THE FERTILITY BEHAVIOUR OF MUSLIMS OF SRI LANKA By SHAHUL HAMEED.HASBULLAH B.A. (Hons.), University of Peradeniya, Sri Lanka, 1975 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS In THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES Department of Geography We accept this thesis as conforming to the required standard THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA October 1984 (c) Shahul Hameed Hasbullah , 1984 In presenting this thesis in partial fulfilment of the requirements for an advanced degree at the University of British Columbia, I agree that the Library shall make it freely available for reference and study. I further agree that permission for extensive copying of this thesis for scholarly purposes may be granted by the head of my department or by his or her representatives. It is understood that copying or publication of this thesis for financial gain shall not be allowed without my written permission. Department of -g-va "TOO /^Y» Vv^ The University of British Columbia 1956 Main Mall Vancouver, Canada V6T 1Y3 Date - ) o - , DE-6 (.3/81) i i ABSTRACT Although fertility rate is comparatively higher among Muslims than other religious groups in Sri Lanka, the reason for this high fertility rate has, not been fully investigated. This study attempts to determine what factors influence Muslim fertility using individual household data. The data are derived from a systematic interview of 323 household heads in eleven Muslim settlements in Sri Lanka in 1981. Using crosstabulation and path analysis, the study ..found that socio-economic and demographic factors such as female level of schooling, female age at marriage, socio-economic status, and child mortality are closely associated with the fertility variation of the surveyed population. A woman with little education is more likely to marry early, is engaged in household activities, and may lose many children, all of which results in high fertility. The path analysis further suggests that low female schooling directly and indirectly through age at marriage "causes" high fertility of the surveyed population. The female level of schooling is found to be low among Muslims; therefore fertility is comparatively higher. However, the youn• ger women have shown comparatively lower fertility due to recent educational changes. The low aspiration level for education among this group is mainly due to the bitter experience of the colonial educa• tion system which lasted until 1948 and the comparative lack of educational opportunities in the present. Increasing female education and the improving socio-economic status of the female iii population may reduce the present high fertility level of this community in the future. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Abstract ' ii-iii Table of Contents iv-vii List of Tables viii-xii List of Figures xiii-xiv Acknowledgements xv Chapter One: Introduction 1- 9 1.1 Socio-Economic and Historical Background 2- 9 Chapter Two: Theories of Fertility Decline and a 10- 33 Conceptual Framework for the Study of Fertility Behaviour of the Muslims of Sri Lanka 2.1 A Review of Theories of Fertility Decline 10- 20 2.1.1 Malthusian and Neo-Malthusian 11- 12 Perspectives 2.1.2 The Theory of Demographic 12- 17 Transition 2.1.3 Recent Approaches to Fertility 17- 20 Decline 2.2 A Conceptual Framework for the Fertility 20- 33 Behaviour of the Muslims of Sri Lanka 2.2.1 Religion and Fertility 23- 26 2.2.2 Female Status and Fertility 26- 29 2.2.3 Socio-Economic Status, Family 29- 30 Form and Fertility 2.2.4 Infant and Child Mortality 30- 31 and Fertility 2.2.5 An Analytical Framework for 31- 33 the Fertility Behaviour of Muslims of Sri Lanka Chapter Three: The Recent Fertility Trends in 34- 56 Sri Lanka and of Sri Lankan Muslims 3.1 Recent Fertility Trends in Sri Lanka 34- 41 3.1.1 Population Growth 34- 35 3.1.2 Recent Fertility Trends in 35- 38 Sri Lanka 3.1.3 The Determinants of Fertility 39- 41 Decline 3.2 Fertility Trends Among Muslims 41- 56 3.2.1 Muslim Population Growth 42- 44 3.2.2 Fertility Trends Among Muslims 44- 50 3.2.3 Determinants of Muslim Fertility 50- 56 Chapter Four: Methodology 57- 64 Chapter Five: Study Area 65- 86 5.1 Muslim Settlement and their Religio- 65- 69 Cultural Enviroment 5.2 Surveyed Muslim Settlements 69- 72 5.3 Surveyed Households 72- 78 5.3.1 Head of Household 73- 75 5.3.2 Family Members 75- 76 5.3.3 Socio-Economic Status 76- 78 5.4 The Determinants of Fertility 78- 83 VI 5.5 Variables and their Measurements 83- 86 Chapter Six: Variation in Fertility by Geographic 87-106 and Socio-Economic Factors 6.1 Variation in Geographic Locations 87- 91 6.2 Education and Fertility 91- 94 6.3 Female Age at Marriage and Fertility 94- 96 6.4 Mean Birth Interval and Fertility 96-100 6.5 Child Mortality and Fertility 