STAR 2016 Managing a volcanic eruption in a small country: Lessons from the 2014-15 eruption of Hunga – Hunga Ha'apai in the Kingdom of Tonga

Steven Sherburn 1, Taaniela Kula 2, Leveni Aho 3, Moleni Tu'uholoaki 4, Kyle Lee 5 1GNS Science, 2Ministry of Lands & Natural Resources, Tonga 3National Emergency Management Office, Tonga 4Metoffice, Tonga 5Metservice, New Zealand GNS Science Acknowledgements

Nico Fournier, Head of Department, Volcanology GNS Science

Funding GNS Science assistance to Tonga

New Zealand High Commission, Nuku'alofa

GNS Science Hunga Tonga – Hunga Ha'apai The Eruption 20 December 2014 – 19 January 2015

• ~65 km NW Nuku'alofa • Previous eruption 2009

HT 17 January 2015 HH

17 January 2015

Airbus Defence & Space Pleiades satellite @CultureVolcan GNS Science Success ☺: Cooperation Between Responding Agencies

• GSU (Geological Sciences Unit, Ministry Land & Natural Resources) • NEMO (National Emergency Management Organisation) • Tonga MetOffice • Tonga Airports Ltd • NZ Metservice (Wellington VAAC) • Airlines – Real Tonga – Air New Zealand, Airways, Virgin Australia

GNS Science Success ☺: Eruption Notification, Assessment GSU, MLNR

• Observations • Historical data • Other data • Assessment of likely impacts

• Expect limited direct impact on local people ☺

GNS Science Success ☺: Reporting of Eruptions

But ….. reports not always accurate

GNS Science Shortcomings ☻: Under-estimated Potential Impact of Volcanic Ash on Airline Flights

• Trade winds likely to blow any ash west, away from Tonga • And did in early stages • 2009 Hunga Ha'apai eruption had a relatively limited impact on airline industry

Focus ► volcanic ash impact

GNS Science Initial Impact – Nil

Sulphur dioxide plume from satellite data wind

GNS Science Later Impact – Flight Cancellations Due to Ash For Three Days

GNS Science The Reality – Little Ash in the Plume Flight Cancellations Probably Not Required

January 15, ~ 1pm

Pilot report Ash plume to more 30,000 feet ☻

Clearly mostly steam, certainly at aircraft altitude

Need better ash observations

Nuku'alofa seafront

GNS Science How to Get Better Plume Observations

1)Correctly estimate if the plume is ash rich or ash poor 2)Better estimation of maximum plume height from Tongatapu

Feed into to ash plume modelling by Wellington VAAC (NZ Metservice)

GNS Science Lesson: Basic Training Will Pay Dividends Basic Observation Skills

GNS Science Lesson: Specific Training Will Pay Dividends Plume Ash Content – Pilot's Understanding

Peter Williams, Real Tonga 2015 January 7

Beware shadow effects

GNS Science Lesson: Simple Solutions May be Best Estimating the Height of a Volcanic Plume

How high is the plume?

Solution: Plumometer

GNS Science Lesson: Indirect Data Sources Can Help Satellite Imagery Can Confirm Eruptions

Himawari-8 http://www.data.jma.go.jp/mscweb/data/himawari/

GNS Science Lesson: Support is Support Let the Locals Deal with the Media

Not completely successful ☻ But tried very hard ….

Media often want to speak with “overseas experts”

GNS Science Summary

• Excellent initial response, with limited resources ☺ • Under-estimated ash impact on aviation ☻ • Key lessons • Training to address any issues • Simple solutions may be best • Indirect data sources can help - satellite • Supporters should only support

GNS Science Mālō

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