STAR 2016 Managing a volcanic eruption in a small island country: Lessons from the 2014-15 eruption of Hunga Tonga – Hunga Ha'apai in the Kingdom of Tonga Steven Sherburn 1, Taaniela Kula 2, Leveni Aho 3, Moleni Tu'uholoaki 4, Kyle Lee 5 1GNS Science, New Zealand 2Ministry of Lands & Natural Resources, Tonga 3National Emergency Management Office, Tonga 4Metoffice, Tonga 5Metservice, New Zealand GNS Science Acknowledgements Nico Fournier, Head of Department, Volcanology GNS Science Funding GNS Science assistance to Tonga New Zealand High Commission, Nuku'alofa GNS Science Hunga Tonga – Hunga Ha'apai The Eruption 20 December 2014 – 19 January 2015 • ~65 km NW Nuku'alofa • Previous eruption 2009 HT 17 January 2015 HH 17 January 2015 Airbus Defence & Space Pleiades satellite @CultureVolcan GNS Science Success ☺: Cooperation Between Responding Agencies • GSU (Geological Sciences Unit, Ministry Land & Natural Resources) • NEMO (National Emergency Management Organisation) • Tonga MetOffice • Tonga Airports Ltd • NZ Metservice (Wellington VAAC) • Airlines – Real Tonga – Air New Zealand, Fiji Airways, Virgin Australia GNS Science Success ☺: Eruption Notification, Assessment GSU, MLNR • Observations • Historical data • Other data • Assessment of likely impacts • Expect limited direct impact on local people ☺ GNS Science Success ☺: Reporting of Eruptions But ….. reports not always accurate GNS Science Shortcomings ☻: Under-estimated Potential Impact of Volcanic Ash on Airline Flights • Trade winds likely to blow any ash west, away from Tonga • And did in early stages • 2009 Hunga Ha'apai eruption had a relatively limited impact on airline industry Focus ► volcanic ash impact GNS Science Initial Impact – Nil Sulphur dioxide plume from satellite data wind GNS Science Later Impact – Flight Cancellations Due to Ash For Three Days GNS Science The Reality – Little Ash in the Plume Flight Cancellations Probably Not Required January 15, ~ 1pm Pilot report Ash plume to more 30,000 feet ☻ Clearly mostly steam, certainly at aircraft altitude Need better ash observations Nuku'alofa seafront GNS Science How to Get Better Plume Observations 1)Correctly estimate if the plume is ash rich or ash poor 2)Better estimation of maximum plume height from Tongatapu Feed into to ash plume modelling by Wellington VAAC (NZ Metservice) GNS Science Lesson: Basic Training Will Pay Dividends Basic Volcano Observation Skills GNS Science Lesson: Specific Training Will Pay Dividends Plume Ash Content – Pilot's Understanding Peter Williams, Real Tonga 2015 January 7 Beware shadow effects GNS Science Lesson: Simple Solutions May be Best Estimating the Height of a Volcanic Plume How high is the plume? Solution: Plumometer GNS Science Lesson: Indirect Data Sources Can Help Satellite Imagery Can Confirm Eruptions Himawari-8 http://www.data.jma.go.jp/mscweb/data/himawari/ GNS Science Lesson: Support is Support Let the Locals Deal with the Media Not completely successful ☻ But tried very hard …. Media often want to speak with “overseas experts” GNS Science Summary • Excellent initial response, with limited resources ☺ • Under-estimated ash impact on aviation ☻ • Key lessons • Training to address any issues • Simple solutions may be best • Indirect data sources can help - satellite • Supporters should only support GNS Science Mālō GNS Science.