Getting to Pluralism: Pluralism: Getting to luralism in the Arab world has not yet matured into functional democratic politics. While ruling establishments, Islamist movements, Pand secular parties have introduced a much greater degree of pluralism into Arab societies, the imbalance of power and interdependence among these actors limits both the degree of political diversity and its effectiveness at bringing about reforms. The Arab world is likely to grapple with political apathy, low voter turnout, dwindling membership in registered parties, and shrinking constituencies for the foreseeable future. Even the Islamists, who demonstrated great ability to organize and gain followers in the past, have begun showing signs of decreasing popularity. Political Actors in the Arab World World in the Arab Actors Political Getting to Pluralism: Political Actors in the Arab World explores the balance of power between the disparate political forces of the Arab world. The essays in this volume examine the characteristics of the major political actors in great detail and assess the weaknesses of the secular parties. They also illustrate the complexities of Islamist participation in the political processes of several Arab countries—pointing out both similarities and Getting to differences. Finally, the authors evaluate how incumbent Arab regimes have been able to maintain their grip on power in spite of their claims that they support political and social reform. Pluralism Marina Ottaway is a senior associate in the Democracy and Rule of Law Program and director of the Carnegie Middle East Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Political Actors in the Arab World Amr Hamzawy is a senior associate at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, Lebanon. Ottaway • Hamzawy Ottaway Marina Ottaway Amr Hamzawy Editors Getting to Pluralism Political Actors in the Arab World Marina Ottaway Amr Hamzawy Editors Pluralism6x9 rev2.indd 1 6/19/09 4:50:27 PM © 2009 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the Carnegie Endowment. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 1779 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202-483-7600, Fax 202-483-1840 www.CarnegieEndowment.org The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace normally does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views and recommenda- tions presented in this publication do not necessarily represent the views of the Carnegie Endowment, its officers, staff, or trustees. To order, contact: Hopkins Fulfillment Service P.O. Box 50370, Baltimore, MD 21211-4370 1-800-537-5487 or 1-410-516-6956 Fax 1-410-516-6998 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication data Getting to pluralism : political actors in the Arab world / Marina Ottaway and Amr Hamzawy, editors. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-87003-244-8 (pbk.) -- ISBN 978-0-87003-245-5 (cloth) 1. Arab countries--Politics and government--1945- 2. Islam and politics--Arab coun- tries. 3. Political parties--Arab countries. I. Ottaway, Marina. II. Hamzawy, Amr. III. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. IV. Title. JQ1850.A91G38 2009 320.917’4927--dc22 2009017313 14 13 12 11 10 09 1 2 3 4 5 1st Printing 2009 Cover design and composition by Naylor Design, Inc. Printed by United Book Press Pluralism6x9 rev2.indd 2 6/19/09 4:50:27 PM CONTENTS Acknowledgments v Foreword vii Introduction: Pluralist Politics in Undemocratic Political Systems 1 MARINA OTTAWAY AND AmR HAmZAWY 1. Incumbent Regimes and the “King’s Dilemma” in the Arab World: Promise and Threat of Managed Reform 13 MIChELE DUNNE AND MARINA OTTAWAY 2. Fighting on Two Fronts: Secular Parties in the Arab World 41 MARINA OTTAWAY AND AmR HAmZAWY 3. Islamists in Politics: The Dynamics of Participation 69 AmR HAmZAWY AND MARINA OTTAWAY Pluralism6x9 rev2.indd 3 6/19/09 4:50:27 PM Conclusion: Old Actors and New Arenas 97 AmR HAmZAWY AND MARINA OTTAWAY Index 109 Contributors 117 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 119 Pluralism6x9 rev2.indd 4 6/19/09 4:50:27 PM AcKnoWLeDGMents his volume is the outcome of several years of research, in- cluding analysis of documents, research trips involving doz- ens of conversations, and several structured conferences organized by the Carnegie Endowment for International TPeace in the Middle East, in Europe, and in the United States. In the process, we have accumulated a large debt of gratitude to innumerable individuals who have given generously of their time to answer our questions and share their views with us. We hope that this book will convince them that the time they devoted to helping us was not wasted. We would also like to express out thanks to our colleague