BETWEEN STAGNATION AND RENOVATION: THE ARAB SYSTEM IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE IRAQ WAR *By Elie Podeh This article explores the impact of the U.S. occupation of Iraq on the Arab system. It advances three arguments: First, that the system has not yet extricated itself from the political paralysis that characterized it in the pre-war period. Second, that in spite of its political fragmentation the system underwent some modest structural changes that may herald significant developments in the long run. And, finally, that the Arab world is witnessing an expansion of a reformist discourse and the introduction of certain liberal measures that may eventually bring about some political changes. Consequently, it can be fairly assessed that though the Arab world stands between stagnation and renovation, there are some modest signs indicating that renovation of the "Arab house" has already begun. INTRODUCTION Patrick Seale composed a eulogy for the Arab On March 4, 2003, Muslims celebrated the State system shortly after the war.2 beginning of year 1424, according to the hijri Since the end of the war, a serious Arab calendar. But for Arab Muslims there was no dialogue concerning internal and regional reason to celebrate. Three days earlier, the reforms ensued on the governmental and Arab summit in Cairo failed to prevent -- or societal levels. This dialogue affected the delay -- the U.S.-led attack against Iraq, May 2004 Tunis Arab summit declaration, which began at the end of that month, and led which included references to future reforms. to its occupation by the United States. By the These pledges were reiterated in the March end of 2003, an interim Iraqi council, under 2005 Algiers manifesto, a summit celebrating American supervision, was ruling Iraq. In one the Arab League's sixtieth anniversary. For of his last articles in Arabic, the late Edward some, this dialogue and specific liberalization Said argued that what occurred in Iraq was no measures (such as the elections in Iraq, less than a "major catastrophe" (karitha Palestine and Lebanon, the referendum on the kabira). The collective Arab nation, he change in Egyptian constitution, and the exclaimed, powerlessly and helplessly municipal elections in Saudi Arabia) were confronted the American invasion, which he indications of a profound change in the Arab described as a hamla 1-- a term used to depict world.3 Others downplayed the importance of Napoleon Bonaprte's invasion of Egypt in these changes, which, in their opinion, 1798. In the same vein, veteran journalist occurred mainly in areas under colonial rule (Iraq and Palestine). Shibley Telhami even Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 9, No. 3 (September 2005) 52 Between Stagnation and Renovation suggested that the war constituted a setback Another four years elapsed before another to Arab reforms.4 Arab statements in favor of summit convened, this time as a response to reforms, therefore, were viewed by some as the outbreak of the Palestinian al-Aqsa mere rhetoric, reminiscent of previous hollow intifada, in October 2000. Institutionally, the Arab decisions, primarily emanating from most important decision then was to hold Western pressure on Arab rulers to initiate regular annual summits to "enhance the joint reforms. Such a view, in essence, perceived Arab endeavor in all fields, particularly the the Arab reaction as a new form of tanzimat - economic."7 Consequently, summits were the reforms taken by the Ottoman Empire in held in Amman (March 2001), Beirut (March the nineteenth century, mainly as a response 2002), Sharm al-Sheikh (March 2003), Tunis to Western pressure to modernize the empire. (May 2004) and Algiers (March 2005). In light of these conflicting assessments, A second problem that divided and this article sets to explore the impact of the weakened the Arab system throughout the Iraq war on the Arab system. 5 It advances 1990s was the Iraqi question. In the aftermath three arguments: First, that the system has not of the 1991 war, Iraq was ostracized from the yet extricated itself from the political League. Being a major player in the Arab paralysis that characterized it in the pre-war system, its absence not only weakened the period. Second, that the system underwent system's overall strength, but also led to its some modest structural changes that may fragmentation. Several states, such as Egypt, herald significant developments in the long Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon, benefited run. And, finally, that the Arab world is economically from the sanctions and the witnessing an expansion of a reformist consequent Oil for Food agreement signed discourse and the introduction of certain between the U.N. and Iraq on May 20, 1996.8 liberal measures that may indicate that some Yet, this development did not lead to major winds of change are blowing. changes in the Arab arena. Both Egypt and Jordan were reluctant to endanger their BACKGROUND: THE ARAB SYSTEM amicable relations with their U.S. ally. Egypt IN