral, 7% have an unfavorable opinion, and 65% don't know or are unsure. Among this group, 15% have a favorable opinion of Feltes, 13% are neutral, 6% have an unfavorable opinion, and 65% don't know or are unsure. Favorability - Democra c Gubernatorial Candidates Andru Volinsky 10% 11% 7% 72% Dan Feltes 11% 11% 6% 71% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don't Know/Not Sure Governor Sununu holds significant leads over both prospec ve Democra c challengers. In a hypothe cal general elec on contest between Volinsky and Sununu, 54% of Granite State likely voters support Sununu, 29% support Volinsky, 3% would vote for another candidate, and 13% don't know or are undecided. In a contest between Sununu and Feltes, 56% support Sununu, 27% support Feltes, 4% would vote for someone else, and 14% don't know or are unsure. In February 2018, Sununu held slightly smaller leads over prospec ve Democra c challengers Steve Marchand, Mark Connolly, and Colin van Ostern by fourteen, twelve, and ten percentage points respec vely. Sununu vs. Poten al Democra c Opponents 56% 54% 50% 40% 30% 29% 27% 20% 13% 14% 10% 3% 4% 0% Chris Sununu Andru Volinsky Other DK/Undecided Chris Sununu Dan Feltes Other DK/Undecided NH Heading in Right Direc on or On Wrong Track Granite Staters con nue to believe the state is headed in the right direc on. Seventy-three percent of Granite Staters say things in NH are generally going in the right direc on, while 17% say things are seriously off on the wrong track and 10% don't know or are unsure. NH Right Track – Wrong Track 100% 80% 73% 60% 62% 40% 29% 20% 17% 0% Craig Benson John Lynch Maggie Hassan Chris Sununu 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Right Direction Wrong Track Op mism about the state's future is bipar san: 82% of Independents, 81% of Republicans, and 61% of Democrats feel the state is headed in the right direc on. Op mism among Independents is at its highest ever point and this is the first me that Independents are more op mis c about the state's direc on than Republicans and Democrats. NH Right Track - By Party ID 100% 82% 81% 80% 76% 73% 62% 60% 61% 58% 48% 40% 20% 0% Craig Benson John Lynch Maggie Hassan Chris Sununu 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Democrat Independent Republican OVERALL Most Important Problem Facing New Hampshire The drug crisis remains the most important problem facing the state, but is well below the level of concern reported in 2017 and 2018.