Task 1 Strategic PV Analysis and Outreach TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2019 REPORT IEA PVPS T1-36 : 2019 PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS TECHNOLOGY COLLABORATION PROGRAMME PVPS WHAT IS IEA PVPS TCP? The International Energy Agency (IEA), founded in 1974, is an ‘Tasks,’ that may be research projects or activity areas. This autonomous body within the framework of the Organization for report has been prepared under Task 1, which deals with market Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The and industry analysis, strategic research and facilitates the Technology Collaboration Programme (TCP) was created with a exchange and dissemination of information arising from the belief that the future of energy security and sustainability starts overall IEA PVPS Programme. with global collaboration. The programme is made up of The IEA PVPS participating countries are Australia, Austria, thousands of experts across government, academia, and Belgium, Canada, Chile, China, Denmark, Finland, France, industry dedicated to advancing common research and the Germany, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, application of specific energy technologies. the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, The IEA Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme (IEA PVPS) is Switzerland, Thailand, Turkey, and the United States of America. one of the TCP’s within the IEA and was established in 1993. The The European Commission, Solar Power Europe, the Smart mission of the programme is to “enhance the international Electric Power Alliance (SEPA), the Solar Energy Industries collaborative efforts which facilitate the role of photovoltaic solar Association and the Copper Alliance are also members. energy as a cornerstone in the transition to sustainable energy systems.” In order to achieve this, the Programme’s participants Visit us at: www.iea-pvps.org have undertaken a variety of joint research projects in PV power systems applications. The overall programme is headed by an Executive Committee, comprised of one delegate from each country or organisation member, which designates distinct AUTHORS Main Authors: G. Masson and I. Kaizuka. Analysis: I.Kaizuka (RTS Corporation), E. Bosch, A. Detollenaere, G. Neubourg, G. Masson, J. Van Wetter (Becquerel Institute). Data: IEA PVPS Reporting Countries, Becquerel Institute (BE), RTS Corporation (JP),A. Jaeger-Waldau (EU-JRC), Ch. Breyer. For the non-IEA PVPS countries: C. Werner, BSW, UNEF. Editor: G. Masson, IEA PVPS Task 1 Operating Agent. Design: Onehemisphere, Sweden. DISCLAIMER The IEA PVPS TCP is organised under the auspices of the International Energy Agency (IEA) but is functionally and legally autonomous. Views, findings and publications of the IEA PVPS TCP do not necessarily represent the views or policies of the IEA Secretariat or its individual member countries Data for non-IEA PVPS countries are provided by official contacts or experts in the relevant countries. Data are valid at the date of publication and should be considered as estimates in several countries due to the publication date. COVER IMAGE Ground mounted PV installation in Sayaton, Spain. Copyright G. Neubourg. ISBN 978-3-906042-91-6: Trends in Photovoltaic Applications 2019. IEA PVPS TRENDS 2019 IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS REPORT SCOPE AND OBJECTIVES The Trends report’s objective is to present and interpret This report presents the results of the 24th international survey. It developments in the PV power systems market and the evolving provides an overview of PV power systems applications, markets applications for these products within this market. These trends and production in the reporting countries and elsewhere at the are analysed in the context of the business, policy and end of 2018 and analyses trends in the implementation of PV nontechnical environment in the reporting countries. power systems between 1992 and 2018. Key data for this publication were drawn mostly from national survey reports and This report is prepared to assist those who are responsible for information summaries, which were supplied by representatives developing the strategies of businesses and public authorities, and from each of the reporting countries. Information from the to support the development of medium-term plans for electricity countries outside IEA PVPS are drawn from a variety of sources utilities and other providers of energy services. It also provides and, while every attempt is made to ensure their accuracy, the guidance to government officials responsible for setting energy validity of some of these data cannot be assured with the same policy and preparing national energy plans. The scope of the level of confidence as for IEA PVPS member countries. report is limited to PV applications with a rated power of 40 W or more. National data supplied are as accurate as possible at the time of publication. Data accuracy on production levels and system prices varies, depending on the willingness of the relevant national PV industry to provide data. