Study on Northern peripheral, sparsely populated Regions in the European Union and in Norway Northern Peripheral, Sparsely Populated Regions in the European Union and in Norway Erik Gløersen, Alexandre Dubois, Andrew Copus Carsten Schürmann NORDREGIO 2006 Nordregio Report 2006:2 ISSN 1403-2503 ISBN 91-89332-60-1 © 2006 Nordregio Cover illustrations: - Overlay of 1x1 km grid cell populations and areas within 60 minutes of nearest airport (fig 5.10) - KA Hallden: Iron ore train, Kiruna municipality Nordregio P.O. Box 1658 SE-111 86 Stockholm, Sweden [email protected] www.nordregio.se www.norden.se Nordic Council of Ministers Nordic Council Nordregio Store Strandstraede 18 P.O.Box 3043 P.O.Box 1658 DK-1255 Copenhagen K DK-1021 Copenhagen K SE-11186 Stockholm Phone: +45-33-960 200 Phone: +45-33-960 400 Phone: +46-8-463 54 00 Fax: +45-33-960 202 Fax: +45-33-111870 Fax: +46-8-463 54 01 http://www.norden.org http://www.norden.org http://www.nordregio.se Nordic co-operation takes place among the countries of Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden, as well as the autonomous territories of the Faroe Islands, Greenland and Åland. The Nordic Council is a forum for co-operation between the Nordic parliaments and governments. The Council consists of 87 parliamentarians from the Nordic countries. The Nordic Council takes policy initiatives and monitors Nordic co- operation. Founded in 1952. The Nordic Council of Ministers is a forum of co-operation between the Nordic governments. The Nordic Council of Ministers implements Nordic co-operation. The prime ministers have the overall responsibility. Its activities are co-ordinated by the Nordic ministers for co-operation, the Nordic Committee for co-operation and portfolio ministers. Founded in 1971. Nordregio – Nordic Centre for Spatial Development was established in 1997 by the Nordic Council of Ministers on behalf of the governments of the five Nordic countries and serves as an independent research institute on questions concerning spatial planning and regional development. The institute applies a comparative Nordic and European perspective in its investigations. Contents Preface............................................................................................................................................................................ 1 1. Summary................................................................................................................................................................. 2 2. Introduction......................................................................................................................................................... 21 2.1. European recognition of the structural weaknesses of sparsely populated areas.................................................................................................................. 21 2.2. Three separate handicaps .....................................................................................................................22 2.3. Theoretical accounts of the main disadvantages associated with Sparsity / Peripherality .............................................................................................23 3. Delimitating sparsely populated areas in the European Union ................................................................29 3.1. Delimitation according to NUTS 2 and NUTS 3 average densities.............................................29 3.2. A delimitation approach reflecting the social and economic issues of sparsity ........................34 3.3. Population potentials in Europe...........................................................................................................37 3.4. Identification of sparsely populated areas.........................................................................................39 3.5. Delimitation of the study area .............................................................................................................45 4. Demography 4.1. Settlement patterns in the Nordic peripheries .................................................................................57 4.2. Demographic trends over the last decade.........................................................................................64 4.3. Age structure ...........................................................................................................................................73 5. Measuring peripherality and accessibility in the Nordic peripheries ......................................................81 5.1. What is accessibility? .............................................................................................................................82 5.2. European accessibility measures..........................................................................................................92 5.3. Access to airports ...................................................................................................................................97 5.4. Road maintenance costs......................................................................................................................108 5.5. Rail connections in the study area.....................................................................................................110 5.6. Seaports and ferry connections .........................................................................................................113 5.7. Access to universities in the northernmost regions .......................................................................118 6. Socioeconomic characterisation of Sparsely populated areas .............................................................125 6.1. Employment.............................................................................................................................................125 6.2. Sources of income..................................................................................................................................135 6.3. Educational attainments.......................................................................................................................138 6.4. Wealth production.................................................................................................................................141 7. Terrain and climate.........................................................................................................................................145 7.1. Climatic conditions in the Nordic peripheries...............................................................................145 7.2. Assessing the economic effects of extreme climatic conditions................................................147 7.3. Land use.................................................................................................................................................151 7.4. Protected areas....................................................................................................................................155 8. Conclusion: The Northern periphery problem – A Syndrome of Disadvantage ..............................159 References................................................................................................................................................................165 Figures Chapter 1: Summary Figure 1.1. Areas with a population potential of 100 000 persons or less within a radius of 50 km........................................................................................................................... 4 Figure 1.2. Study area delimitation ............................................................................................................ 5 Figure 1.3. Settlement patterns in the Nordic peripheries ................................................................... 7 Figure 1.4. Cross-tabulation of net migration and population potentials......................................... 8 Figure 1.5. Population change from 1993 to 2002.............................................................................. 9 Figure 1.6. Potential accessibility by road to population in EU 27, Norway and Switzerland ............................................................................................................................... 11 Figure 1.7. Areas within 1 hour of the nearest airport ....................................................................... 12 Figure 1.8. Cross-tabulation of unemployment rates and population potentials ........................ 14 Figure 1.9. National variations in income levels.................................................................................... 15 Figure 1.10. National variations in proportions of transfer-income................................................... 16 Chapter 3: Sparsity Figure 3.1. Average population densities at NUTS-2 level................................................................ 32 Figure 3.2. Average population densities at NUTS-3 level................................................................ 33 Figure 3.3. Theoretical model illustrating the effect of centre structures on sparsity ............... 35 Figure 3.4. Population potentials within a 50 km radius in Europe................................................. 38 Figure 3.5. Sparsely populated areas in Europe - threshold of 50 inh/km2 ................................. 42 Figure 3.6. Sparsely populated areas in Europe - threshold of 12.5 inh/km2............................... 43 Figure 3.7. Sparsely populated areas