JAPAN INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AGENCY (JICA) VIETNAM RAILWAYS (VR) STUDY FOR THE FORMULATION OF HIGH SPEED RAILWAY PROJECTS ON HANOI – VINH AND HO CHI MINH – NHA TRANG SECTION FINAL REPORT SUMMARY June 2013 ALMEC CORPORATION JAPAN INTERNATIONAL CONSULTANTS FOR TRANSPORTATION CO., LTD. ORIENTAL CONSULTANTS CO., LTD. NIPPON KOEI CO., LTD. JAPAN TRANSPORTATION CONSULTANTS, INC. EI JR 13-178 Exchange rate used in the Report USD 1 = JPY 78 = VND 21,000 (Based on rate on November 2011) PREFACE In response to the request from the Government of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam, the Government of Japan decided to conduct the Study for the Formulation of High Speed Railway Projects on Hanoi – Vinh and Ho Chi Minh – Nha Trang Section and entrusted the program to the Japan International cooperation Agency (JICA). JICA dispatched a team to Vietnam between April 2011 and June 2013, which was headed by Mr. IWATA Shizuo of ALMEC Corporation and consisted of ALMEC Corporation, Japan International Consultants for Transportation Co., Ltd., Oriental Consultants Co., Ltd., Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. and Japan Transportation Consultants, Inc. In the cooperation with the Vietnamese Counterpart Team including the Ministry of Transport and Vietnam Railways, the JICA Study Team conducted the study which includes traffic demand analysis, natural and socio-economic conditions, alignment planning, consideration of various options including the upgrading of existing railway, technical standards for high speed railway, implementation schedule and institutions, and human resource development. It also held a series of discussions with the relevant officials of the Government of Vietnam. Upon returning to Japan, the Team duly finalized the study and delivered this report in June 2013. Reflecting on the history of railway development in Japan, it is noted that Japan has indeed a great deal of experience in the planning, construction, operation, etc., and it is deemed that such experiences will greatly contribute to the railway development in Vietnam. JICA is willing to provide further cooperation to Vietnam to achieve sustainable development of railway sector and to enhance friendly relationship between the two countries. It is hoped that this report will contribute to the sustainable development of transport system in Vietnam and to the enhancement of friendly relations between the two countries. Finally, I wish to express my sincere appreciation to the officials of the Government of Vietnam for their close cooperation. June 2013 Kazuki Miura Director, Economic Infrastructure Department Japan International Cooperation Agency TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION 2 REVIEW OF CURRENT SITUAION AND FUTURE TRANSPORTATION DEVELOPMENT DIRECTION FOR NORTH – SOUTH CORRIDOR 3 CONSTRAINTS AND OPPORTUNITIES IN DEVELOPMENT OF THE EXISTING NORTH- SOUTH RAILWAY 4 DEVELOPMENT DIRECTIONS FOR NORTH-SOUTH RAILWAY 5 ANALYSIS AND SELECTION OF HSR SYSTEM AND TECHNOLOGY 6 TRAFFIC DEMAND ANALYSIS FOR TWO PRIORITY SECTIONS 7 ALIGNMENT PLANNING 8 STATION AND STATION AREA PLANNING 9 COST ESTIMATION 10 ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS 11 FUNDING OPTIONS 12 OPERATION MANAGEMENT AND HUMAN RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT 13 INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT 14 ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL CONSIDERATIONS 15 IMPLEMENTATION PLAN 16 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENTATIONS i LIST OF TABLES Table 1.1 Alternative Scenarios Discussed in National Assembly 2010 ..................................... 1-7 Table 1.2 Options for Improvement of Existing Railway ............................................................. 1-7 Table 2.1 Development Indicators for Provinces along North – South Corridor ......................... 2-3 Table 2.2 Road and Railway on the North-South Corridor ......................................................... 2-4 Table 2.3 Airport on the North-South Corridor ............................................................................ 2-5 Table 2.4 Seaport on the North-South Corridor .......................................................................... 2-5 Table 2.5 Forecast Increase in Passenger and Freight Traffic ................................................... 2-6 Table 2.6 Estimated Traffic Demand along North South Corridor (Baseline Scenario) 2030 ..... 2-9 Table 2.7 Transport Development Orientation up to 2020 ........................................................ 2-11 Table 3.1 Outline of Hai Van Pass, Khe Net Pass, Hoa Duyet – Thanh Luyen Sections ........... 3-1 Table 3.2 Summary of Existing Railway ..................................................................................... 3-2 Table 3.3 Results of Improvement Options of Existing Railway ................................................. 