Nathan J. Brown, who partnered with us in the research on Islamist move- ments before returning to his positions as professor of political sci- ence and international affairs and director of the Institute for Middle East Studies at the George Washington University. Nathan remains a valued partner and a member of the greater Carnegie family. v Pluralism6x9 rev2.indd 5 6/19/09 4:50:27 PM vi GETTING TO PLURALISM Thomas Carothers, as vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, provided support and encour- agement for the project all along. Many Carnegie junior fellows have contributed to the research over the years. Dina Bishara, Mohammed Herzallah, and Adriana Qubaia in Washington and Bassam Moussa in Beirut deserve special thanks for their efforts, as do the members of the publications depart- ment, who ensured a smooth and for us painless production process. Finally, we want to express our gratitude to Saad Mehio and his assistant, Rony Abdelnour, who supervised the translation of the book into Arabic and edited the text. Their efforts have made it possible for us to achieve the goal of simultaneous publication of this volume in both English and Arabic. Amr Hamzawy Carnegie Middle East Center Beirut Marina Ottaway Middle East Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Washington Pluralism6x9 rev2.indd 6 6/19/09 4:50:27 PM FOREWORD ince its founding half a dozen years ago, the Carnegie Endow- ment’s Middle East Program has made political change in the Arab world the central focus of its work. As though turning a microscope lens to higher and higher magnification, scholars Sin Washington, D.C., and at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, Lebanon, focused first on political change and democracy promotion in historical and broadly comparative terms, examining conditions and trends in the Middle East as compared to the rest of the world. They then analyzed the implications for governments outside the re- gion that wish to support political liberalization. More recently, and in progressively greater detail, this extraordinarily productive team of Arab, American, and European scholars has zeroed in on identifying the key political actors in the region (including those one would expect to be important but aren’t), analyzing the balance of power among them and describing the prospects for future change. Uncharted Journey (2005) examined the full range of actors in Arab society, from moderate Islamists and governing regimes, to civil society and women’s movements, and then offered recommendations outsiders vii Pluralism6x9 rev2.indd 7 6/19/09 4:50:27 PM viii GETTING TO PLURALISM willing to be involved for the long term might follow to achieve construc- tive change. The team then tested its conclusions through a country-by- country analysis across the Middle East, covering the Gulf states, the Maghreb, and the heart of the Arab world. The results were published in Beyond the Façade: Political Reform in the Arab World (2008). The au- thors found cosmetic change, orchestrated from the top but strictly limited to prevent any meaningful redistribution of power away from the ruling regimes. Notwithstanding the high-flown democratic change rhetoric of the middle years of this decade, they found no fundamental political progress in any of the ten countries they examined in depth. This volume turns back to a focus on the important political actors, which authors Marina Ottaway and Amr Hamzawy believe are only three: ruling establishments, liberal or leftist secular political parties, and moderate Islamist groups (those that have renounced violence in favor of participation in their country’s politics). Right away this list contains a powerful conclusion: that civil society is not now, and is not likely soon to be, a key player in the Arab world. This includes both politically active NGOs and the much ballyhooed Arab street, which, they point out, “has not been a major political actor … since the end of the colonial period.” The key reason for the political stagnation that characterizes the region is not, they believe, Arab cultural exceptional- ism or the result of pervasive conflicts that plague the Middle East, but an entrenched imbalance of power among these three that none of them is strong enough, or motivated enough, to break. A first-rate think tank should produce work whose conclusions are directly useful to policy makers with insights equally valuable to schol- ars. This volume more than meets that test. If political stalemate is the central issue, then foreign efforts to promote change through develop- ment assistance or cultural exchanges or education or the various tools of programs collectively known as democracy assistance are not