Local Action for Biodiversity (LAB), City of Cape Town Biodiversity and Climate Change Assessment Report Step 1 of LAB Pioneer Biodiversity and Climate Change Project Environmental Resource Management Department, City of Cape Town October 2011 Executive Summary Cape Town is located in the Cape Floristic Region global biodiversity hotspot in one of the world’s five Mediterranean-climate regions. The municipal area covers 2,460 km2 and is home to 3.8 million people. Cape Town has a 307 km coastline, two mountain chains, lowland hills and plains and supports a wide range of natural ecosystems, habitats and species. The Mediterranean-climate regime dates from about 28 million years ago. This long time-span together with the diverse physical environment resulted in diversification of the flora and fauna that we observe today. However, this unique biodiversity is under threat, primarily from habitat conversion to agriculture and urban development, with invasive alien species being the second-most important impact. Global climate change also poses a significant threat to biodiversity. Global climate change is driven by increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, resulting from the burning of fossil fuels and the destruction of natural vegetation cover. The general public is aware of the former, but less so of the latter driver of climate change. In Cape Town the climate is predicted to change in a number of ways: Altered rainfall patterns: overall drying with a shorter winter rainfall season, but more intensive, heavy rainfall events or storms. These changes will differ between mountain and lowland environments. Increased temperature, especially for the December-March and July-September periods, with predictions of +1.5 oC at the coast and +2-3 oC inland of the coastal mountains. It is also predicted that the prevailing summer south-east wind will become stronger. At a global scale, the sea level is expected to rise 0.2 m by 2020 and 1.0 m by 2100. This, coupled with the predicted increase in frequency and severity of storm surges, is expected to have a significant and detrimental impact on Cape Town’s coast. Second-order impacts of climate change include flooding, droughts, increased fire risk and invasions by alien species as well as socio-economic impacts arising from the loss of ecosystem services. Whereas we are certain that global climate change will impact on biodiversity, both at the species and ecosystem level, it is not yet clear how biodiversity will react, as natural variability does allow for some local adaptation. The projected reduction in winter rainfall and increase in droughts will negatively impact seasonal wetland communities. The rise in sea level and increase in storm surge events will erode coastal ecosystems, including dune strandveld vegetation. Many of these ecosystems already are reduced to narrow strips or are confined by urban development and cannot retreat inland. The City of Cape Town relies on many ecosystem services provided by biodiversity. Maintaining healthy ecosystems in the face of global climate change is thus essential in creating a resilient city. Worldwide, ecosystem-based approaches to climate change adaptation and mitigation have been shown to be cost- effective and generate social, economic and cultural co-benefits while helping to conserve biodiversity. Adaptation is defined as proactive actions that will reduce the risk of impacts from climate change. An example is ecosystem-based coastal defence strategy: more effective regulation of coastal development and activities to protect and retain coastal dune ecosystems, as well as the restoration of degraded coastal ecosystems, which will in turn provide improved protection of existing infrastructure. Another example is the control of invasive alien plants in natural vegetation areas: this will promote recovery of native plant communities so that they become more resilient to climate change impacts and can resume delivering ecosystem services. 1 Mitigation is defined as actions taken to alleviate or reduce the continuation of climate change. Natural ecosystems play a critical role as carbon sinks. Ecosystem-based approaches include good management of nature reserves and other natural open spaces and the restoration of degraded vegetation areas. Research indicates that local ecosystems (such as fynbos and renosterveld) sequester more carbon than degraded land and agricultural areas. The City of Cape Town is involved in several pro-active climate change adaptation and mitigation initiatives, such as the “Climate Change Think Tank” and the “Energy and Climate Action Plan”. More directly related to biodiversity and climate change, the Coastal Protection Zone Policy will limit future ribbon developments along the coastline, thus