Modelling Natural Resource Responses to Climate Change (MONARCH) A Local Approach Development of a conceptual and methodological framework for universal application Edited by P.M. Berry, P.A. Harrison T.P. Dawson and C.A. Walmsley ii This report should be referenced as: Berry, P.M., Harrison, P.A., Dawson, T.P. and Walmsley, C.A. (Eds.) (2005). Modelling Natural Resource Responses to Climate Change (MONARCH): A Local Approach. UKCIP Technical Report, Oxford. iii CONTENTS Executive summary..................................................................................................................... vii Chapters: 1. Introduction, project aims and methods .................................................................................1 P.M Berry, P.A. Harrison, J.E. Hossell and G.J. Masters 1.1 Introduction................................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Aims............................................................................................................................................ 2 1.3 Methods...................................................................................................................................... 2 1.4 Project partners ........................................................................................................................... 8 1.5 References................................................................................................................................... 9 2. Bioclimatic classification and case study selection..............................................................13 J.E. Hossell, A.E. Riding and P.A. Harrison Summary........................................................................................................................................... 13 2.1 Introduction............................................................................................................................... 13 2.2 Bioclimatic classification method............................................................................................. 14 2.3 Bioclimatic classification results.............................................................................................. 14 2.4 Conservation characterisation................................................................................................... 19 2.5 Identification of climatically sensitive areas............................................................................. 22 2.6 Selected case study areas .......................................................................................................... 27 2.7 Selection of habitats and species............................................................................................... 27 2.8 Bioclimatic classification of the case study areas..................................................................... 28 2.9 Uncertainty in future climate change projections ..................................................................... 30 2.10 Discussion and conclusions ...................................................................................................... 36 2.11 References................................................................................................................................. 36 Chapter 2 Annex............................................................................................................................... 37 3. Species distribution and dispersal modelling ....................................................................... 43 P.A. Harrison, R.G. Pearson, T.P. Dawson, S. Freeman, J.E. Hossell, H. Lyons, P. Scholefield and P.M. Berry Summary........................................................................................................................................... 43 3.1 Introduction............................................................................................................................... 43 3.2 SPECIES model........................................................................................................................ 44 3.3 Downscaled SPECIES model ................................................................................................... 46 3.4 Land cover change scenarios .................................................................................................... 49 3.5 Dispersal model ........................................................................................................................ 52 3.6 Discussion and conclusions ...................................................................................................... 56 3.6 References................................................................................................................................. 59 Chapter 3 Annex............................................................................................................................... 63 iv 4. Implications for the Composition of Species Communities.................................................68 G. Masters and N. Ward Summary........................................................................................................................................... 68 4.1 Introduction............................................................................................................................... 68 4.2 The species Arriver and Leaver conceptual models ................................................................. 68 4.3 The application of the Arriver and Leaver conceptual models ................................................ 72 4.4 Discussion................................................................................................................................. 73 4.5 References................................................................................................................................. 73 5. Impacts on coastal environments..........................................................................................74 G.E. Austin and M.M. Rehfisch Summary........................................................................................................................................... 74 5.1 Introduction............................................................................................................................... 74 5.2 Methods.................................................................................................................................... 75 5.3 Suffolk coastline case study...................................................................................................... 85 5.4 Discussion and conclusions ...................................................................................................... 96 5.5 References................................................................................................................................. 98 6. Impacts for the Hampshire case study area ........................................................................102 J.E. Hossell, G.E. Austin, P.M. Berry, N. Butt, H.Q.P. Crick, S. Freeman, P.A. Harrison, G.J. Masters, A. Morrison, M.M. Rehfisch, P. Scholefield, N. Ward And I. Wilde Summary......................................................................................................................................... 102 6.1 Introduction............................................................................................................................. 103 6.2 Bioclimatic classification........................................................................................................ 103 6.3 Land cover changes................................................................................................................. 107 6.4 Beech hangers ......................................................................................................................... 110 6.5 Wet heathland......................................................................................................................... 128 6.6 Estuarine waterbirds................................................................................................................ 140 6.7 Discussion and conclusions .................................................................................................... 144 6.8 References............................................................................................................................... 145 7. Impacts for the Central Highlands case study area ............................................................148 P.M. Berry, N. Butt, H.P.Q. Crick, S. Freeman, P.A. Harrison, J.E. Hossell, G. Masters, P. Scholefield and N. Ward Summary......................................................................................................................................... 148 7.1 Introduction............................................................................................................................. 149 7.2 Bioclimatic classification........................................................................................................ 149 7.3 Land cover changes................................................................................................................. 159 7.4 Caledonian pine woodland...................................................................................................... 159 7.5 Montane/upland heath............................................................................................................