STAR 2016 Managing a volcanic eruption in a small island country: Lessons from the 2014-15 eruption of Hunga Tonga – Hunga Ha'apai in the Kingdom of Tonga
Steven Sherburn 1, Taaniela Kula 2, Leveni Aho 3, Moleni Tu'uholoaki 4, Kyle Lee 5 1GNS Science, New Zealand 2Ministry of Lands & Natural Resources, Tonga 3National Emergency Management Office, Tonga 4Metoffice, Tonga 5Metservice, New Zealand GNS Science Acknowledgements
Nico Fournier, Head of Department, Volcanology GNS Science
Funding GNS Science assistance to Tonga
New Zealand High Commission, Nuku'alofa
GNS Science Hunga Tonga – Hunga Ha'apai The Eruption 20 December 2014 – 19 January 2015
• ~65 km NW Nuku'alofa • Previous eruption 2009
HT 17 January 2015 HH
17 January 2015
Airbus Defence & Space Pleiades satellite @CultureVolcan GNS Science Success ☺: Cooperation Between Responding Agencies
• GSU (Geological Sciences Unit, Ministry Land & Natural Resources) • NEMO (National Emergency Management Organisation) • Tonga MetOffice • Tonga Airports Ltd • NZ Metservice (Wellington VAAC) • Airlines – Real Tonga – Air New Zealand, Fiji Airways, Virgin Australia
GNS Science Success ☺: Eruption Notification, Assessment GSU, MLNR
• Observations • Historical data • Other data • Assessment of likely impacts
• Expect limited direct impact on local people ☺
GNS Science Success ☺: Reporting of Eruptions
But ….. reports not always accurate
GNS Science Shortcomings ☻: Under-estimated Potential Impact of Volcanic Ash on Airline Flights
• Trade winds likely to blow any ash west, away from Tonga • And did in early stages • 2009 Hunga Ha'apai eruption had a relatively limited impact on airline industry
Focus ► volcanic ash impact
GNS Science Initial Impact – Nil
Sulphur dioxide plume from satellite data wind
GNS Science Later Impact – Flight Cancellations Due to Ash For Three Days
GNS Science The Reality – Little Ash in the Plume Flight Cancellations Probably Not Required
January 15, ~ 1pm
Pilot report Ash plume to more 30,000 feet ☻
Clearly mostly steam, certainly at aircraft altitude
Need better ash observations
Nuku'alofa seafront
GNS Science How to Get Better Plume Observations
1)Correctly estimate if the plume is ash rich or ash poor 2)Better estimation of maximum plume height from Tongatapu
Feed into to ash plume modelling by Wellington VAAC (NZ Metservice)
GNS Science Lesson: Basic Training Will Pay Dividends Basic Volcano Observation Skills
GNS Science Lesson: Specific Training Will Pay Dividends Plume Ash Content – Pilot's Understanding
Peter Williams, Real Tonga 2015 January 7
Beware shadow effects
GNS Science Lesson: Simple Solutions May be Best Estimating the Height of a Volcanic Plume
How high is the plume?
Solution: Plumometer
GNS Science Lesson: Indirect Data Sources Can Help Satellite Imagery Can Confirm Eruptions
Himawari-8 http://www.data.jma.go.jp/mscweb/data/himawari/
GNS Science Lesson: Support is Support Let the Locals Deal with the Media
Not completely successful ☻ But tried very hard ….
Media often want to speak with “overseas experts”
GNS Science Summary
• Excellent initial response, with limited resources ☺ • Under-estimated ash impact on aviation ☻ • Key lessons • Training to address any issues • Simple solutions may be best • Indirect data sources can help - satellite • Supporters should only support
GNS Science Mālō
GNS Science