Living with changing climate Impact, vulnerability and adaptation challenges in Indian Sundarbans Centre for Science and Environment Living with changing climate Impact, vulnerability and adaptation challenges in Indian Sundarbans Centre for Science and Environment Research direction Chandra Bhushan Lead researcher and writer Aditya Ghosh Editor Jyotirmoy Chaudhuri Design and layout Kirpal Singh and Surender Singh Production Rakesh Shrivastava and Gundhar Das Cover Photo Sayantan Bera We are grateful to DanChurch Aid, Church of Sweden, Swedish International Development Agency (SIDA) and Evangelischer Entwicklungsdienst e.V (EED) for their support. Acknowledgments: We are also grateful to these people for their help and support in this project: Kakoli Banerjee, Kunal Mondal, Satadru Biswas, Anurag Danda, Angshuman Das, Debal Roy, Subhash Acharya, Rabindranath Bhattacharya, Subhendu Bandyopadhyay, S P Gon Chowdhury, Tushar Kanjilal, Subhankar Goldar, Navonil Das, Chiranjib Chakrabarty and Kanailal Sarkar © 2012 Centre for Science and Environment Material from this publication can be used, but with acknowledgement. Prepared by: Centre for Science and Environment 41 Tughlakabad Institutional Area New Delhi – 110 062, India Ph: 91-11-2995 6110, 2995 5124, 2995 6394, 2995 6499 Fax: 91-11-2995 5879, 2995 0870 Email: [email protected] Website: www.cseindia.org Contents 1. Introduction ..........................................................................................................................................................................1 What is adaptation? .......................................................................................................................................................................1 Challenging state apathy to adaptation..........................................................................................................................................3 Sundarbans: one of the most threatened in India...........................................................................................................................4 2. The Indian Sundarbans ........................................................................................................................................................7 A rich, and threatened, biodiversity................................................................................................................................................9 Growing poulation: how much more can the region hold?...........................................................................................................13 Economy: development deprived..................................................................................................................................................14 Administering the Sundarbans......................................................................................................................................................18 3. Impacts: Aila and the others .............................................................................................................................................21 Temperature: warmer times are coming .......................................................................................................................................22 Sea level: rising inexorably ...........................................................................................................................................................23 Rainfall: changing intensity ..........................................................................................................................................................26 Cyclones: growing fury .................................................................................................................................................................26 The way forward...........................................................................................................................................................................27 4. Land: the bone of contention............................................................................................................................................29 Erosion and accretion: the net loss is more...................................................................................................................................29 Embankments: a management failure? ........................................................................................................................................32 Salinity: slow poison ....................................................................................................................................................................35 Land use: changing contours spell trouble....................................................................................................................................36 Needed: a new land policy............................................................................................................................................................39 5. Survival archipelago ..........................................................................................................................................................41 Subsistence living .........................................................................................................................................................................42 Agriculture: on the wane ..............................................................................................................................................................43 Fishing: drying up .........................................................................................................................................................................46 Non-timber forest produce............................................................................................................................................................51 6. Development deficit ..........................................................................................................................................................54 Power: connecting, but in fits and starts ......................................................................................................................................55 Public health: at its very basic ......................................................................................................................................................61 Education: leading nowhere .........................................................................................................................................................64 Disaster management: still learning .............................................................................................................................................66 Institutional banking: neglected ...................................................................................................................................................69 Rural employment: not guaranteed ..............................................................................................................................................71 iii LIVING WITH CHANGING CLIMATE 7. Migrating to survive ..........................................................................................................................................................76 Who migrates? .............................................................................................................................................................................77 Remittances rule...........................................................................................................................................................................80 Enabling options, or escalating risks?...........................................................................................................................................80 Diminishing options......................................................................................................................................................................81 8. An agenda for action .........................................................................................................................................................83 Adaptation challenges in Sundarbans...........................................................................................................................................84 Focusing attention on adaptation.................................................................................................................................................86 Adaptation governance: Institutions hold the key ........................................................................................................................88 Adaptation lessons from Sundarbans ...........................................................................................................................................89 Develop and adapt........................................................................................................................................................................89 Adaptation policy and governance: Links mustn’t break ..............................................................................................................91 Who pays for adaptation?