DIRECTORATE-GENERAL FOR EXTERNAL POLICIES POLICY DEPARTMENT IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS Palestine: the two-state solution under threat Author: Kirsten JONGBERG ABSTRACT Fatah recently re-elected Mahmoud Abbas as its leader, despite strong criticisms from within his party and the wider Palestinian population. Palestinian politics remain divided, both between Fatah and Hamas, but also within the Fatah party itself. Nevertheless, Fatah and Hamas recently announced the creation of a new national unity government, which could pave the way for long-overdue presidential and legislative elections (possibly in 2017). However, the animosity between the two parties is seen as having undermined the capacity of Palestinian politics to move forward as well as the moral legitimacy of its institutions. Since the April 2014 failure of the latest peace talks between Israelis and Palestinians the idea of a two-state solution appears an increasingly distant possibility. The election of US President Trump, who has spoken in defence of Israel and has appointed several pro-settlement staff in key positions, puts into question the international consensus that had emerged on Israeli settlements since the passing of UN Resolution 2334. While the international community considers Israel’s 1967 annexation illegal, Israel continues to expand settlements, demolish houses and evict residents in East Jerusalem and the West Bank. These actions have increased in magnitude since the US elections. The EU has repeatedly condemned the construction of new settlements, which jeopardises the two-state solution as well as the possibility that Jerusalem could serve as the future capital of two states. FOR EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT INTERNAL USE ONLY DG EXPO/B/PolDep/Note/2017_6 EN January 2017 - DV\1116488EN - PE598.342 © European Union, 2017 Policy Department, Directorate-General for External Policies This paper was requested by the European Parliament's Delegation for Relations with Palestine. The English-language manuscript was completed on 3 February 2017. It will be translated into EL, ES and FR. Author: Kirsten JONGBERG, with contributions from Benjamin REY and Camille LONS (intern) Feedback of all kind is welcome. Please write to the author: [email protected]. This paper will be published on the intranet site of the European Parliament's policy departments. The content of this document is the sole responsibility of the author and any opinions expressed therein do not necessarily represent the official position of the European Parliament. It is addressed to the Members and staff of the EP for their parliamentary work. Reproduction and translation for non-commercial purposes are authorised, provided the source is acknowledged and the European Parliament is given prior notice and sent a copy. Palestine: the two-state solution under threat Table of contents 1 Domestic politics 4 1.1 Palestinian parties 4 1.2 A government of national unity 5 1.3 Palestine, statehood and the ICC 7 2 Middle East Peace Process 8 2.1 An uncertain future for the Peace Process 8 2.2 The EU and EP positions on the Middle East Peace Process 10 3 EU cooperation and aid to Palestinians 11 3.1 EU-Palestine relations 11 3.2 EU aid to Palestine 12 4 Disputed territory 14 4.1 Israel, Palestine and the 1967 borders 14 4.2 Residency, access and movement 15 4.3 Settlement expansions, house demolitions and evictions 16 4.4 Settlements, demolitions and the EU 19 4.4.1 The demolition of EU-funded structures 19 4.4.2 EU policy on Israeli settlements 19 4.4.3 Labelling of settlement products 20 5 The situation in Gaza 21 5.1 Life under blockade 21 5.2 The 2014 war and the reconstruction of Gaza 22 5.3 Intra-Palestinian reconciliation and negotiating with Hamas 23 5.4 The EU and EP positions on Gaza 23 6 Human rights 24 6.1 Palestinian refugee camps in the West Bank 24 6.2 The detention of children 24 7 European Parliament policy options 27 8 Map: Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories 28 3 Policy Department, Directorate-General for External Policies 1 Domestic politics 1.1 Palestinian parties Palestinian politics are dominated by two main parties: Fatah, a secular leftist party founded in the late 1950s by Yasser Arafat and led today by Mahmoud Abbas, and Hamas, an Islamic resistance movement that emerged in 1988 from the Islamic Muslim Brotherhood movement in opposition to the Oslo Accords. Fatah was the strongest and best organised of the Palestinian factions until the al-Aqsa intifada, and its control over the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO) has made it the main representative of Palestinian interests to the international community. However, since Hamas’ victory at the 2006 parliamentary elections and its Although Fatah and Hamas unilateral decision to form a ruling ‘government’ in Gaza, the party has dominate the political challenged Fatah’s grip on power