PAK-SCMS BULLETIN PAKISTAN SATELLITE BASED CROP MONITORING SYSTEM Government of Pakistan Volume I, Issue 9 10-September-2011 Prelude: SUPARCO, the national space Crop Situation: August, 2011 agency, is interalia involved in monitoring of crops through use Summary of satellite remote sensing and GIS technologies. This work is The months of August and Septem- being carried out in collaboration ber are symbolized by peak vegeta- with Pakistan Meteorological tive growth and a photosynthetic Department and Provincial Crop activity of the highest order during the year. The Kharif crops grown Reporting Services. during this period include sugarcane, cotton, rice, fodders, vegetables, SUPARCO has developed tech- maize, pulses, oilseeds and a large niques and procedures for fast number of other minor crops. There track delivery of reliable and were wide spread rains in upper and reproducible information. lower reaches of the country. The highest cumulative rain of 857 mm Inside this issue: was received in Mithi, Sindh from 1st August to 7th September 2011. Being Crop Situation August 1 located in the heart of Thar desert, 2011 the rate of soil infiltration was very high. The rate of runoff water was Rainfall and Flash floods, 2 therefore minimal. About 26 stations 2011 in the country received more than Satellite Based Flood 200 mm cumulative rain, 10 stations Monitoring and Crop 3-4 more than 300 mm cumulative rain Damage Assessment and 6 stations more than 400 mm st cumulative rain during this period. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) 31 August, 2011 Crop Situation 5 The major issue was downstream surface drainage needs of the province. A 4600 cusecs capacity Left Bank Normalized Difference overflow of rain water to low lying Outfall (LBOD) spinal drain was designed to deliver 2000 cusecs into Vegetation Index areas. Given the steep slopes in Khy- Shakoor Lake and the remaining 2600 cusecs to pass through Badin dis- 6-7 (NDVI): Growth Profile ber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab, the trict into the Arabian Sea. The design of the drain does not accommodate at Divisional Level water gushed along the slopes into runoff water to find an inlet into LBOD. The rain water either overtops creeks and rivers in these provinces. Normalized Difference the banks of the drain or farmers breach them to drain their field due to Vegetation Index the disadvantage of lower riparian .This inundated large areas in Tando (NDVI): Growth Profile 8 In both of these provinces the pat- Muhammad Khan and Badin, displacing masses from rural Sindh. at Provincial level tern of flood is diverse than last year. Low level floods were observed in On cotton front, the arrivals increased tremendously during the month Vegetation Difference, the rivers of Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej. August, 2011 9 of August. However, the levy of a 3.5 percent withholding tax under SRO A high tide of 70000 cusecs passed -1161 dated December 31, 2010 on phutti (seed cotton) flashed a contro- Temporal Vegetation 11- through Sutlej on 16-17 August and versy and brought a log jam on merchandizing of the commodity. To re- changes 12 about 82000 cusecs on 24-August solve this issue, the Government on August 13, 2011 announced that the 2011. The Daik and Pulkho brooks Agro-met Conditions 13 tax will be imposed on commission agents at 10 percent of the commis- outburst the banks in Punjab. Last sion rate and not on the farming community. The situation remained fluid, Irrigation Water Supply year the floods mainly stretched leading to grid lock of trade activities in cotton sector causing alarm to Situation 14 along the banks of Swat, Kabul and growers. This issue was negotiated by PCGA with FBR on 23-August and Maximum Temperature: Indus rivers and the divisions of trade activities in this sector started next day. It was decided on 24- August, 2011 15 D.G.Khan, Larkana and Jafferabad August 2011 that in case the ginners make purchases of cotton from were affected. Daily Hydrological Status commission agents, it would be subjected to deduction of 10 percent of the commission. at Indus Basin: August 16 In Sindh, the situation was relatively 2011 discomforting and unmanageable. The In Sindh province, the stagnating runoff water resulted in damage of Fertilizer Situation 17 hammering rains continued shower- around 45.9 thousand ha area of cotton crop. The most awful situation ing up to first decadal of September. Field View of Crops: 01 was observed in Mirpurkhas although cotton crop was also affected in, September, 2011 18 The land surface gradient is usually Benazir Abad, Sanghar, Ghotki. Tando Muhammad khan, Tando Allah Yar horizontal in Sindh and is generally and other districts. Damage also accrued to rice crop on 32.4 thousand Kharif Forecast: 2011-12 19 slow to respond to surface and sub- ha in Sindh, mainly