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This report has been prepared under the supervision by Task 1 participants. A special thanks to all of them. The report authors also gratefully acknowledge special support of Mary Brunisholz, IEA PVPS and NET Ltd. IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2019 / 3 IEA PVPS TRENDS 2019 IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS FOREWORD On behalf of the IEA PVPS Technology Collaboration capacity of 103 GW. Regardless of this strong concentration, the Programme, I am pleased to present the 24th international number of countries that are entering the PV market with survey report on Trends in Photovoltaic (PV) Applications to you. significant market developments is increasing. This report, based on careful analysis of the growing and On the cost side, further record PPAs have been announced for diversifying market for photovoltaic power systems, has been large scale PV systems at below 2 USDcents per kWh, confirming prepared by the IEA PVPS Task 1 expert group “Strategic PV the increasing competitiveness that PV can reach under the best Analysis and Outreach”. With a particular focus on IEA PVPS conditions. Despite these very competitive prices in a favourable members, the report aims to provide a detailed picture of the market environment, the regulatory framework and its further worldwide and country-specific photovoltaic market trends, the evolution towards market mechanisms remain significantly various drivers and policies, the status of the industry and important for the further development of worldwide PV markets. discusses the increasing role of PV in the energy system. This In recent years, utility-scale PV systems have dominated the PV year’s report covers the market and industry development up to market; however, distributed PV systems, namely on commercial 2018 and highlights some more recently observed trends. and industrial premises, are becoming more important in many Similar to the year before, 103 GW of PV power systems have countries, due to their favourable economics; in particular when been installed globally in 2018, bringing the total installed capacity combined with increased self-consumption. The ongoing cost to over 512 GW or half a TW. We observe a confirmation of the reduction of PV systems also favours increasing off-grid markets strong role of PV deployment in Asia. Despite an important whereby – due to their very small size – these are better reduction in China’s PV market (from 52,9 GW in 2017 to 44,3 GW characterized by their large number (millions) of installed systems in 2018), due to changing framework conditions during 2018, this than their installed capacity. Their role in massively bringing country kept its leadership, both in annual as well as total installed affordable electricity services to rural areas in emerging and capacity. China’s annual installed PV capacity is followed by India developing countries is another important trend observed in the (10,8 GW), the United States (10,7 GW), Japan (6,7 GW) and PV market. Finally, with its rising level of penetration in electric Australia (3,8 GW). Eleven countries installed more than 1 GW in grids, PV is more and more affecting electricity systems as a 2018 and 31 countries reached a cumulative capacity of 1 GW and whole and the integration into various technical, application and more. The countries with the ten largest annually installed PV market environments becomes crucial. These are just a few capacities account for about 87% of the total annual installed highlights of the wealth of information that this 24th edition of the IEA PVPS Trends report hopes to provide to you! Stefan Nowak Chairman IEA PVPS Programme IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2019 / 4 IEA PVPS TRENDS 2019 IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD 4 1. INTRODUCTION TO THE CONCEPTS AND METHODOLOGY 7 PV TECHNOLOGY 7 PV APPLICATIONS AND MARKET SEGMENTS 8 METHODOLOGY FOR THE MAIN PV MARKET DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS 9 2. PV MARKET DEVELOPMENT TRENDS 10 THE GLOBAL PV INSTALLED CAPACITY 10 THE MARKET EVOLUTION 11 PV DEVELOPMENT PER REGION AND SEGMENT 20 PV PENETRATION PER CAPITA 21 THE AMERICAS 21 ASIA PACIFIC 25 EUROPE 31 MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA 42 3. POLICY FRAMEWORK 47 PV MARKET DRIVERS 48 THE SUPPORT SCHEMES 49 COST OF SUPPORT SCHEMES 53 SOFT COSTS 54 INNOVATIVE BUSINESS MODELS 54 GRID INTEGRATION 54 SUSTAINABLE BUILDING REQUIREMENTS 55 ELECTRICITY STORAGE 56 4. TRENDS IN THE PV INDUSTRY 58 THE UPSTREAM PV SECTOR 58 DOWNSTREAM SECTOR 68 TRADE CONFLICTS 70 5. SOCIETAL IMPLICATIONS OF PV 72 VALUE FOR THE