Mountain Views The Newsletter of the Consortium for Integrated Climate Research in Western Mountains CIRMOUNT Informing the Mountain Research Community Vol. 1, No. 1 January 2007 - This page left blank intentionally - Mountain Views The Newsletter of the Consortium for Integrated Climate Research in Western Mountains CIRMOUNT http://www.fs.fed.us/psw/cirmount/ Contact: [email protected] Table of Contents The Mountain Views Newsletter: Introductory Remarks Henry Diaz and Connie Millar on behalf of CIRMOUNT 1 Water Year 2006—Another ‘Compressed’ Spring in the Michael Dettinger, Phil Pasteris, Dan Cayan, and Tom 2 Western United States? Pagano Response of Western Mountain Ecosystems to Climatic Nate Stephenson, Dave Peterson, Dan Fagre, Craig Allen, 4 Variability and Change: The Western Mountain Initiative Don McKenzie, Jill Baron, and Kelly O’Brian Promoting Global Change Research in the American Greg Greenwood and Claudia Drexler 10 Cordillera Monitoring Alpine Plants for Climate Change: The Connie Millar and Dan Fagre 12 North American GLORIA Project The U.S. Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Howard Diamond & Mike Helfert 16 Program: Plans for High Elevation GCOS Surface Network Sites Based on the Benchmark U.S. Climate Reference Network (CRN) System NOAA’s Hydrometeorology Test Bed (HMT) Pro- Timothy Schneider, Marty Ralph, David Kingsmill, & 20 gram—Accelerating the Infusion of Science & Technol- Brooks Martner ogy into Daily Forecasting Meeting Report: The Third Mountain Climate Workshop Connie Millar, Lisa Graumlich, Henry Diaz and Mike 24 (MTNCLIM) Dettinger Announcements Publication of Mapping New Terrain The CIRMOUNT Executive Committee 27 Some Recent Publications of Interest 28 Cover Photos: Mt. Hood, OR (front), Mt. Jefferson (back). Credit, Connie Millar, USFS Graphic Designer: Barbara DeLuisi, NOAA/ESRL - This page left blank intentionally - Mountain Views—the Newsletter of the Consortium for Integrated Climate Research in Western Mountains (CIRMOUNT) Henry F. Diaz1 and Connie I. Millar2 1 NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO 2 USDA Forest Service, PSW Research Station, Albany, CA The United Nations designated the year 2002 as the “Interna- rain (consult the website to download or order a free copy of the tional Year of Mountains”. The aim was “to promote the conser- report: http://www.fs.fed.us/psw/cirmount/publications/pdf/new_ vation and sustainable development of mountain regions, and to terrain.pdf). A stated goal of the publication is to, “inform deci- ensure the well-being of mountain and lowland communities”. sion makers and the public of the nature of our concerns, and [to] That year was a worldwide celebration of mountain communities highlight critical areas where monitoring and research are needed with a focus on maintaining mountain biodiversity and promoting to develop appropriate coping strategies for future changes.” sustainable development. Launching of the new Mountain Views CIRMOUNT Newslet- Like the earth’s oceans and rainforests, mountains are crucial ter represents another tangible outcome toward the accomplish- to life. Mountains are the source of freshwater for half of human- ment of this goal—to inform our fellow citizens of the latest ity. They are storehouses of genetic diversity that help feed the developments regarding the evolution of western climate, and world. Unlike many of the world’s mountain regions, which are the evolving natural and societal impacts associated with those home to some 840 million people, many of whom are chronically changes. The newsletter is meant to be a clearinghouse for undernourished, the people living in the mountain regions of information about the state of regional and larger-scale climate western North America are among the World’s wealthiest. Nev- patterns, and about climate- and related environmental and eco- ertheless, the West is under threat from rapid climate change and logical-science activities bearing on western society. demographic changes. These changes are already evident in the Mountain regions have been referred to as the “Third Pole of form of massive forest dieback, massive insect outbreaks, such as the Planet” and “Water Towers for the 21st Century.” The imag- the mountain pine beetle, and looming water scarcities. ery is not only effective in highlighting the fundamental impor- Out of the growing recognition that the climate of the West tance of mountains for human well being, it also embodies practi- is changing, a group of scientists representing a wide range of cal and aesthetic concepts that are useful for communicating the disciplines organized themselves into a professional network, the need for action to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of ongoing Consortium for Integrated Climate Research in Western Moun- and future climate changes. To paraphrase Sir George Mallory, tains (CIRMOUNT), to promote public awareness of these loom- we need to do these things, “because they are there”. We invite ing problems and efforts to address them. One recent outgrowth your inquiries about, and contributions to, the new CIRMOUNT of that effort was the mid-2006 publication of Mapping New Ter- Mountain Views Newsletter. 