and its right to represent all Palestinians. scene in Palestine, other Although Fatah and Hamas dominate the Palestinian political scene, jointly parties do exist and are taking 93 % of the seats at the 2006 parliamentary elections, other parties trying to break through. do exist. In August 2016, five left-wing factions announced a unified list for the coming local elections, aiming at presenting a valid alternative to the main two parties. This list, called the Democratic Alliance, includes the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP), the Palestinian Democratic Union (FIDA), the Palestinian’s People Party (PPP) and the Palestinian National Initiative (PNI). These parties promotes a renewal of the political class, improved inclusion of women and youth and fight against corruption1. Fatah held its long-awaited general congress (its seventh) from 2 Fatah’s recent general 29 November to 4 December 2016 . Fatah’s last general congress was in congress was the first to be 2009 and the party had been unable to hold a new congress due to severe held since 2009. internal tensions, including the open campaign against President Abbas launched by Mohammed Dahlan, the former Fatah strongman in Gaza, from his exile in Abu Dhabi. Dahlan and his supporters were excluded from the most recent conference3. Abbas’s show of force during the congress secured him the re-election as leader of the party and undermined any Mahmoud Abbas secured future challenges by Dahlan. Abbas loyalists now hold 19 of the 21 seats in re-election as the leader of the Fatah Central Committee, the top decision-making body of the party4. the party and his supporters won 19 of the 21 seats The very popular figure Marwan Barghouti, jailed in Israel, received the in the Fatah Central most votes and Fatah leaders are currently discussing whether he could be Committee. given the position of Vice President. Jibril Rajoub, who came second in the votes, could be chosen in place of Barghouti and would then be Fatah’s 1 Al Monitor: Hamas, Fatah no longer the only candidates in Palestinian elections, 5 August 2016. 2 Al Monitor: Hamas delegates find welcome at Fatah conference, but not trust, 7 December 2016. 3 Al Jazeera: Fatah: From liberation movement to West Bank government, 6 December 2016. 4 Reuters: Palestinian President Abbas gets boost in Fatah congress vote, 4 December 2016. 4 Palestine: the two-state solution under threat candidate in any future Palestinian presidential election5. The head of the Palestinian intelligence service, Majif Faraj, and the Secretary General of the PLO, Saeb Erekat, are also influential figures who appear as potential successors of Mahmoud Abbas6. The delegates of the Seventh Fatah Congress, who represent the next generation of Palestinian leaders, were younger (relatively speaking) and more representative of the occupied territories than the current leadership7. 1.2 A government of national unity The Hamas takeover of Gaza in 2007 created not only a territorial divide but also an institutional deadlock: • The last presidential elections were held in 2005 and the last parliamentary elections were held in 2006. New elections were scheduled for 2009, but were disrupted due to the Fatah-Hamas conflict. No agreement has yet been reached on holding new The Hamas takeover of elections. Local elections, initially scheduled for late 2016 have also Gaza in 2007 created an been postponed. institutional deadlock. • President Mahmoud Abbas, elected in 2005, has largely overstayed his initial four-year term after agreeing in 2009 to continue in his role until the next election. • The Palestinian Legislative Council, dominated by Hamas after its 2006 victory, ceased to function. In April 2014, Fatah, Hamas and other Palestinian factions agreed to form a A Palestinian government government of 'national consensus' committed to the principles set out by of 'national consensus' was President Abbas in May 2011 (i.e. a two-state solution based on the established in 2014. Its goal 1967 borders, recognition of Israel’s legitimate right to exist, nonviolence was to reunite the West and respect for previous agreements). The government had two key aims: Bank and Gaza and (1) putting an end to seven years of political division between the Fatah- organise presidential and controlled West Bank and the Hamas-controlled Gaza, and (2) organising legislative elections. presidential and legislative elections. However, renewed tensions between Fatah and Hamas in the aftermath of The 2014 war in Gaza and the 2014 war in Gaza prevented the Palestinian Authority (PA)'s return to renewed tensions between Gaza and the government of 'national consensus' collapsed in June 20158. Hamas and Fatah resulted in the collapse of the One of the main issues of tension between the Fatah-led PA and Hamas is government of ‘national the payment of Hamas-hired civil servants in Gaza, which the PA refuses to consensus’ in June 2015.