Terrorism & Insurgency Islamic State returnees pose threat to Europe Terror challenges The Islamic State is under intense territorial pressure in its former strongholds. James Blake and Brooks Tigner assess the outlook for foreign fighters in Iraq and Syria returning to their home countries, and analyse the likely impact on terrorism threat levels in European cities. n 25 February 2017, Max Hill, the to their home countries, as the Islamic State Key points newly appointed independent re- loses territory in Iraq and Syria and those O viewer of terrorism legislation in the foreign fi ghters return to their countries of As the Islamic State loses territory in Syria and United Kingdom, told the Daily Telegraph that origin. Exact fi gures for foreign fi ghters in Iraq, and its foreign fighters return home, the the Islamic State was planning “indiscriminate Syria and Iraq are diffi cult to establish, but threat of terrorist attacks in European cities – attacks on innocent civilians”. He compared an approximate fi gure of 5,000 Europeans albeit most likely at a relatively low level – will the level of threat to that posed by the Irish within a total of 30,000 foreign fi ghters increase markedly. Republican Army (IRA) in the 1970s, when would concur with most plausible estimates While intelligence agencies will focus on these it was conducting a campaign of bombings since 2015. These returnee fi ghters will have returnees, an arguably greater threat stems from against civilian and security forces targets in skills, connections, and training that will new networks formed in Iraq and Syria that will the mainland UK. He said, “In terms of the pose a pressing threat to the security of Euro- seek safe haven in third countries and may opt to threat that’s represented, I think the intensity pean cities, and the threat of attacks across conduct transnational operations. and the potential frequency of serious plot European cities will rise with their return. The rising returnee threat is prompting a greater planning – with a view to indiscriminate at- countermeasures response at the EU level, with tacks on innocent civilians of whatever race or Losing territory both legislative and institutional changes afoot colour in metropolitan areas – represents an For foreign fi ghters in Iraq and Syria, the out- to improve data-sharing and inter-sectoral enormous ongoing risk.” look is rapidly changing. In January 2015, the collaboration. This warning is largely because of the Islamic State controlled a large swath of terri- threat posed by foreign fi ghters returning tory which, according to IHS Markit Confl ict Three roadside bombs laid by Islamic State militants explode in a western Mosul neighbourhood, Iraq, on 8 March 2017. International e orts to combat the Islamic State have started to shrink the group’s presence, curtailing its territorial base, prestige, and power. PA: 1685311 18 | Jane’s Intelligence Review | May 2017 ihs.com/janes Islamic State returnees pose threat to Europe Terrorism & Insurgency Monitor fi gures, was approximately 90,800 km², and included territory stretching from western Iraq through to northwest Syria. It had approximately nine million people under its control. International eff orts to combat the Islamic State have started to shrink the group’s pres- ence, curtailing its territorial base, prestige, and power. Former US president Barack Obama’s administration (2009–17) adopted a 1685312 PA: multifaceted policy of ‘degrading and suff o- cating’ the Islamic State: it included directing airstrikes against the Islamic State’s person- nel, territory, and resources, with several French soldiers stand guard during a visit by French president François Hollande to a military thousand US troops training local forces and outpost on the outskirts of the Islamic State-held city of Mosul, Iraq, on 2 January 2017. providing military support. The ongoing counter-terrorism off ensive holding territory to insurgency. Sanderson, a likely reaction will be “a spasm had substantially reduced the territory held At the policy level, eff orts to combat the of violence” as it seeks to demonstrate its by the Islamic State to 60,400 km² by January Islamic State are likely to be a priority for continued relevance and enduring strength. 