Report No. 88880-ML Public Disclosure Authorized Mali Geography of Poverty in Mali April 23, 2015 Public Disclosure Authorized PREM 4 Africa Region Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Document of the World Bank CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate as of March, 2015) Currency unit = CFA franc (CFAF) US$1.00 = CFAF 610 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ACLED Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset AFD African Development Bank AFISMA Afican-led International Support Mission to Mali AICD Africa Infrastruture Country Diagnostic AQIM Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb CID Center for International Development CPI Consumer Price Inflation CSLP Cadre Stratégique de Lutte Contre la Pauvreté (Poverty Reduction Strategy) DNSI Discrimination and National Security Initiative ELIM Enquête Intégrée auprès des Ménages EMEP Enquête Malienne sur l’Evaluation de la Pauvreté EMOP Enquête Modulaire et Permanente auprès des Ménages F CFA Franc de la Communauté Financière Africaine FEWSNET Famine Early Warning Systems Network GDP Gross Domestic Product GIS Geographic Information System IDP Internal Development Program IED Improvised Explosive Devises IMF International Monetary Fund INSTAT Institut National de la Statistique MICS Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey MICS Multiple Indicators Cluster Survey MINUSMA United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali NOREF Norwegian Peacebuilding Resource Centre PAPC Post-conflict Assistance Project PIB Gross Domestic Product RGPH Recensement Général de la Population et de l’Habitat UEMOA West African States Monetary Union UN United Nations USD US dollar WAEMU West African Economic and Monetary Union WDI World Development Indicators Regional Vice President: Makhtar Diop Sector Director: Ana Revenga Country Director: Paul Noumba Um Sector Manager: Pablo Fajnzylber Task Team Leader: Johannes Hoogeveen i Table of Contents Aknowledgements .................................................................................................................... v Executive Summary ................................................................................................................ vi Introduction ........................................................................................................ 1 Mali by Agglomeration Type ............................................................................ 5 A. Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 5 B. Classifying Mali by population density and size of the locality ......................................................... 6 C. Population Characteristics .................................................................................................................. 9 D. Spatial distribution of economic activities ........................................................................................ 14 E. Urban expansion and income growth................................................................................................ 19 F. Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................ 21 Mali by Livelihood Zone ................................................................................. 23 A. Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 23 B. Livelihood zones in Mali .................................................................................................................. 23 C. Income and wealth ............................................................................................................................ 26 D. Patterns of consumption .................................................................................................................... 32 E. Access to services ............................................................................................................................. 34 F. Characteristics of poor households across livelihood zones ............................................................. 37 G. Discussion ......................................................................................................................................... 39 Explaining Well-being Using a Spatial Perspective ...................................... 42 A. Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 42 B. Consumption ..................................................................................................................................... 42 C. New poverty lines for this report ...................................................................................................... 46 D. Poverty and poverty trends ............................................................................................................... 48 E. Caution When Interpreting poverty .................................................................................................. 59 F. Consumption and poverty and since 2010 ........................................................................................ 62 G. Ownership of assets .......................................................................................................................... 64 H. Other correlates of welfare ................................................................................................................ 65 I. Consumption regression.................................................................................................................... 69 J. Discussion ......................................................................................................................................... 73 Spatial Challenges to Service Delivery: Trading off Equity, Efficiency and Quality 76 A. Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 76 B. Unit costs and the delivery of services.............................................................................................. 76 C. Education: access versus quality ....................................................................................................... 78 D. Electricity .......................................................................................................................................... 89 E. Access to markets and roads ............................................................................................................. 91 F. Discussion ......................................................................................................................................... 97 Poverty Reduction and Growth in the Face of Spatial Challenges ........... 100 A. Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 100 B. Poverty reduction requires accelerated growth ............................................................................... 100 C. Growth between 2000 and 2013 ..................................................................................................... 103 D. Spatially conscious strategies for accelerating growth ................................................................... 107 ii Annex Annex 1: Services trade policies for Member States of WAEMU ........................................................... 112 List of Tables Table 2.1: City size and city rank (1987, 1998 and 2009) ............................................................................ 9 Table 2.2: Household characteristics by agglomeration type ..................................................................... 10 Table 2.3: Sorting of internal migrants (ages 15-64) by education level (2009) ........................................ 12 Table 2.4: Access to basic utilities (2009) .................................................................................................. 13 Table 2.5: Decomposition of the change in poverty between 2001 and 2010 ............................................ 20 Table 3.1: Wealth Characteristics According to Livelihood Zone ............................................................. 30 Table 3.2: Market access by livelihood zone .............................................................................................. 34 Table 3.3: Population density and access to basic utilities by livelihood zone (2009) ............................... 36 Table 4.1: Poverty incidence by livelihood zone ........................................................................................ 51 Table 4.2: Determinants of per capita consumption ................................................................................... 72 Table 5.1: Net enrollment in primary and secondary schools ..................................................................... 78 Table 5.2: Summary Data for Primary and Secondary Schools .................................................................. 86 Table 5.3: Percent of population living within a certain distance from a school ........................................ 88 Table 5.4: Road type and state of maintenance........................................................................................... 96 Table 7.1: Population estimates for