Badin, due to overtopping and submergence of rice Crop Statistics 19 Pakistan Satellite based Crop Monitoring System Bulletin is a monthly publication of SUPARCO. Page 2 PAK-SCMS BULLETIN However, the rice crop also benefitted from the rains and the losses in some districts are expected to be offset by gains in other areas. The overall impact on rice crop is expected to be positive. The sugarcane crop is almost 11 month old in Sindh province and height of the crop flooding is 6-8 feet. Sugarcane is a water loving crop. Gen- erally sugarcane crop is not damaged by flash floods. Some damages can accrue by lodging and uprooting of the crop. However the sugarcane productivity is likely to increase due to availability of additional water from rains. The Kharif vegetables are at fag end and major harvests have already been made. The damage on this account is therefore ignorable. The Rabi vegetables are being sown. In affected areas these vegetable may have to be re-sown. Sowing of onion and tomato nurseries may be affected and these nurseries may have to be re-sown. The chilies crop in Kunri may be affected by prolonged flooding. Rainfall and Flash Floods 2011 The summer rainfall in Pakistan is generally, converged during the periods of July to September. The low pressures developed over Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, are the main source of rain fall during this season. The highest rainfall of 857 mm in the country was recorded at Mithi in Sindh. In Punjab, the highest rainfall of the order of 438 mm was received in Lahore. About 13 stations in Punjab namely Bahawalnagar, Jhelum, Khanpur, Islamabad, Lahore, Mandi Bahu-din, Mangla, Murree, Noorpur Thal, Okara, Sahiwal, Sargodha and Sialkot received rainfall above 200 mm. In Sindh, seven stations namely Badin, Chhor, Hyderabad, Mithi, Shaheed Benazirabad, Padidan and Mirpur Khas received rainfall above 200 mm. In KP, the highest rain fall of the order of 377 mm was received in Kohat. Five stations namely Balakot, Dir, Kakul, Kohat and Parachinnar received rainfall above 200 mm. In Balochistan the highest rainfall of the order of 208 mm was received in Kalat. This was the only station in Balochistan receiving rainfall to this level. The graphics are given below. Volume I, Issue 9 Page 3 Satellite Based Flood Monitoring and Crop Damage Assessment The daily mapping of the areas under rain water was carried out using MODIS sensors of medium resolution of 250 m. This was compared with the pre flood satellite imagery. For detailed demarcation of flood extent, fine resolution SPOT 5 satellite images were used. The agricultural area was estimated by overlaying agriculture mask over the flood extent map. For estimation of area under crops, the archived crop statistics were used to draw trend lines and to apportion fallow fields and areas under various crops. Cotton is the most sensitive crop requiring 5 to 6 irrigations during the growth period. However it requires well drained and oxidized soil environment for its root system. The cotton crop under flood water for more than 4-5 days was taken as damaged. The rice crop has a foliar respiratory system that continues even under flooding so far water does not overtop the plants. This crop is about 2 feet high at an average at this stage. It is assumed that 50 percent of the flooded crop was subjected to deep inundation, submerging the plants , with ultimate irrevocable damage. The remaining 50 percent of the crop on peripheries of inundation, escaped damage. The Kharif fodders are relatively in better posi- tion as these are generally 4 to 6 feet high. The fodders are still useful as silage even if these dry up. Despite this, a loss of 50 percent has been assumed. Sugarcane is almost 11 month old crop and crop height at this stage is around 6 to 8 feet. In the light of experience of SUARCO sci- entists during the floods of 2010, it is forecasted that the sugarcane crop is not likely to be damaged by floods that are relatively placid than the high tide, high speed and ferocious Indus floods of last year. Breaches in Drains & Canals Several breaches in protective bunds of the canals have been noticed in Sindh province. The most prominent breaches were identified and de- lineated in district Badin, Mirpur Khas, UmerKot, Tando Muhammad Khan, Thatta, Tando Allah Yar and Sanghar. Change detection based on multi-temporal and multi- resolution satellite imagery was used to ascertain the location of breaches, their sizes, and damage to other infrastructure. Various base layers such as settlements, irrigation network, roads, railway lines and bunds were overlaid on flood extent map for assessment of infrastructural damage and mapping. Page 4 PAK-SCMS BULLETIN Damage to Crops The geographic area affected by rains and flash floods in Sindh up to 06 September 2011 was a little more than half a million ha.