2017, with far fewer cities and people under the current US administration of President In his estimate, one of the group’s likely its control. In Iraq, government-led forces Donald Trump. Trump has criticised the recourses will be to conduct high-profi le pursued a campaign to retake control of cities, Obama administration for not adopting a suf- attacks in Damascus, Syria; Baghdad, Iraq; mounting an off ensive in late 2016 to retake fi ciently aggressive policy against the Islamic and internationally, including in Europe, Mosul. While the battle has been closely State, and while the results of a policy review although the circumstances in each of these fought and the Islamic State has mounted were ongoing at the time of writing, he has three cases are materially distinct. strong resistance, Iraqi-led forces, by mid- previously stated a preference for defeating It remains notable that the Islamic State March 2017, had cut off the city and were the Islamic State rather than toppling Syrian has not been able to conduct a major attack in fl ushing out remaining fi ghters. president Bashar al-Assad. Europe since the March 2016 Brussels bomb- Retaking Mosul from the Islamic State will ings; attacks since that point have been ‘lone be particularly symbolic, as it is where Islamic Regrouping and evolving actor’ attacks, even if retrospectively claimed State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi announced Thomas Sanderson, director of the Transna- by the Islamic State. Supposed clandestine – the formation of the so-called ‘caliphate’ on tional Threats Project at the Washington- or ‘sleeper’ – cells have been absent, raising 29 June 2014; it is also the last remaining based Center for Strategic and International the question of their existence and status, city in Iraq under the Islamic State’s control. Studies (CSIS), told Jane’s on 5 February that and whether they are waiting for a trigger to Its fall will represent a signifi cant pointer one of the main factors drawing young people act. towards the groups’s demise in Iraq. was the ‘bandwagon’ eff ect of the excite- The combination of counter-terrorism In Syria, there were concerted eff orts in ment about joining a “successful” resistance operations, targeted eff orts to disrupt its 2016 and early 2017 to reduce the Islamic movement. However, loss of territory means fi nancing, and the eventual loss of its ‘cali- State’s control of key cities and towns. Turk- that the group will start to lose recruitment phate’ all suggest a possible regrouping of the ish-led militants began by targeting Al-Bab power, particularly among those attracted by Islamic State, potentially evolving towards to the west of Raqqa, and by mid-March 2017 its “success” rather than for religious reasons. being a more ‘traditional’ terrorist group with there was an off ensive under way to recap- In Syria, foreign fi ghters may already be leav- a network of connections to other groups ture Raqqa, Islamic State’s main hub in Syria, ing the group to join other groups. in diff erent countries such as Afghanistan, although the battle will be more intense than Operationally, territorial losses will cause Nigeria, and Yemen, but with less territory Mosul because the group has more fi ghters in signifi cant damage to the Islamic State, under its control. the city. Anti-Islamic State forces were also particularly to its fi nancial model. A report Aya Burweila, a senior adviser at the seeking to retake Deir al-Zour in the east of released on 17 February 2017 by the Interna- Research Institute for European and Ameri- Syria, another territorial hub for the Islamic tional Centre for the Study of Radicalisation can Studies (RIEAS), a Greece-based think State. (ICSR) at King’s College London stated that tank focused on security in southeastern As the Islamic State increasingly loses terri- the Islamic State was in fi nancial trouble, Europe, told Jane’s on 9 February, “The tory, more fi ghters will seek to return to their with overall revenue shrinking by more than Islamic State will continue to conduct ter- home countries. This will likely be motivated 50% since 2014. As its territory has shrunk, rorist attacks in Europe as part of a strategy by one of two factors that are germane to it has lost tax receipts, and it will also lose to lure Western boots on the ground, where the security threat that they pose: some money because of damage to and loss of con- more opportunities for killing and captur- will be demoralised and will leave because trol of oil fi elds. ing Western soldiers, hostage-taking and their fortunes have changed, while others The Islamic State will have to adapt to sur- [therefore] propaganda for recruitment will will be dispatched back to Europe as part of vive, altering its fi nancial model, its recruit- present [themselves].” However, while the the Islamic State’s strategy of moving from ment methods, and its tactics. According to Islamic State may harbour this aspiration, ihs.com/janes May 2017 | Jane’s Intelligence Review | 19 Terrorism & Insurgency Islamic State returnees pose threat to Europe the lack of a major attack since Brussels may data between 1990 and 2010, only one in on 8 January 2017, “Experienced foreign suggest that the required profile or quantity nine Western foreign fighters returned to fighters returning from extended combat will of returnees is not in place. conduct attacks in the West. This would have a good level of security awareness, plan- nevertheless represent a substantial threat: if ning and operational expertise.