#35 5 Dec 2000 USAF COUNTERPROLIFERATION CENTER CPC OUTREACH JOURNAL Air University Air War College Maxwell AFB, Alabama Welcome to the CPC Outreach Journal. As part of USAF Counterproliferation Center’s mission to counter weapons of mass destruction through education and research, we’re providing our government and civilian community a source for timely counterproliferation information. This information includes articles, papers and other documents addressing issues pertinent to US military response options for dealing with nuclear, biological and chemical threats and attacks. It’s our hope this information resource will help enhance your counterproliferation issue awareness. Established here at the Air War College in 1998, the USAF/CPC provides education and research to present and future leaders of the Air Force, as well as to members of other branches of the armed services and Department of Defense. Our purpose is to help those agencies better prepare to counter the threat from weapons of mass destruction. Please feel free to visit our web site at www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/awc-cps.htm for in-depth information and specific points of contact. Please direct any questions or comments on CPC Outreach Journal to Lt. Col. Michael W. Ritz, CPC Intelligence/Public Affairs or JoAnn Eddy, CPC Outreach Editor, at (334) 953- 7538 or DSN 493-7538. The following articles, papers or documents do not necessarily reflect official endorsement of the United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or other US government agencies. Reproduction for private use or commercial gain is subject to original copyright restrictions. All rights are reserved. Ten Tons of Russian Nuclear Material Secured WASHINGTON, DC, November 21, 2000 (ENS) - Ten metric tons of Russian weapons grade nuclear material, enough for more than 500 nuclear bombs, has been moved into secure storage at the Novosibirsk Chemical Concentrates Plant in Siberia. The nuclear storage upgrade is part of a joint program of the U.S. Department of Energy and the Federal Nuclear and Radiation Safety Authority of the Russian Federation signed in 1993 - the U.S.-Russian Material Protection, Control and Accounting (MPC&A) Program. The materials were moved from three separate storage locations to a new central storage facility equipped with comprehensive nuclear material security and accounting systems. The new facility is designed to protect the plutonium and highly enriched uranium against theft or diversion. With 1.5 million people, Novosibirsk, the capital of Siberia, is the third largest city in Russia. (Photo courtesy Sacha Telnov) The announcement Friday coincided with the visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to Novosibirsk for a conference on the development strategy for the Sibir Federal District. While in Novosibirsk, Putin met with the managerial staff of the Institute of Nuclear Physics and the Siberian branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Scientists from the two countries are working with more than 40 sites in Russia to assist in upgrading their physical protection and material accountancy systems for nuclear materials. The successful storage upgrade "shows the continuing commitment of the United States and Russia to reduce the risk that terrorists or countries of proliferation concern might acquire nuclear materials for use in a weapon," said U.S. Energy Secretary Bill Richardson Friday. "It is essential we continue this vital work to protect America's security and safety." The DOE officials say participation in the MPC&A Program is expected to expand considerably in the coming years, as the number of facilities participating in the program increases. Of special significance is new work with the Russian navy and the Murmansk Shipping Company to protect the fuel for their nuclear powered vessels and proposed work at the Serial Production Enterprises - the Russian weapon assembly and disassembly plants. Sizable consolidation projects are also underway at large nuclear facilities like the Scientific Production Association in Luch and the Institute of Physics and Power Engineering in Obninsk. Experimental facilities at the Krylov Shipbuilding Institute (Photo courtesy Krylov) In 1998, the Russian government and the U.S. Department of Energy working together installed nuclear material protection technology and advanced material control and accounting systems at the State Research Institute, Scientific Industrial Association at Luch and the Krylov Shipbuilding Institute at St. Petersburg. Physical protection devices installed include motion detectors, cameras and vibration sensors placed in areas containing weapons grade material at Luch and Krylov. Consolidation efforts will reduce the number of storage areas by roughly 65 percent at these facilities, greatly increasing the efficiency by which both countries can ensure that nuclear material in Russia remains secure now and well after work at the sites is complete. The MPC&A program was launched in 1993 in partnership with Russia and the New Independent States to