THE NEW MILLENNIUM also feared that Iraq's return as a full player The Arab system entered the new might threaten its leading role in the system. millennium with a host of problems among Iraq's pariah status also served well the which its institutional breakdown was the interests of the Gulf countries, which most serious one. During the 1990s, only one remained apprehensive of its inspirations in Arab summit was convened since the this area. disastrous Cairo summit of August 1990, The gradual erosion of the Western which revealed the extent to which Iraq's sanctions against Iraq eventually led to its re- invasion and occupation of Kuwait divided admission into the League in October 2000 the Arab world. The 1996 Cairo summit was and its presence at the March 2002 Beirut an unconvincing show of Arab solidarity in summit. The formal pretext for its return was the face of the election of the right-wing the need to display Arab solidarity with the candidate, Benjamin Netanyahu, as Israeli intifada, which broke out in September Prime Minister, following the assassination 2000.9 This step notwithstanding, Iraq's of Yitzhak Rabin in November 1995.6 relations with the Gulf Cooperation Council Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 9, No. 3 (September 2005) 53 Elie Podeh (GCC) countries remained sour. Moreover, and competed. On the one hand, being close most of the GCC states still supported the allies of the United States, they shared similar war against Saddam in 2003. interests in the Arab world. At the same time, The third Arab problem in the pre-war both struggled for leadership of the Arab period was the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. system. This was reflected in their attempts to Outwardly, the Arab countries displayed offer their good offices to the United States in solidarity with the Palestinian struggle during both the Iraqi and Palestinian "files." Thus, the outbreak of the al-Aqsa intifada. This for example, the Abdallah initiative was solidarity was vividly demonstrated in the published in February 2002, and Saudi final statement of the Arab summit in Cairo Arabia worked assiduously to turn it into an in October.10 In reality, however, the Arab peace plan. It was likely not a destabilizing effect of the Palestinian uprising coincidence that President Mubarak did not threatened to spill over to neighboring Arab attend the Beirut summit, which endorsed a regimes, which naturally became more modified Saudi initiative. Three months later, concerned with their internal security. The in June 2002, when the Israeli-Palestinian explosive nature of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict reached another impasse, Mubarak conflict brought about Egyptian and Saudi hosted a mini-international summit in Sharm mediation attempts. The most significant was al-Sheikh. 12 Undoubtedly, the meeting should Saudi Crown Prince Abdallah's initiative, be seen as an Egyptian attempt to compensate which was made public in February 2002, for its failure in the Beirut summit. Since the and eventually endorsed with modifications Saudis did not want to antagonize the United by the Arab summit in Beirut in March.11 States, they fully cooperated with the However, Palestinian terror attacks in Israel Egyptian move. and the latter's hard-line retaliatory policy Another feature of the inter-Arab pre-war only served to strengthen the Israeli- system was Syria's isolation and its Palestinian impasse. Even the inauguration in consequent declining regional influence. At April 2003 of U.S. President Bush's Road the end of the 1990s, hostility and mistrust Map -- with general Arab and Israeli blessing characterized its relations with Egypt, Jordan, -- did not bring about the expected and the Palestinians. In addition, Syrian- rapprochement. Thus, when U.S. forces Turkish relations were on the verge of entered Iraq, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict confrontation and the Israeli- Syrian peace was still festering. Much of Arab public talks reached a deadlock. Only Iran remained opinion viewed Iraq, like the Palestinian a half-hearted regional ally, while Syria's issue, as a modern manifestation of Western economic relations with Iraq -- its formidable colonialism. rival in the Fertile Crescent -- improved as a In terms of regional political dynamics in result of the sanctions imposed on the latter the pre-war period, several features were (see above).13 After almost thirty years in particularly noteworthy in the Arab system. power, President Hafiz al-Asad's death in First, as explained above, Iraq was largely June 2000 further weakened Syria's regional marginalized as a result of the sanctions standing. Though the process of nominating imposed on it -- a development that left his son to presidency went rather smoothly, it Egypt and Saudi Arabia as the only key Arab was clear that the inexperienced young players. These two countries both cooperated Bashar would have to focus on the domestic 54 Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol.