This SocArXiv preprint has been submitted for peer-review Perception towards forestation as a strategy to mitigate climate change in Somalia Osman M. Jama 1,2, Abdishakur W. Diriye 1,2, Abdulhakim M. Abdi 3 1 School of Public Affairs, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, People’s Republic of China- 2 Department of Public Administration, Faculty of Economics and Management Science, Mogadishu University, Mogadishu, Somalia. 3 Centre for Environmental and Climate Research, Lund University, Lund, Sweden. Abstract Climate change mitigation strategies need both source reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and a significant enhancement of the land sink of carbon dioxide (CO2) through photosynthesis. In recent years, there has been growing attention to forests as an effective way to mitigate climate change as they capture and store large quantities of CO2 as phytomass and in the soil. Numerous forestation programs have been rolled out internationally and governments, mostly in the developing world, have been fostering tree planting initiatives. However, there is a paucity of studies that assess local perceptions to these initiatives and there are virtually no studies that do so in countries recovering from long-term conflict such as Somalia. Here, we analyze the factors that motivate or hinder the perception of young people in Somalia about forestation as a means to mitigate climate change. This demographic was targeted because 75% of the population of Somalia is between the ages of 18 and 35. Our results show that biocentric value orientation, which emphasizes environmental preservation and ecosystem maintenance, has significant positive influence on attitudes towards forestation whereas anthropocentric value orientation, which treats forests as an instrumental value to humans, did not show a significant influence. A surprising discovery was that biocentric value orientation also had a direct positive influence on young people’s intentions to adopt forestation as a strategy to mitigate climate. We also found that risk perception has a significant positive influence on attitude towards forestation as it is a critical driver of collective action against human-induced environmental problems. We conclude the paper with insights and recommendations for policymakers. Keywords: afforestation, forestation, reforestation, post-conflict, Somalia, Somaliland, Puntland, climate change, mitigation 1 of 30 Jama et al. Perception towards forestation as a strategy to mitigate climate change in Somalia 1. Introduction There is clear evidence that climate change is caused by anthropogenic activities and threatens global economic, social and environmental sustainability (IPCC 2014, Pachauri et al. 2014, Smith et al. st 2014). Climate change represents one of the 21 century’s biggest environmental challenges and to effectively reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels, mitigation strategies would need both source reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and a significant enhancement of the land sink of CO2 through photosynthesis (IPCC 2007, Pachauri et al. 2014). In recent years, there has been growing attention to forests as an effective way to mitigate climate change as they capture and store large quantities of CO2 as phytomass and in the soil (Malmsheimer et al. 2008, Bastin et al. 2019). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that the forest sector has a mitigation potential of 0.2–13.8 gigatonnes of equivalent carbon dioxide per year (GtCO2e/year) by 2030 with a cost up of to US$100/tCO2e (Smith et al. 2014). Numerous studies have examined the potential of forests for climate change mitigation and adaptation at both global and regional scales (Kurz and Apps 1995, Bourque et al. 2007, Lippke et al. 2011, Xu et al. 2018). For instance, a recent study (Bastin et al. 2019) presented global tree restoration as one of the most effective strategies for mitigating climate change by mapping global potential tree density and showing that 4.4 billion hectares of land can be forested. This could result in the worldwide restoration of forests and an increase in the forest area of about 25% without disrupting existing forests, urban or agricultural areas. Bastin et al. (2019) Argued under the current climate conditions, this could store a total of 205 Gt of carbon compared to existing emissions that of 10 Gt of carbon annual from fossil fuels and cement manufacturing. However, blanket forestation in areas that were not previously forested such as grasslands, savannas and open-canopy woodlands, is detrimental to those ecosystems (Wang et al. 2011, Veldman et al. 2015, Bond et al. 2019, Grainger et al. 2019). The role of forestation in biodiversity protection, water management, contribution to rural livelihoods, and poverty reduction through job creation has not been adequately addressed (Lewis et al. 2019a). Over 760 Mha of land have been determined to be suitable for Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) Afforestation and Reforestation (A/R) operations worldwide (Hansen et al. 2003). This