3-4 Table 4.1 Future Traffic Demand (no. of trains) in the North-South Corridor in 2030 ................. 4-2 Table 5.1 Comparison of Basic HSR Technology ....................................................................... 5-1 Table 5.2 Technical Standards of Rolling Stocks for Vietnam HSR ............................................ 5-6 Table 5.3 Technical Standards for HSR in Vietnam (draft) ........................................................ 5-8 Table 6.1 Population and Urbanization Projection by Region .................................................... 6-1 Table 6.2 Projected GRDP by Region ........................................................................................ 6-1 Table 6.3 Demand Analysis Result by Mode .............................................................................. 6-3 Table 6.4 Preconditions for Demand Analysis Result by Mode .................................................. 6-3 Table 7.1 Stations in North Priority Section ................................................................................ 7-4 Table 7.2 Structures in North Priority Section ............................................................................. 7-4 Table 7.3 Station Plan for North Priority Section......................................................................... 7-5 Table 7.4 Stations in South Priority Section ................................................................................ 7-8 Table 7.5 Structures in South Priority Section ............................................................................ 7-8 Table 7.6 Station Plan for South Priority Section ........................................................................ 7-9 Table 8.1 Development Concept for Station and Station Area Planning .................................... 8-2 Table 9.1 Project Cost for North and South Priority Sections ..................................................... 9-2 Table 10.1 Results of Economic Analysis (2030 Opening Case) ............................................... 10-2 Table 10.2 Results of Economic Analysis (2035 Opening Case) ............................................... 10-2 Table 10.3 Results of Financial Analysis (2030 Opening Case) ................................................. 10-3 Table 10.4 Results of Financial Analysis (2035 Opening Case) ................................................. 10-3 Table 11.1 Allocation of Risks ..................................................................................................... 11-2 Table 11.2 Hanoi – Vinh Section Estimated Revenue (with revenue guarantee) ....................... 11-5 Table 11.3 HCMC – Nha Trang Section Estimated Revenue (with revenue guarantee) ........... 11-6 Table 14.1 Initial Set of Alternatives ............................................................................................ 14-2 Table 14.2 Result of Comparative Analysis ................................................................................ 14-3 Table 14.3 Provisional Scoped Items ......................................................................................... 14-3 Table 14.4 Outline of Stakeholders’ Meetings ............................................................................ 14-5 Table 14.5 Provisional Estimation of Land Acquisition Impacts .................................................. 14-6 Table 14.6 Procedure for Compensation at Full Replacement Cost .......................................... 14-6 Table 15.1 Outline of Candidate Initial Sections ......................................................................... 15-5 Table 15.2 Approximate Project Costs for Candidate Initial Sections (US$ million) ................... 15-6 Table 15.3 Passenger Demand between Hanoi and Ha Nam .................................................... 15-6 Table 15.4 Estimate of Long Thanh Airport Traffic Demand, 2030 ............................................. 15-7 ii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1 Overall Workflow of the Study .................................................................................... 1-2 Figure 1.2 Study Organization ...................................................................................................... 1-3 Figure 1.3 Study Area and Locations of North-South Railways ................................................... 1-5 Figure 2.1 Proportion of Reported Natural Disasters in Vietnam (1989-2010) ............................ 2-2 Figure 2.2 Distribution of Environmentally Sensitive Area ........................................................... 2-2 Figure 2.3 Passenger Traffic Demand Distribution, 2010 and 2030 ............................................ 2-7 Figure 2.4 Freight Traffic Demand Distribution, 2010 and 2030 .................................................. 2-7 Figure 2.5 Passenger Traffic Demand by Mode along North-South Coastal Corridor,