Eugenio Dacrema Over the last eight years the Syrian conflict has REBUILDING SYRIA is a research fellow for the MENA developed into one of the worst humanitarian tragedies Centre at ISPI and a PhD student REBUILDING SYRIA at the University of Trento. of modern times. More than half a million victims, 5 million refugees abroad and 6 million internally The Middle East’s Next Power Game? Founded in 1934, ISPI is displaced: the figures only capture part of Syria’s an independent think tank Valeria Talbot committed to the study of is a senior research fellow and joint catastrophe. In addition, there is the less quantifiable head in charge of Middle East international political and damage to the country’s social fabric. economic dynamics. Studies of ISPI’s Middle East Against this dramatic backdrop, this ISPI Report aims edited by Eugenio Dacrema and Valeria Talbot and North Africa Centre. It is the only Italian Institute to provide some answers to a few crucial questions: introduction by Paolo Magri – and one of the very few in how can a country whose society has gone through such Europe – to combine research traumas and destruction reimagine itself and its future? activities with a significant What conditions would allow those Syrians who were commitment to training, events, forced to leave their homes to return? And what are the and global risk analysis for regional and international dynamics and interests that will companies and institutions. shape Syria’s future? The Report provides the reader with ISPI favours an interdisciplinary key tools to understand where Syria is headed and what and policy-oriented approach made possible by a research can be done to avoid the worst scenarios. team of over 50 analysts and an international network of 70 universities, think tanks, and research centres. In the ranking issued by the University of Pennsylvania, ISPI placed first worldwide as the “Think Tank to Watch in 2019”. euro 12,00 Rebuilding Syria The Middle East’s Next Power Game? edited by Eugenio Dacrema and Valeria Talbot © 2019 Ledizioni LediPublishing Via Alamanni, 11 – 20141 Milano – Italy www.ledizioni.it [email protected] Rebuilding Syria: The Middle East’s Next Power Game? Edited by Eugenio Dacrema and Valeria Talbot First edition: September 2019 The opinions expressed herein are strictly personal and do not necessarily reflect the position of ISPI. Print ISBN 9788855260589 ePub ISBN 9788855260596 Pdf ISBN 9788855260602 DOI 10.14672/55260589 ISPI. Via Clerici, 5 20121, Milan www.ispionline.it Catalogue and reprints information: www.ledizioni.it Table of Contents Introduction....................................................................... 7 Paolo Magri 1. Syria in the New Middle East: The Fate of a War-Torn Country...................................... 13 Eugenio Dacrema 2. Beyond Physical Reconstruction: Planning a Stable and Prosperous Post-War Syria........................................ 35 Joseph Daher 3. Geo-Politics of Reconstruction: Who Will Rebuild Syria and Pay for It?........................... 59 Julien Barnes-Dacey 4. Turkey in Syria: Role, Interests and Challenges........................................ 75 Valeria Talbot 5. Syria’s Reconstruction: Risks and Benefits for Lebanon and Jordan..................................... 95 Bachar El-Halabi 6. Syrians Abroad: The Future of Refugees and Their Return Home................................................. 117 Kholoud Mansour Policy Recommendations for the EU.................................. 137 The Authors........................................................................ 145 Introduction Over the last eight years the Syrian conflict has developed into one of the worst humanitarian tragedies of modern times. More than half a million victims, 5 million refugees abroad and 6 million internally displaced: the figures only capture part of Syria’s catastrophe. In addition, there is all the less quantifiable damage to the country’s social fabric. For almost a decade entire generations have been partly or wholly deprived of good-qual- ity education, and many of the country’s more educated young people have moved away; those who remain have gone through the horrors of exacerbated polarisation and sectarianism, growing poverty and ruthless violence, while most Syrian ref- ugees abroad have had to endure dramatic living conditions for many years, along with growing intolerance from the host communities. Against this backdrop, the aim of this Report is not to de- scribe how the old Syria could be restored. Instead, it examines the country’s evolution since 2011 and explores the paths it might take in future when the conflict ends. The Report tries to answer a few crucial questions: How can a country whose so- ciety has gone through such trauma and destruction reimagine itself and its future? What conditions would allow the return of those Syrians who were forced to leave their homes? What are the regional and international dynamics that will shape Syria’s future? What are the roles and interests of external players? As Eugenio Dacrema explains