COP16 • DAY 1 CANCUN, MEXICO • NOVEMBER 29th, 2010 OUTREACH a multi-stakeholderOUTREACH magazine on environment and sustainable development. KNOWINGKNOWING HIGHHIGH NOONNOON SUCCESSSUCCESS IFIF ININ CANCUN:CANCUN: CANCAN WEWE STILLSTILL MAKEMAKE YOUYOU SEESEE ITIT PROGRESSPROGRESS ININ THETHE ROBERTROBERT N.N. STAVINSSTAVINS UNFCCC?UNFCCC? A HISTORIC WHICHWHICH WAYWAY CONSENSUS AT FORFOR CANCUN?CANCUN? THE NAGOYA BIODIVERSITY FROMFROM THETHE COPENHAGENCOPENHAGEN DISCORDDISCORD TOTO THETHE SUMMIT COCHABAMBACOCHABAMBA ACCORDACCORD Knowing Success if You See It Robert Stavins John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University By: Christie Kneteman, Islands First PHOTO: Shutterstock.com The key challenge of the climate negotiations in Cancun -- the Sixteenth Conference of the Parties (COP-16) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) – is to continue the process of constructing a sound foundation for meaningful, long-term global action. ome of the gloom-and-doom Second, the cost-effective path for notion of immediate “success.” predictions made about these stabilizing concentrations involves a Snegotiations are misleading, because gradual ramp-up in target severity, to Major Long-Term Achievements they are based upon unreasonable – and avoid rendering large parts of the capital are Needed, Not Minor Short- fundamentally inappropriate – expectations stock prematurely obsolete. (despite the fact that expectations have Term Gains been lowered dramatically since COP-15 Third, massive technological change in Copenhagen last year). is the key to the needed transition from It might be relatively easy, but actually quite reliance on carbon-intensive fossil fuels unfortunate, for countries to achieve what some people might define as “success” in Keeping Your Eyes on the Prize to more climate-friendly energy sources. Long-term price signals (most likely from Cancun: a signed international agreement, followed by glowing press releases. I say Why do I say that the best goal for the government policies) will be needed to it would be unfortunate, because such Cancun climate talks is to make real inspire such technological change. an agreement could only be the Kyoto progress on a sound foundation for Protocol on steroids: more stringent meaningful, long-term global action, not Fourth and finally, the creation of long- targets for the original list of industrialized some notion of immediate triumph? This lasting international institutions is central countries (Annex I) and no meaningful is because of some basic scientific and to addressing this global challenge. commitments by the key rapidly-growing economic realities. This is not to suggest that there should be emerging economies, such as China, India, Brazil, Korea, Mexico, and South the focus of scientists is (and the anything other than a sense of urgency First, Africa. focus of policy makers should be) on brought to these efforts to address the stabilizing concentrations of greenhouse threat of climate change. But for all of Such an agreement could — in principle — gases in the atmosphere at acceptable the reasons above, international climate be signed, but it would not reduce global levels by the year 2050 and beyond, negotiations will be an ongoing process, emissions, and it would not be ratified by because it is the accumulated stock of not a single task with a clear end-point. the U.S. Senate (just like Kyoto). Hence, greenhouse gas emissions — not the flow So, the bottom-line is that a sensible there would be no real progress on climate of emissions in any year — that are linked goal for the international negotiations in change. with climate consequences. Cancun is progress on a sound foundation for meaningful long-term action, not some 1 What Will Real Progress in Protocol between Annex I and non-Annex Cancun Look Like? I countries. (Note that more than 50 non- Annex I countries have greater per capita income than the poorest of the Annex I If it is not reasonable to expect that ROBERT N. STAVINS a comprehensive post-Kyoto policy countries.) architecture will be identified and enacted Robert N. Stavins is the Albert Pratt in Cancun, what will constitute real The UNFCCC principle of “common Professor of Business and Government progress? but differentiated responsibilities” could be made meaningful through the dual at the Harvard Kennedy School, Director principles that: all countries recognize their of the Harvard Environmental Economics 1.Embracing Parallel Processes historic emissions (read, the industrialized Program, Faculty Chairman of Doctoral world); and all countries are responsible Programs, Co Chair of the Harvard A significant step forward would be for for their future emissions (think of those Business School Kennedy School Joint the UNFCCC to embrace the parallel rapidly-growing emerging economies). Degree Programs, and Director of the processes that are carrying out multilateral Harvard Project on Climate Agreements. discussions (and in some cases, This would represent a great leap beyond He is a University Fellow of Resources for negotiations) on climate change policy: what has become the “QWERTY keyboard” the Future, a Research Associate of the the Major Economies Forum or MEF (a (that is, unproductive path dependence) of National Bureau of Economic Research, multilateral venue for discussions – but international climate policy: the distinction Co-Editor of the Review of Environmental not negotiations – outside of the UNFCCC, in the Kyoto Protocol between the small Economics and Policy, and a member of initiated by the United States); the G20 set of Annex I countries with quantitative the Board of Directors of Resources for (periodic meetings of the finance ministers targets, and the majority of countries in the Future, the Scientific Advisory Board – and sometimes heads of government the world with no responsibilities. Various of the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, and – of the twenty largest economies in the policy architectures could subsequently editorial boards of numerous academic world); and various other multilateral and build on these dual principles and make journals. bilateral organizations and discussions. them operational, beginning to bridge the massive political divide which exists The most sensible goal for Cancun is progress on a sound foundation for meaningful long-term action, not some notion of immediate triumph. The previous leadership of the UNFCCC between the industrialized and the seemed to view the MEF, the G20, developing world. and most other non-UNFCCC forums as competition – indeed, as a threat. At the Harvard Project on Climate Fortunately, the UNFCCC’s new leadership Agreements — a multi-national initiative under Executive Secretary Christiana with some 35 research projects in Figueres has displayed a considerably Australia, China, Europe, India, Japan, more positive and pragmatic attitude and the United States — we have toward these parallel processes. developed a variety of architectural proposals that could make these dual 2. Consolidating Negotiations principles operational. (See, for example: Tracks “Global Climate Policy Architecture and Political Feasibility: Specific Formulas and There are three major and somewhat Emission Targets to Attain 460 PPM CO2 parallel processes operative: first, the Concentrations” by Valentina Bosetti and UNFCCC’s KP track (negotiating national Jeffrey Frankel; and “Three Key Elements targets for a possible second commitment of Post-2012 International Climate Policy The Bottom Line period – post-2012 – for the Kyoto Architecture” by Sheila M. Olmstead and Protocol); second, the LCA track (the Robert N. Stavins.) It is important to bring to the Cancun UNFCCC’s negotiation track for Long- discussions sensible expectations and term Cooperative Action); and third, the 3. Productive Steps in Narrow, effective plans. Negotiations in this Copenhagen Accord, negotiated and domain will be an ongoing process, not Focused Agreements, such as a single task with a clear end-point. The noted at COP-15 in Copenhagen last year. REDD+ Consolidating these three tracks into two most sensible goal for Cancun is progress tracks (or better yet, one track) would be on a sound foundation for meaningful long- another significant step forward. A third area of success at the Cancun term action, not some notion of immediate negotiations could be realized by some triumph. The key question is not what One way this could happen would be for productive steps with specific, narrow Cancun accomplishes in the short-term, the LCA negotiations to take as their point agreements, such as on REDD+ (Reduced but whether it helps put the world in a of departure the existing Copenhagen Deforestation and Forest Degradation, better position five, ten, and twenty years Accord, which itself marked an important plus enhancement of forest carbon from now in regard to an effective long- step forward by blurring for the first time stocks). Other areas where talks are term path of action to address the threat (although not eliminating) the unproductive moving forward, although somewhat more of global climate change. Whether it does and utterly obsolete distinction in the Kyoto slowly, are finance and technology. that remains to be seen. • 2.