100-102 6.6 The Findings from Pearson and Partial 102-104 Correlation 6.7 The Summary of Findings 104-106 Chapter Seven: Multivariate Analysis of Fertility 107-121 7.1 A Predictive Model of Fertility 113-114 7.2 Fertility Behaviour of Women Aged 49 114-118 Years and Above 7.3 Fertility Behaviour of Women Aged 48 118-121 Years and Below 7.4 Summary 121 Chapter Eight: Conclusion 122-127 8.1 General Characteristics 122-123 8.2 Major Findings 123-124 8.3 Findings from Multivariate Analysis 125-127 Bibliography 128-137 Appendix 1: Muslim Settlements in Sri Lanka by 138-144 Province and District Appendix 2: Questionaire: Fertility Survey -- 145-152 Muslims of Sri Lanka vii Appendix 3: Selected Socio-Economic Character- 153-155 istics of Eleven Surveyed Muslim Settlements Appendix 4: Specific Forms in which Variables 156 are Coded and Analysed in the Path Analysi s viii LIST OF TABLES Page Table 1.1 The Level of Education by Ethinc 8 Groups Table 3.1 Fertility Indicators (Sri Lanka) 36 1953-1974 Table 3.2 Percentage of Women Currently 39 Married in 1953, 1971 and 1981 Table 3.3 Determinants of Fertility in 42 Sri Lanka Table 3.4 Population Growth in Sri Lanka: 43 Muslim Growth in Perspective Table 3.5 Percentage Change in Population 47 by Religious and Ethnic Groups, 1911-1981 Table 3.6 Crude Birth Rates and Child-women 48 Ratio by Ethnic Groups 1946-1977 Table 3.7 Percentage of Change Between 1960 50 /65 and 1970/75 in Age-specific Fertility Rates by Ethnicity and Religion Table 3.8 Five-Year Average Crude Death Rates, 52 1911-1975 Table 3.9 Infant Mortality by Ethnic Groups, 53 1910-1964 Table 3.10 Percentage of Female Level of 54 Schooling by Ethnic Gruops ix Table 3.11 Mean Number of Live Births per 56 Ever-Married Women Aged 45-49 by Socio-Economic Status and Ethnic Groups Table 4.1 Selected Sample Muslim Settlements 61 Along with other Background Information Table 5.1 Number of Surveyed Households and 73 Surveyed Population According to the Settlements Table 5.2 Socio-Economic Status of the 79 Surveyed Households Table 5.3 The Number of Total Pregnancies 79 of Surveyed Population Table 5.4 The Wife's Level of Schooling 81 Table 5.5 The Wife's Workforce Participation 84 Table 5.6 Infant and Child Mortality 84 Table 5.7 Variables and Measurements Used in 85 the Analysis Table 6.1 Mean Number of Live Births per Ever- 89 Married Women by Women's Age and Geographical Location Table 6.2 Mean Number of Live Births per Ever- 89- 90 married Women by Women's Age at Marriage, Level of Schooling, Socio• economic Status and Geographical Locat ion Table 6.3 Mean Number of Live Births per Ever- 90 Married Women by Wife's Level of Schooling and Sub-cultural Regions Table 6.4 Mean Number of Live Births per Ever- 92 married Women by Women's Present Age, Age at Marriage, and Level of Schooling Table 6.5 Mean Number of Live Births per Ever- 93 married Women by Social Group and Level of Education Table 6.6 Mean Number of Live Birth per Ever- 94 married Women by Wife's Workforce Participation, Husband's Occupation and Level of Schooling Table 6.7 Mean Number of Live Birth per Ever- 95 married Women by Women's Present Age, Mean Birth Interval and Age at Marr iage Table 6.8 Mean Number of Live Births per Ever- 97 married Women by Socio-Economic Status and Age at Marriage Table 6.9 Mean Number of Live Births per Ever- 97 married Women by Women's Present Age and Mean Birth Interval Table 6.10 Mean Number of Live Births per Ever- 98 married Women by Background Variables and Mean Birth Interval xi Table 6.11 Mean Number of Live Births per Ever- 100 married Women by Percentage of Male Births, Child Mortality, and Mean Birth Interval Table 6.12 Mean Number of Live Births per Ever- 101 married Women by Present Age, Age at Marriage, Social Status and Child Mortality Table 6.13 The Relationship Between Selected 103 Background Variables and Number of Live Births Table 6.14 The Relationship Between Selected 103-104 Background Variables and Number of Live Births When Controlled for Women's Present Age Table 6.15 Mean Number of Births per Ever- 104 married Surveyed (Women) Population Table 6.16 Specific Influence of Certain 106 Variables on Fertility of Muslims of Sri Lanka Table 7.1 Path Coefficients for Model Predicting 112 Fertility Behaviour of Muslim Women in Sri Lanka (323 cases) Table 7.2 Path Coefficients for Model Predicting 117 Fertility Behaviour of Muslim Women- 49 Years and Above (67 cases) xii Table 7.3 Path Coefficients for Model Predicting 120 Fertility Behaviour of Muslim Women- 48 Years and Below (256 cases) x i i i LIST OF FIGURES Page Figure 1.1 Distribution of Muslim 3 Populat ion Figure 2.1 Schematic Diagram Indicating 32 the Relationship of Selected Variables in Fertility Behaviour Figure 3.1 Age-Specific Fertility Rates- 37 1953, 1963, 1971 and