Draft Economic Analysis of Critical Habitat Designation for Three Populations of Bull Trout Coastal-Puget Sound Jarbidge River Saint Mary-Belly River Prepared for: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Division of Economics Alexandria, Virginia Prepared by: Northwest Economic Associates A Division of ENTRIX, Inc. Vancouver, Washington April 22, 2005 Draft Economic Analysis of Critical Habitat Designation for Three Populations of Bull Trout Coastal-Puget Sound Jarbidge River Saint Mary-Belly River Prepared for: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Division of Economics 4401 N. Fairfax Drive Alexandria, VA 22203 Prepared by: Northwest Economic Associates 12009 N.E. 99th Street, Suite 1410 Vancouver, WA 98682-2497 Send comments on the economic analysis to: John Young Bull Trout Coordinator U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Branch of Endangered Species 911 N.E. 11th Avenue Portland, OR 97232 April 22, 2005 TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary ES-1 1.0 Introduction and Background 1 1.1 Approach to Estimating Economic Effects ................................................................................. 1 1.1.1 Efficiency Effects ............................................................................................................ 2 1.1.2 Distributional Effects and Regional Economic Impacts.................................................. 3 1.1.2.1 Impacts on Small Entities and Energy Supply, Distribution, and Use.............. 4 1.1.2.2 Regional Economic Impacts.............................................................................. 4 1.2 Scope of the Analysis.................................................................................................................. 5 1.2.1 Sections of the Act Relevant to Economic Analysis ....................................................... 7 1.2.2 Other Relevant Protection Efforts ................................................................................... 9 1.2.3 Additional Analytic Considerations ................................................................................ 9 1.2.4 Benefits............................................................................................................................ 9 1.2.4.1 The Potential for Amenity Values................................................................... 10 1.2.5 Analytic Time Frame..................................................................................................... 11 1.3 Information Sources .................................................................................................................. 11 1.4 Background of the Bull Trout Listing ....................................................................................... 12 1.5 Background of the Bull Trout Critical Habitat Designation ..................................................... 13 1.6 Description of the Species and Habitat ..................................................................................... 14 1.7 Proposed Critical Habitat Designations..................................................................................... 18 1.7.1 Coastal-Puget Sound (Units 27 and 28) ........................................................................ 18 1.7.2 Jarbidge River (Unit 26)................................................................................................ 19 1.7.3 Saint Mary–Belly River (Unit 29)................................................................................. 19 1.7.4 A Note About Critical Habitat and Effects.................................................................... 19 1.8 Organization of the Report........................................................................................................ 20 1.8.1 Categories of Costs Delineated...................................................................................... 20 2.0 Framework for Economic Analysis 22 2.1 Geographic Units of Designation and Economic Analysis ....................................................... 22 2.2 Retrospective and Prospective Effects ...................................................................................... 23 2.2.1 Nearshore Marine Habitat HUCs................................................................................... 24 2.3 General Categories of Economic Effects .................................................................................. 24 2.3.1 Federal ........................................................................................................................... 24 2.3.1.1 Section 7 Consultations, Technical Assistance, and Project Modifications....... 25 Draft Economic Analysis Northwest Economic Associates • i 2.3.2 Private............................................................................................................................ 25 2.3.2.1 Framework for Residential and Commercial Development Effects................ 25 2.3.2.2 Framework for Effects on Forest Management Practices ............................... 29 2.3.2.3 Framework for Effects on Agriculture ............................................................ 29 2.3.2.4 Framework for Effects on Livestock Grazing................................................. 30 2.3.2.5 Framework for Effects on Mining................................................................... 30 2.3.2.6 Framework for Effects on Transportation Networks....................................... 31 2.3.2.7 Framework for Effects on Dredging, Utilities, and Instream Activities ......... 31 2.3.3 Secondary and Regional Impacts................................................................................... 31 2.3.4 Effects on Small Entities ............................................................................................... 32 2.3.5 Effects on Energy Supply.............................................................................................. 33 2.4 Project Life, Period of Analysis, and Discount Rate................................................................. 33 2.5 Caveats and Assumptions.......................................................................................................... 33 2.5.1 Coastal-Puget Sound: Distribution of Economic Effects among Listed Species .......... 35 2.6 Economic Analysis of Bull Trout I: A Comparison of Approaches.......................................... 36 3.0 Coastal-Puget Sound Population of Bull Trout 39 3.1 Socioeconomic Profile of the Critical Habitat Area.................................................................. 39 3.1.1 Location and Geography of the Coastal-Puget Sound Region ...................................... 39 3.1.2 Population Characteristics and Demographics .............................................................. 40 3.1.3 Employment................................................................................................................... 41 3.1.4 Tribes in the Coastal-Puget Sound Region.................................................................... 49 3.1.4.1 Reservation Descriptions and Socioeconomic Characteristics........................ 51 3.2 Regulatory Environment ........................................................................................................... 56 3.2.1 Other Species Listed under the Act ............................................................................... 56 3.2.1.1 Implications for Estimating Costs Attributable to the Bull Trout ................... 58 3.2.2 Federal and State Statutes and Regulations................................................................... 59 3.2.2.1 Northwest Forest Plan ..................................................................................... 59 3.2.2.2 Habitat Conservation Plans ............................................................................. 60 3.2.2.3 Clean Water Act.............................................................................................. 65 3.2.2.4 Growth Management Act ................................................................................ 66 3.2.3 Elements of the Recovery Plan...................................................................................... 74 3.3 Effects on Residential and Commercial Development.............................................................. 76 3.3.1 Data and Assumptions................................................................................................... 76 3.3.1.1 Development Projection.................................................................................. 76 Draft Economic Analysis Northwest Economic Associates • ii 3.3.1.2 Attributing Development Costs to Stormwater Management and the Act...... 77 3.3.2 Costs of Project Modifications and Improvements........................................................ 81 3.3.3 An Alternate Approach: Stormwater Permits and Development................................... 82 3.4 Effects on Hydroelectric Projects and Other Water Storage Dams........................................... 83 3.4.1 Effects on Hydroelectric Projects .................................................................................. 85 3.4.1.1 Hydroelectric Projects in the Coastal-Puget Sound Region............................ 85 3.4.2 Assumptions and Uncertainties ..................................................................................... 98 3.4.3 Effects on Non-Hydroelectric Projects.......................................................................... 99 3.4.3.1 Non-Hydroelectric Projects in the Coastal-Puget Sound Region.................. 100 3.4.4 Assumptions and Uncertainties