provides opportunities to restore lost forest cover and support the recovery of forest landscapes in several countries that have lost forest cover. These regions would in turn serve as carbon sinks, enhance biodiversity, and provide livelihoods and quality of life for people (Stanturf et al. 2015). In Africa, forests and woodlands occupy nearly 650 million hectares of land, or 21% of the continent, and represent about 17% of the world’s forest cover (FAO 2016). Deforestation, land degradation and extreme climatic events in Africa are critical 2 of 30 Jama et al. Perception towards forestation as a strategy to mitigate climate change in Somalia topics continuously being addressed locally, regionally and internationally (FAO 2016). Nearly 8 million hectares of trees have been planted with a range of purposes including commercial round timber, reforestation of degraded land, environmental conservation, and expanding wood supplies. Notably, an ambitious conservation program (AFR100) is set to plant 100 million hectares of trees in Africa by 2030. Twenty-eight African countries pledged to the (AFR100) initiative, which is under the Bonn Challenge that targets specific area of Africa for afforestation programs. For example, Mozambique pledged one million hectares for afforestation, South Africa pledged 3.6 Mha, Kenya pledged 5.1 Mha, and Cameroon pledged 12 Mha (Lewis et al. 2019b). In East Africa, rural livelihoods are mostly dependent on rain-fed agriculture and food security is vulnerable to climate shocks. Between 1990 and 2015, roughly 1% of the region’s woodlands and forest cover has been removed annually as population grew at an average annual rate of 2% (The World Bank 2017). Somalia, which endures recurrent natural hazards, a degraded natural resource base, and the absence of a functioning state for nearly three decades, has experienced a forest cover loss of 30% in 36 years (from 9,050,000 ha in 1980 to 6,363,501 ha in 2015) (FAO 2014). An example of the land conversion that took place in northern Somalia in the two decades immediately after the start of the Somali Civil War is shown in Figure 1. This is in part due to overexploitation of woody resources for charcoal and fuelwood that ultimately contributes to environmental degradation (Oduori et al. 2011, Rembold et al. 2013). The ecosystems of Somalia are part of the arid and semi-arid belt that stretches across Africa and the trees that provide fuelwood and animal fodder are dependent on the availability of water (Abdi et al. 2017). However, droughts are becoming increasingly more frequent (Masih et al. 2014) and have taken a toll on these ecosystems. Furthermore, the emergence of lawlessness also contributes to the reduction of woody cover and the subsequent degradation of ecosystems in Somalia (FAO 2014). 3 of 30 Jama et al. Perception towards forestation as a strategy to mitigate climate change in Somalia Figure 1: Change in the woody cover in northern Somalia (Somaliland and Puntland) between the start of the Somali Civil War in 1991/92 and 2015. Woody cover encompasses all land cover types that have a large woody component (e.g. forests, woodlands, savanna, shrubland). The data source is the European Space Agency’s Climate Change Initiative Land Cover dataset (Radoux et al. 2014). In view of the importance and scale of deforestation, a large-scale grassroots forest restoration campaigns are required as a matter of urgency to regenerate lost forest (Ministry of National Resources 2013). For any climate change mitigation effort to be successful, it is imperative to understand individual psychological and behavioral factors that contribute to climate action or inaction (Koger and Scott 2007, Gifford 2008, Pelletier et al. 2008, Swim et al. 2009, Gifford 2011). There has been relatively little discussion about the psychological factors that motivate or hinder the perception of young people (between 18 and 35 years of age) about forestation as a means to mitigate climate change in least-developed post- conflict countries such as Somalia because the majority of available studies are primarily from the developed world (van der Linden 2014, 2015). Thus, assessing a different socioeconomic and cultural context would help both researchers and practitioners to understand and compare the perceptions in different scenarios (Oreg and Katz-Gerro 2006). This paper attempts to shed light on our understanding of the factors that influence young people’s perception towards forestation and forest management in Somalia. 4 of 30 Jama et al. Perception towards forestation as a strategy to mitigate climate change in Somalia The remainder of this article is organized as follows: In the second section, we elaborate on the conceptual framework and derive from it a set of hypotheses. In the third section, we describe the materials and methods including data collection, survey structure and statistical modeling. In the fourth section, the results are presented. In this section, a measurement model was used to establish whether the model fits the data and then structural path analysis was used to test the hypotheses.