correct serious deficiencies in systems to secure nuclear materials against insider and outsider threats. Through this program, security upgrades are underway for 750 metric tons of the estimated 960 metric tons of nuclear materials requiring security. The main thrusts of the program are to: ? install modern physical security and material accounting systems ? reduce risks by consolidating materials into fewer buildings ? converting highly enriched uranium to forms not usable in weapons ? promote sustainability by fostering the development of Russian capabilities to maintain security up Washington Times November 22, 2000 Pg. 17 China Not Jesting About War By Cheng Li We are closer to a military flash point in the Far East than many in the United States and around the world understand or care to admit. I am convinced that China will use force if Taiwan continues on a speedy path toward independence. A just-published Chinese government "white paper" affirms this intent to use force to prevent Taiwan from being formally independent of the mainland or even refusing the "one China principle." In preparation, China recently completed its largest scale military rehearsal since 1964, sending a clear message to Taiwanese leaders. This is not a pretty picture. Beijing feels backed into a corner to act or lose its credibility with its people. Twice this year Chinese Prime Minister Zhu Rongji has said, "We will not let it independence happen." Both Mr. Zhu and Communist Party boss Jiang Zemin recently stated that: "China will not postpone the issue of reunification endlessly." In fact, domestic turmoil would result if China failed to respond to a formal break by Taiwan. The government likely would not survive such unrest, especially at a time when many in China have been disappointed by the growing disparity caused by economic reform and rampant official corruption. Nationalism is strong among Chinese intellectuals now - a very different mind-set from Tiananmen Square demonstration days. Perceived humiliations by the West have set them on edge. These include the bombing of the Chinese embassy in Yugoslavia, the Cox report accusing China of espionage and "hectoring" of China over human rights. They feel China has made too many concessions to the United States in its entry to the World Trade Organization, which will throw millions of workers into unemployment. They also feel that China is en route to becoming an economic power and that this makes the United States uneasy about loss of hegemony. As a result, they believe the United States wants to use Taiwan as "an unsinkable aircraft carrier" to contain China. So the island is a flash point in U.S.-Chinese relations. There is a widely used saying in China that goes, "The early war would be better than the later war." This reflects the belief that China is in the early stages of modernization, despite its rapid economic growth during the past two decades. Thus an "early war" wouldn't cause as much economic damage as would armed conflict several years from now. Despite what many believe, China's policy toward Taiwan is not aimed at immediate reunification with the island. That is a long-term goal and a principle of sovereignty. Immediate reunification would actually hurt China's economy because Taiwan's prosperity has been good for the mainland. Over half of the direct investment in China comes from Taiwan. It would also be politically uncomfortable with Taiwan having a democratic government and China an authoritarian rule. Chinese leaders know that if they occupy Taiwan, it would not be the end of their problems, but probably the beginning of new ones. Rather, China simply seeks to preserve the status quo and suppress the Taiwanese independence movement. I was in Taiwan in March when the pro-independence party was elected with only 39 percent of the vote. Many believe that if the voting were held again, independence advocates would lose because large numbers in Taiwan are afraid of China and would rather maintain the status quo. Taiwan's new leaders, for their part, seem headed toward independence. Taiwanese government officials are visiting foreign capitals to drum up support. They want to launch a new effort for U.N. membership. They're even afraid of using the street signs that are consistent with the Romanization system widely used in Chinese-speaking communities in the world, including China. U.S. policy-makers must understand that China really does not want to occupy Taiwan. China wants to maintain the situation as it is, while suppressing the current independence movement in Taiwan at the same time. President Clinton knows this, but Congress, by and large, does not know or does not share his views. U.S. policy should be to continue to engage China on all fronts - economic, educational, cultural and other areas. It should also give pressure to both sides of the Taiwan Strait to be restrained. The permanent normal trade partner measure that Mr. Clinton recently signed means that China will not be annually reviewed for its human rights conditions, a positive step toward improving U.S.-Chinese relations.