in the Report’s first chapter, recognising the damage to Syria’s social fabric caused by this 8 Rebuilding Syria: The Middle East’s Next Power Game? conflict raises one essential question from the start: what does “reconstruction” mean in the Syrian context? The very word “reconstruction” makes us think about a process meant to bring a situation back to a previous, more desirable state. In the case of Syria, we are invited to consider a process aimed at bringing the country back to its pre-war situation. In fact, most of the cost estimates by international institutions such as the World Bank and the UN are predicated on this idea: how much would it cost to rebuild Syria as it was in 2010? However, such an approach can be misleading, especially for a country that has been going through a ferocious eight-year civil war, for civil wars of such ferocity and length have throughout history had profound effects on society. They trigger huge transformations that deeply affect the post-war situation; and the Syrian conflict is no exception. The very fact that the Syrian regime has man- aged to remain in power almost intact should be carefully pon- dered. Although the political structure of the Syrian state has not changed, everything else has. Dacrema describes the deep changes which have occurred throughout the region with the emergence of a new political rift between those governments (Turkey and Qatar) which supported the popular uprisings of the Arab Spring (especially their Islamist components), and others (Saudi Arabia and the UAE) that have been struggling to defend the status quo. This new political divide cuts across the older one between Iran and Saudi Arabia, creating new alliances and tensions across the Middle East. Furthermore, the partial eclipse of US influence in the region has opened a vacuum that has been occupied by new international actors such as Russia. These changes at regional and international level have had profound effects on the course of the Syrian conflict: by prolong- ing and exacerbating it, they have been key factors in determin- ing the level of human and physical destruction. Joseph Daher’s chapter provides a detailed description of the damage caused by conflict. It narrates the measures taken to date by the regime and its allies and explains the plans and estimates prepared by na- tional and international organisations for Syria’s reconstruction. Introduction 9 Daher also describes the changes in the Syrian domestic econo- my during the conflict, as new powerbrokers were thrown up by the war economy and powerful new businessmen and warlords came to the fore alongside the dominant tycoons of the pre-war period such as Assad’s cousin Rami Makhlouf. In this context, a crucial question should be raised: who is going to foot the bill for the country’s reconstruction? The World Bank has estimated the damage at $200bn, while the UN Economic and Social Commission for West Asia (ESCWA) forecasts that the total cost of restoring the country to its 2010 condition will be almost $400bn. These are huge figures, and it is hard to imagine such resources being found quickly or easi- ly; but developments on the ground are already raising urgent questions about how Syria is to be rebuilt, and who will pay. To tackle such questions Julien Barnes-Dacey explores the power politics that have developed around Syrian reconstruc- tion. For instance, while the Assad regime has shown consider- able resilience and seems likely to remain in power for the fore- seeable future it lacks the means to rebuild the country on its own. Its main allies, Russia and Iran, are not endowed with the kind of financial resources needed for a significant contribu- tion; and indeed, they have already started jockeying for posi- tion to profit as much as possible from reconstruction contracts and from exploiting the country’s limited natural resources. As for the West, the EU and US have imposed sanctions designed to hobble Assad’s war machine and obstruct any attempts at reconstruction without a political resolution involving some sort of power-sharing, together with guarantees for the opposi- tion and the refugees abroad. Until now, sanctions have proved effective in blocking attempts to involve European money or European companies in the reconstruction plans. They have also slowed the attempted rapprochement between the Syrian regime and the UAE/Saudi Arabian axis (which since the end of 2018 has significantly altered its approach towards Syria) and dissuaded those countries from offering more towards recon- struction. With Western powers and wealthy Arab states out 10 Rebuilding Syria: The Middle East’s Next Power Game? of the picture – at least for the moment – Damascus has been looking elsewhere for support, for example to friendly emerging powers such as China. Despite Assad’s efforts to court Beijing, though, the Chinese authorities have so far given only cautious and general undertakings. Besides, neighbouring countries such as Jordan and Lebanon have already begun to position themselves to benefit from the process.