COMING FULL CIRCLE WITH BOYD’S OODA LOOP IDEAS: AN ANALYSIS OF INNOVATION DIFFUSION AND EVOLUTION THESIS William S. Angerman, Captain, USAF AFIT/GIR/ENV/04M-01 DEPARTMENT OF THE AIR FORCE AIR UNIVERSITY AIR FORCE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE; DISTRIBUTION UNLIMITED The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or the United States Government. AFIT/GIR/ENV/04M-01 COMING FULL CIRCLE WITH BOYD’S OODA LOOP IDEAS: AN ANALYSIS OF INNOVATION DIFFUSION AND EVOLUTION THESIS Presented to the Faculty Department of Systems and Engineering Management Graduate School of Engineering and Management Air Force Institute of Technology Air University Air Education and Training Command In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Information Systems Management William S. Angerman, BS Captain, USAF March 2004 APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE; DISTRIBUTION UNLIMITED. AFIT/GIR/ENV/04M-01 Abstract The Observe-Orient-Decide-Act (OODA) Loop ideas of Air Force Colonel John Boyd have impacted the Department of Defense (DoD), influenced military thought, paved the way for operational change, and helped to shape fighting doctrines. A wide variety of OODA Loop ideas and interpretations exist in the literature, but are unorganized and have not undergone holistic study to determine how Boyd’s ideas have spread or changed over time. As such, this research analyzed a quarter century (1976- 2003) sample of the OODA Loop literature to examine the diffusion and evolution of OODA Loop ideas since Boyd’s original conceptualizations. This research used qualitative data analysis to examine OODA Loop ideas in light of innovation diffusion theory. Ideas from Boyd’s original OODA Loop theories were compared and contrasted with subsequent literature instances to assess diffusion and evolution of OODA Loop ideas in the DoD. This research concluded with a proposed conceptual framework for collectively considering OODA Loop ideas. iv Acknowledgements This research is the product of the support and encouragement of a great number of people (or more accurately, a number of great people). My foremost thanks go to my thesis advisor, Lt Col Summer Bartczak. Her encouragement, vision, and sheer persistence helped me work through tough times of adversity and confusion. She allowed me great freedom of thought while still keeping me on track. Other members of my thesis committee, Dr. Alan Heminger and Lt Col Stephen Swartz, also steered my research labors and helped to illuminate dark places along my winding research journey. In addition, I express my gratitude to my fellow AFIT classmates. I have been enriched by your friendship, lively discussion, and support during this master’s experience. Thank you for making even the hardest times fun. OODA on! Most importantly, I lift my thanks up to God who has sustained and blessed me and express my heartfelt appreciation and affection to my wonderful wife for her continual patience, understanding, and support. W. Scott Angerman v Table of Contents Page Abstract.............................................................................................................................. iv Acknowledgements............................................................................................................. v List of Figures.................................................................................................................... xi List of Tables ...................................................................................................................xiii I. Introduction................................................................................................................1 Background..............................................................................................................1 OODA Loop Introduction..................................................................................1 Origin and Diffusion of the OODA Loop..........................................................3 Research Purpose.....................................................................................................5 Specific Problem Statement.....................................................................................6 Scope........................................................................................................................7 Research Approach and Overview ..........................................................................7 Summary..................................................................................................................7 II. Literature Review ...................................................................................................... 9 Overview..................................................................................................................9 Part I: Research Terminology..................................................................................9 Part II: Diffusion of Innovation Theory.................................................................10 Diffusion of Innovation. ..................................................................................10 Innovation-Decision Process Theory...............................................................12 Re-invention. ...................................................................................................13 Change Agents.................................................................................................13 vi Adoption of Innovation....................................................................................14 Part III: Chronological Review of Boyd’s Original OODA Loop Ideas...............16 Introduction to Boyd’s Work...........................................................................16 Chronology of Boyd’s OODA Loop Work. ....................................................17 Destruction and Creation (Boyd, 1976) ....................................................17 New Conception for Air-to-Air Combat (Boyd, 1976)...............................20 Patterns of Conflict (Boyd, 1986)..............................................................21 Organic Design of Command and Control (Boyd, 1987)..........................26 The Strategic Game of ? and ? (Boyd, 1987) ............................................31 A Discourse on Winning and Losing (Boyd, 1992) ...................................35 The Essence of Winning & Losing (Boyd, 1996).......................................39 Summary................................................................................................................42 III. Methodology .......................................................................................................... 43 General...................................................................................................................43 Research Design: Qualitative Data Analysis.........................................................43 Data Collection. ...............................................................................................45 Developing the Focus of Inquiry ...............................................................45 Defining “OODA Literature” for Analysis ...............................................47 OODA Literature Collection Methods.......................................................48 Data Reduction. ...............................................................................................48 Defining Researcher Qualitative Assessments: Coding and Categorization ...................................................................................................................49 Data Display. ...................................................................................................50 vii Conclusion Drawing and Verification.............................................................50 Presentation of Analysis ........................................................................................51 Researcher Framework Construction ....................................................................52 Provisions for Research Validity and Reliability ..................................................53 Summary................................................................................................................54 IV. Results and Analysis.............................................................................................. 55 Introduction............................................................................................................55 Part I: Basic Ideas that Underpin Boyd’s OODA Loop ........................................55 “Boyd” OODA Loop Idea Themes..................................................................62 Part II: Diffusion of OODA Loop Ideas in the Literature .....................................64 “Emergent” OODA Loop Idea Themes...........................................................65 Results of Idea Theme Diffusion.....................................................................66 Observed OODA Loop Idea Diffusion Trends................................................69 OODA Loop Idea Trend: Wide Variety/Distribution of OODA Loop Ideas ...................................................................................................................69 Observed Diffusion Trends in the Literature...................................................69