Coping with the Long Term An Empirical Analysis of Time Perspectives, Time Orientations, and Temporal Uncertainty in Forestry Coping with the Long Term An Empirical Analysis of Time Perspectives, Time Orientations, and Temporal Uncertainty in Forestry Marjanke Alberttine Hoogstra Marjanke A. Hoogstra Coping with the Long Term An Empirical Analysis of Time Perspectives, Time Orientations, and Temporal Uncertainty in Forestry Marjanke Alberttine Hoogstra Promotoren: Prof. dr. H. (Heiner) Schanz Hoogleraar Märkte der Wald- und Holzwirtschaft Institut für Forst- und Umweltpolitik Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, Duitsland Prof. dr. B.J.M (Bas) Arts Hoogleraar Bos- en Natuurbeleid Leerstoelgroep Bos- en Natuurbeleid Wageningen Universiteit, Nederland Promotiecommissie: Prof. dr. ir. G.M.J. Mohren (Wageningen Universiteit, Nederland) Prof. dr. G. Oesten (Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, Duitsland) Dr. M. Pregernig (Universität für Bodenkultur Wien, Oostenrijk) Prof. dr. B.J. Thorsen (Københavns Universitet, Denemarken) Dit onderzoek is uitgevoerd binnen Mansholt Graduate School of Social Sciences Coping with the Long Term An Empirical Analysis of Time Perspectives, Time Orientations, and Temporal Uncertainty in Forestry Marjanke Alberttine Hoogstra Proefschrift ter verkrijging van de graad van doctor op gezag van de rector magnificus van Wageningen Universiteit, Prof. dr. M.J. Kropff, in het openbaar te verdedigen op dinsdag 16 december 2008 des middags te half twee in de Aula Hoogstra, M.A. [2008] Coping with the Long Term - An Empirical Analysis of Time Perspectives, Time Orientations, and Temporal Uncertainty in Forestry. PhD thesis Forest and Nature Conservation Policy Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the Netherlands. With references - with summary in Dutch and in English. ISBN 978-90-8585-242-1 The Road goes ever on and on Down from the door where it began. Now far ahead the Road has gone, And I must follow it, if I can, Pursuing it with eager feet, Until it joins some larger way Where many paths and errands meet. And whither then? I cannot say. Walking song from Tolkien’s Lord of the Rings - For my grandparents - I Contents CONTENTS ................................................................................................................................I SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................... VII PREFACE ...............................................................................................................................XI 1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background ........................................................................................................ 1 1.2 Defining the research problem ........................................................................... 4 1.3 Research objective and research question .......................................................... 7 1.4 Research approach.............................................................................................. 7 1.5 Structure of the thesis....................................................................................... 10 2 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK .................................................................................... 11 2.1 The future time ................................................................................................. 11 2.1.1 Defining time ......................................................................................... 11 2.1.2 Time and action ..................................................................................... 12 2.1.3 Time perspectives................................................................................... 14 2.1.4 Time orientation..................................................................................... 16 2.1.5 Individual and cultural time................................................................... 17 2.2 The future time as source of uncertainty .......................................................... 18 2.2.1 The unknowable future........................................................................... 18 2.2.2 Uncertainty and action .......................................................................... 20 2.2.3 The social construction of uncertainty................................................... 21 2.3 Coping with uncertainty ................................................................................... 22 2.3.1 Rationality and bounded rationality ...................................................... 22 2.3.2 The limits to the rational models ........................................................... 25 2.3.3 Towards an alternative to rational action ............................................. 28 2.3.4 The concept of sensemaking................................................................... 33 2.3.5 Sensemaking versus (bounded) rational action ..................................... 39 2.4 Recapitulation................................................................................................... 40 II 3 TIME PERSPECTIVES ................................................................................................. 43 3.1 Methodology .................................................................................................... 43 3.1.1 Research approach................................................................................ 43 3.1.2 Data collection ...................................................................................... 44 3.1.3 Data analysis......................................................................................... 48 3.2 Results.............................................................................................................. 49 3.2.1 Forest management planning ................................................................ 49 3.2.2 Future time perspectives........................................................................ 52 3.3 Reflection on the results................................................................................... 55 4 TIME ORIENTATIONS ................................................................................................ 59 4.1 Methodology .................................................................................................... 59 4.1.1 Research approach................................................................................ 59 4.1.2 Data collection ...................................................................................... 60 4.1.3 Data analysis......................................................................................... 64 4.2 Results.............................................................................................................. 66 4.2.1 Individual time orientations................................................................... 66 4.2.2 Individual characteristics as determinants of time orientations............ 68 4.3 Reflection on the results................................................................................... 69 5 (U N)C ERTAINTY ....................................................................................................... 73 5.1 Methodology .................................................................................................... 73 5.1.1 Research approach................................................................................ 73 5.1.2 Data collection ...................................................................................... 75 5.1.3 Data analysis......................................................................................... 76 5.2 Results.............................................................................................................. 78 5.2.1 Expressing (un)certainty in forestry ...................................................... 78 5.2.2 (Un)Certainty and time.......................................................................... 80 5.2.3 Factors influencing expressed (un)certainty.......................................... 81 5.3 Reflections on the results ................................................................................. 83 6 DISCUSSION ............................................................................................................... 85 6.1 Coping with the uncertain future in forestry..................................................... 85 6.1.1 The (far) future in forestry..................................................................... 85 6.1.2 Coping with uncertainty ........................................................................ 87 III 6.2 The future of long-range planning in forestry .................................................. 91 6.2.1 Current planning and its consequences for forest management ............ 91 6.2.2 Enhancing sensemaking in forestry ....................................................... 92 6.2.3 Scenario thinking in forestry.................................................................. 95 6.2.4 Not uncertainty, but surprise ................................................................. 98 7 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................... 101 7.1 Conclusions .................................................................................................... 101 7.2 Recommendations .........................................................................................