1 Water Year 2006 — Another ‘Compressed’ Spring in the Western United States? Michael Dettinger1, Phil Pasteris2, Dan Cayan1, and Tom Pagano2 1 US Geological Survey, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA 2 Natural Resources Conservation Service, Portland, OR Spring 2004 broke many historical records in the western US with its early start and severe snowpack losses (Pagano et al., 2004); remarkably, the spring of 2006 was something of a replay of those events in the interior West, with significant impacts on streamflow in the Colorado and Platte Basins. Once again lack of precipitation and warm temperatures combined to turn reasonable expectations of near average runoff into disappointment. Across much of the western US (excepting mostly Arizona and New Mexico), snowpacks were more abundant than normal on April 1, 2006. However, in April and May unusually warm and dry weather throughout much of the interior West reduced snowpacks dramatically and hastened the onset of spring by as many as three weeks. Most of Utah, Colorado, Wyoming and Montana were in their warmest historical deciles (10%; >+1ºC above normal throughout the region) during April and May. At the same time, Colorado and large parts of the surrounding states were in the driest historical decile or quartile (<75% and <50% of normal April and May precipitation throughout this part of the re- gion). The result was a reduction of snowpacks from near-normal conditions on April 1, to less than about 75% of normal by May 1, and even less by June 1, in much of the interior West (Fig. 1). Snow sublimated, evaporated, and melted without much replen- ishment under this climatic onslaught, and the normal springtime Figure 1. Percentages of normal snowpack water contents snowmelt-onset pulses in the rivers of this interior region came as on April 1 (top) and May 1 (bottom), 2006, in the western US much as three weeks earlier than normal as a result (Fig. 2). [from Natural Resources Conservation Services’ datasets at: http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/cgibin/westsnow.pl In contrast to Spring 2004, the Pacific coast states from Cali- fornia-Nevada to Washington-Idaho experienced a moderately by the late-season storms of April from the already above-nor- wet winter, with unusually cool conditions in March, followed by mal April 1 conditions (Fig. 1, top) to widespread spectacular unusually wet conditions and near-normal temperatures in April. snowpacks of May 1 (Fig. 1, bottom), reaching 150% to as much This sequence of weather conditions formed, preserved, and then as 200% of normal in many areas. Eventually, in May and June, enhanced the springtime snowpacks and forestalled the onset as the very warm temperatures of summer 2006 set in, snowmelt of spring snowmelt until two to three weeks later than normal. commenced and streamflows reached remarkable and sustained March throughout California was in the coolest historical decile, heights. The snowmelt-onset pulses in the rivers of the Pacific more than –2ºC below normal in most of the State. Across the Pa- coast states were as many as two to three weeks later than usual. cific states, temperatures were generally less than 1ºC cooler than The April increases in snowpack came during a time of year normal in April, but by May had risen to >+1ºC and, on the east- when large storms are normally relatively weak and infrequent, ern slopes of the Sierra Nevada, even >+2ºC warmer than normal. and when snowmelt usually begins in earnest in most of the area; April precipitation was 150% to >400% of normal in much of the not so, this year. Pacific states area, exceeding the wettest 20% and, even, 10% of These large deviations from normal springtime conditions historical Aprils. As a result, snowpacks were generally increased pose significant challenges to western water managers, whether 2 (e.g., the Merced River in Yosemite Valley), bearing down on and threatening damage to many flood control and water supply structures. Thus, in the interior West, conditions moved quickly and unexpectedly from winter to summer; in the coastal states, the winter to summer transition was quick but late. In both cases, spring was all but missing. Most notably, the similarities between the early and dessicating spring of 2006 in the interior West and the westwide record-breaking early and dessicating spring of 2004, just two years previous, raise concerns that we have entered a climatic phase in which, for whatever reasons, spring- time conditions have been “temporally compressed,” resulting in reduced overall yield of western watersheds when compared to the historical record. The potential for such a shift in the influence of springtime climate on western water supplies challenges traditional models and monitoring systems to capture rapid changes in springtime snowpacks that are influenced by a combination of very warm Figure 2. Date anomalies of the first major snowmelt pulse temperatures and lack of precipitation.