Draft Final Report Assessment of Market Conditions for Outdoor Recreation Facilities and Services at Lake Berryessa Napa County, California U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation Napa, California May 2014 Mission Statements The mission of the Department of the Interior is to protect and provide access to our Nation’s natural and cultural heritage and honor our trust responsibilities to Indian Tribes and our commitments to island communities. The mission of the Bureau of Reclamation is to manage, develop, and protect water and related resources in an environmentally and economically sound manner in the interest of the American public. Draft Assessment of Market Conditions for Outdoor Recreation Facilities and Services Draft Final Report Prepared by United States Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation Mid-Pacific Region Central California Area Office Draft U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation Napa, California May 2014 This page left blank intentionally. Draft Executive Summary Executive Summary ES.1 Introduction Lake Berryessa is part of a federally-owned water project owned by the Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation). The reservoir is in Napa County, which is 70 miles northeast of San Francisco, 65 miles west of Sacramento, and approximately 20 miles from the center of Napa Valley’s wine country. In the spring of 2013, Reclamation began planning for the future long-term management of the concession areas by commercial businesses as called for in the 2005 Visitor Services Plan (VSP) and 2006 Record of Decision (ROD), with the goal of providing a diverse range of sustainable, short-term recreation opportunities for the public in the seven concession areas. To achieve a successful solicitation and economically sound business ventures, these recreation services will be designed using a combined approach consisting of a comprehensive market assessment, conceptual site planning and financial feasibility evaluation along with infrastructure design and environmental analyses. ES.2 Purpose and Need The purpose of this Market Assessment is to evaluate the potential market conditions to determine the feasibility of providing new public use facilities and services at five separate and distinct recreation areas at Lake Berryessa (Steele Canyon, Spanish Flat, Berryessa Point, Monticello Shores, and Putah Canyon). There is a need to determine the number of concessions necessary to meet public needs, types of facilities and services to be provided, financial feasibility of the concession(s),Draft appropriate location(s) for commercial activities, and the appropriate quantity of facilities and services that will offer diverse recreation opportunities to the public (Reclamation, 2002). ES.3 Methodology for Preparation of the Market Assessment A database (i.e., quantitative) and non-database approach (i.e., qualitative) methodology was used to prepare this Market Assessment. Qualitative assessment is the non-database methodology that relies on interviews, expert opinion, archival records, existing information and observations. Professional judgment is considered useful for long-term ES-1 DRAFT FINAL – May 2014 Lake Berryessa Concession Concept Plans Market Assessment Report estimations where there are many factors that may influence future actions. Quantitative assessment (i.e., collecting and analyzing data/information) is the database methodology that was used. This methodology consists of collecting and analyzing a sufficient amount of recreation demand, trend, demographic, and population information. The information is used to estimate what types of facilities and services would be provided in the future to accommodate a particular type of activity and user. The recommended facilities and services are those that could satisfy future demand predictions and potentially allow a concessionaire an opportunity to make a reasonable profit. ES.4 Project Limitations There are several factors that will likely affect the level of accuracy and precision of the recommendations regarding the types, quantities and locations of new facilities and services at Lake Berryessa. Following are the main factors: • The Market Assessment is based upon an analysis of existing information and data available from Reclamation, campground and marina operators, county and state plans and websites, and other readily available public documents. • There was no original data collection completed using community or market area surveys, focus groups, interviews, or other traditional public input/measurement tools. • Historical Lake Berryessa recreation visitation data and reports showing past user satisfaction levels, trends, seasonal use patterns, or profiles of visitors are minimal. • The major transformation over the past 10 years at Lake Berryessa in the type, amount, availability of traditional recreation opportunities, and the cessation of several marinas disrupts the ability to forecast the future demandDraft and preference for certain facilities and services. ES.5 Guidance Documents Affecting Lake Berryessa Recreation and Commercial Services Management Recreation and land management activities at Lake Berryessa are governed by a variety of laws, internal policies, directives and standards, planning and guidance documents, and studies. As much as possible, this Market Assessment must be consistent with the following: • Solano Project Authorization and Public Law 93-493. ES-2 DRAFT FINAL – May 2014 Executive Summary • 1959 Public Use Plan. • 1992 Reservoir Area Management Plan for Lake Berryessa and 1993 Record of Decision. • 2005 Visitor Services Plan and 2006 Record of Decision. • Reclamation Directives and Standard, and Guidelines. ES.6 Recreation Demand The majority of people that visit Lake Berryessa reside in the San Francisco and Sacramento areas. About 75 percent of the historical visitors to the lake were from the San Francisco Bay Area and approximately 20 percent were from the Sacramento area (Fletcher et al, 1997). The market area for this Market Assessment encompasses an area within a100- mile radius of Lake Berryessa. The market area Recreation demand is the includes the 9 counties that make up the Bay estimated number of people Area (i.e., Santa Clara, Alameda, Contra Costa, who are projected to participate in a particular Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, recreation opportunity at Solano, and Sonoma) and an additional16 some predetermined future representative counties that are within the time and location (Haas, et market area and a reasonable driving distance al, 2007). from the lake (i.e., Amador, Butte, Calaveras, Colusa, El Dorado, Glenn, Lake, Mendocino, Nevada, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Sutter, Yolo, and Yuba). To understand what future facilities and services are appropriate and necessary at Lake Berryessa, it is necessary to collect an appropriate level of data and information about the recreation environment from within market area as well as outside the market area (e.g., national and the rest of the State of California). ES.7 Qualitative ConsiderationsDraft Recreation-related trends can influence future demand for creation of new or different types of public outdoor recreation opportunities. A lack of understanding of current and anticipated water-related recreation use trends can hamper the ability to effectively manage recreation. Following are examples of key trends related to participation levels that could influence future water recreation management and demand. ES.7.1 Urban Recreation Activities As society becomes more urbanized, travel patterns (including length of stay, repeat visitation, and distance traveled) will be increasingly dependent on the quality of the recreation opportunities and the recreation settings provided (Tarrant, et al, 1999). Urban residents typically have fewer outdoor recreation ES-3 DRAFT FINAL – May 2014 Lake Berryessa Concession Concept Plans Market Assessment Report opportunities than rural residents, which results in increased demand for outdoor recreation opportunities and activities closer to urban areas. Recreation Market Trends Markets for outdoor activities are changing as new forms of participation are discovered, as the backgrounds, perspectives, and tastes of recreationists change, and as constraints and opportunities shift. In that these changes are in part determined by the opportunities that are available, public land management policies will be under increased scrutiny to determine how well they meet the needs of Americans across all social strata, while at the same time providing private section business opportunities (Cordell et al, 1999). Recreation Activity Trends Recreation use patterns continue to evolve. Basic recreation activities are generally constant, but trends occur within the activity. In boating, there are two trends where large craft are increasing faster than small craft, and participation in non-motorized boating is increasing at a faster rate than motorized. Other trends involve the provision of high-end camping, recreation- oriented urban redevelopment and development centers, and increased interest in rural communities (Delta Protection Commission, 2012). Water-Based Recreation Activities Projections for many water-based activities, such as visiting beaches or water areas, canoeing, motorboating, non-pool swimming, and rafting, show increases over projected population growth through the year 2050 (Bowker, et al. 1999). Water-Based Facilities A proliferation since 1990 of personal