retaining ecological resilience and thereby promoting coastal defence. Recent stormwater policies manage stormwater quality and quantity impacts arising from urban development throughout the catchment and further, limit development in wetland and riparian buffers thus retaining resilience in these ecosystems, important for flood control. The systematic conservation plan for the city (Biodiversity Network) encompasses terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and natural corridors. Future iterations of this plan will ensure that climate change adaptation measures are incorporated as far as is possible. The City of Cape Town’s Biodiversity Management Branch has adopted tools to manage City-owned nature reserves effectively and policy to control invasive alien species. Future plans include ecological restoration in degraded areas of the Biodiversity Network. All these activities are crucial in adapting the city to climate change. Furthermore, maintaining and restoring functioning ecosystems will also ensure the flow of ecosystem services and contribute to climate change mitigation. 2 Table of Contents Executive Summary ………………………………………………….………..……..……............................... 1 1.0 Introduction …………………………………………………………………………………..…………....... 4 1.1 Introduction to the City of Cape Town ………………………………………………………….................. 4 1.2 Overview of Cape Town’s Biodiversity ………………………………………………………………………. 5 1.3 Current Understanding of Climate Change in Cape Town ……………………………………….……….. 8 2.0 Climate Change Impacts on Cape Town …………………………………………………………..……. 9 2.1 Observed Changes in Cape Town’s Climate …………………………………………………………..……. 9 2.2 Overview of Climate Risks: 1st Order Impacts ………………………………………………………..……… 10 2.3 Overview of Climate Risks: 2nd Order Impacts ……………………………………………………….……… 13 2.4 Climate Change Impacts on Biodiversity …………………………………………………………..………... 14 3.0 Creating a Resilient City with Biodiversity …….……………………………………………………….. 15 3.1 Ecosystem-Based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation …………………………... 15 3.2 Biodiversity’s Role in Climate Change Adaptation ………………………………………………….………. 16 3.3 Biodiversity’s Role in Climate Change Mitigation …………………………………………………………... 19 3.4 Adapting the Biodiversity Agenda to Climate Change …………………………………………………….. 20 4.0 Climate Change Initiatives in Cape Town …………..…………………………………………..……… 20 4.1 Current Initiatives …..…………………………………………………………………………….…………… 21 4.2 Future Initiatives ………………………………………………………………………………….…………… 23 5.0 Acknowledgements ………………………………………………………………………………………… 23 6.0 References …………..………………………………………………….………………………….………… 24 3 1.0 Introduction The City of Cape Town is internationally recognised for its natural beauty, Mediterranean climate and unique biodiversity (Holmes et al. 2008). Located in the Cape Floristic Region (CFR) global biodiversity hotspot, which is also a World Heritage Site recognised by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN), Cape Town welcomes a constant flow of visitors every year from around the world. With this rich natural environment and a highly complex social and economic urban fabric, climate change brings further challenges to efforts in protecting biodiversity. The City of Cape Town Municipality (City) is one of the Local Action for Biodiversity (LAB) pioneer cities and hosts the ICLEI Cities Biodiversity Centre. The City opted to continue into the LAB Phase 2 Pioneer Biodiversity and Climate Change project for a number of reasons, including: • Conserving biodiversity and ecosystems is central to the area’s resilience in a changing climate • Communicating the role of biodiversity for a climate-resilient city to politicians and decision-makers is a powerful tool in motivating for biodiversity conservation • To review and stimulate thinking around the implications of climate change for biodiversity • To determine the links between biodiversity and climate change adaptation and mitigation, in order to align these for efficient planning and implementation. 1.1 Introduction to the City of Cape Town The City of Cape Town is situated at the south-western tip of Africa and in 2011 is home to approximately 3.8 million people. The City is a recent amalgamation of a number of local municipalities into one metropolitan area, or unicity, and administers an area of 2,460 km2. Like all South African cities and towns, Cape Town developed within the context of apartheid policies and laws in the 20th century, resulting in an urban city that today has many social and economic inequalities. As a result, Cape Town is a mix of well- developed, advantaged suburban and urban areas surrounded by impoverished, environmentally-poor disadvantaged areas characterised by large numbers of informal settlements and urban sprawl. Cape Town does not have