WTEC Panel Report on SYSTEMS ENGINEERING FOR CLEAN AND RENEWABLE ENERGY MANUFACTURING IN EUROPE AND ASIA Matthew Realff (Chair) Jian Cao Paul Collopy Wayne Curtis Delcie Durham Ryne P. Raffaelle World Technology Evaluation Center, Inc. 1653 Lititz Pike, #417 Lancaster, PA 17601 WTEC PANEL ON SYSTEMS ENGINEERING FOR CLEAN AND RENEWABLE ENERGY MANUFACTURING Sponsored by the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF). Dr. Matthew Realff (Chair) Dr. Ryne P. Raffaelle Georgia Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Dr. Paul Collopy Dr. Wayne Curtis University of Alabama The Pennsylvania State University Dr. Jian Cao Dr. Delcie Durham Northwestern University University of South Florida Participants in Site Visits Dr. Abhijit Deshmukh Frank Huband Purdue University Senior Vice President and General Counsel Hassan Ali Patricia Foland Advance Contractor VP for International Operations and Project Manager Asmite Damle Guide in India WTEC Mission WTEC provides assessments of international research and development in selected technologies under awards from the National Science Foundation (NSF), and the Office of Naval Research (ONR). Formerly part of Loyola University Maryland, WTEC is now a separate nonprofit research institute. The Deputy Assistant Director for Engineering is NSF Program Director for WTEC. Sponsors interested in international technology assessments or related studies can provide support through NSF or directly through separate grants or GSA task orders to WTEC. WTEC’s mission is to inform U.S. scientists, engineers, and policymakers of global trends in science and technology. WTEC assessments cover basic research, advanced development, and applications. Panels of typically six technical experts conduct WTEC assessments. Panelists are leading authorities in their field, technically active, and knowledgeable about U.S. and foreign research programs. As part of the assessment process, panels visit and carry out extensive discussions with foreign scientists and engineers in their labs abroad. The WTEC staff helps select topics, recruits expert panelists, arranges study visits to foreign laboratories, organizes workshop presentations, and finally, edits and publishes the final reports. Dr. R.D. Shelton, President, is the WTEC point of contact: telephone (717) 299-7130 or email [email protected]. WTEC Panel Report on SYSTEMS ENGINEERING FOR CLEAN AND RENEWABLE ENERGY MANUFACTURING IN EUROPE AND ASIA December 2013 Matthew Realff (Chair) Jian Cao Paul Collopy Wayne Curtis Delcie Durham Ryne Raffaelle This document was sponsored by the National Science Foundation (NSF) under a cooperative agreement (ENG 0844639) with the World Technology Evaluation Center (WTEC). The Government has certain rights in this material. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Government, the authors’ parent institutions, or WTEC. WORLD TECHNOLOGY EVALUATION CENTER, INC. (WTEC) R.D. Shelton, President Frank Huband, Senior Vice President and General Counsel Geoffrey M. Holdridge, Executive Vice President Patricia Foland, Vice President for International Operations and Project Manager Grant Lewison, Advance Contractor Hassan Ali, Advance Contractor ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We at WTEC wish to thank all the panelists for their valuable insights and their dedicated work in conducting this global assessment of systems engineering, and to thank all the site visit hosts for so generously sharing their time, expertise, and facilities with us. For their sponsorship of this important study, our sincere thanks go to the National Science Foundation. R.D. Shelton President, WTEC Copyright 2013 by WTEC. The U.S. Government retains a nonexclusive and nontransferable license to exercise all exclusive rights provided by copyright. A sample of available WTEC reports is on the inside back cover of this report. Table of Contents Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................... xiii Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 1 Background ........................................................................................................................................... 1 Baseline Workshop ................................................................................................................................ 2 Scope of the Study ................................................................................................................................. 2 Prior Work at WTEC ............................................................................................................................. 3 Methodology of the Study ..................................................................................................................... 3 Overview of the Report ......................................................................................................................... 6 Solar Energy and Photovoltaics ...................................................................................................... 9 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 9 Growth the Worldwide PV Industry .................................................................................................... 10 PV Materials Systems.......................................................................................................................... 11 PV Efficiency Improvements .............................................................................................................. 12 PV Reliability ...................................................................................................................................... 13 PV Pricing ........................................................................................................................................... 15 Global Market ...................................................................................................................................... 15 Systems Engineering ........................................................................................................................... 16 Global Understanding of the Issues ..................................................................................................... 21 Biomass-2-Energy .......................................................................................................................... 25 Background ......................................................................................................................................... 25 Biomass as Direct Fuel ........................................................................................................................ 26 Biomass to Syngas ............................................................................................................................... 28 Biomass to Methane (Zeroth Generation Biofuel) .............................................................................. 31 Biomass to Biodiesel and Bioethanol (First Generation Biofuels) ...................................................... 34 Biomass to Advanced Biofuels (Second Generation Biofuels) ........................................................... 37 Conclusions ......................................................................................................................................... 41 Manufacturing ................................................................................................................................ 47 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 47 Challenges of Renewable Energy Manufacturing ............................................................................... 47 U.S. Manufacturing Research Activities in SEEM ............................................................................. 50 European Manufacturing Research ..................................................................................................... 51 Asian Manufacturing Research ........................................................................................................... 57 Conclusions ......................................................................................................................................... 59 Wind, Wave, and Water Current Energy .................................................................................... 61 Wind Energy Physical Principles ........................................................................................................ 61 Wind Energy Interacting Systems ....................................................................................................... 62 Multiscale Design Problem ................................................................................................................. 63 Advanced Wind Turbine Aerodynamics ............................................................................................. 64 Other Wind Turbine Concepts ............................................................................................................. 66 Energy from the Motion of Water ......................................................................................................