JUNE 2018 ISSUE NO. 244 Political Opposition in Russia in 2018: Composition, Challenges and Prospects KANAK GOKARN ABSTRACT Russia recently witnessed the re-election of its long-serving president. A constitutionally mandated term limit suggests this would be Vladimir Putin’s last presidential term. As Russia enters a period of power transition, it is likely that a number of political actors will become relevant during this phase. This brief looks at the groups that form the opposition—those operating within the formal institutions and the major players outside it—to the incumbent government in Russia. The paper will examine their composition, their role in the current Russian political landscape and the influence they will wield in the future. INTRODUCTION The year 2018 has been an eventful one for served as prime minister from 2008 to 2012. Russia so far. Amidst ever-expanding Following this, he was re-elected president for sanctions and worsening relations with the a six-year term in 2012. West, Russians re-elected Vladimir Putin as president. Most pre-election analyses left President Putin is a popular figure: he little doubt of the outcome. This marks the received around 76 percent of the vote share beginning of his fourth overall presidential with an official turnout of over 67 percent, and term. Previously, he served as president for his approval ratings have remained in the 80s 1 two four-year terms starting in 2000. He then since 2014. Russia’s re-assertiveness in the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) is a public policy think tank that aims to influence the formulation of policies for building a strong and prosperous India. ORF pursues these goals by providing informed analyses and in-depth research, and organising events that serve as platforms for stimulating and productive discussions. ISBN 978-81-938027-0-0 © 2018 Observer Research Foundation. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, copied, archived, retained or transmitted through print, speech or electronic media without prior written approval from ORF. Political Opposition in Russia in 2018: Composition, Challenges and Prospects foreign-policy sphere, particularly in Syria and of state and nominates the chairperson of the Crimea, has partially contributed to this. The government, i.e. the prime minister. A election, however, was marred by voter apathy majority of the State Duma, the lower house of due to the inevitability of the result and the the federal legislature, needs to approve this absence of a viable alternative candidate. The appointment. If the president’s nominee is turnout fell slightly short of the authorities’ rejected thrice, the constitution allows them to unofficial target of 70 percent. This was higher dismiss the Duma and call for fresh elections. than the 65 percent turnout in the 2012 presidential elections. What makes this term The candidates for president must meet significant for Russia is the possibility of it certain standard requirements. Criminal being Putin’s last. The Russian constitution convictions render one ineligible to run. sets a two-consecutive term limit for the post Candidates from political parties with seats in of president. President Putin will not be the State Duma have free access to the eligible to run for the elections until 2030. He election, i.e. they do not need additional will be 77 at that point. Recent developments signatures. Those from non-Duma parties are in China have raised the question of him required to collect 100,000 signatures in staying on, but given the precedent he set by support of their candidacies, with no more stepping down in 2008, this seems unlikely. than 2,500 from one of Russia’s 85 federal subjects.2 Independent candidates require For the past 18 years, Russia has 300,000 signatures with no more than 7,500 experienced a fairly predictable domestic from one subject, and support from a group of political environment. However, it has now at least 500 citizens. Earlier, the requirements entered a period of transition. It will, were more stringent: while independent therefore, be useful to look at the other major candidates required 2,000,000 signatures, political actors in Russia’s domestic sphere, non-Duma party-affiliated candidates needed particularly those whose outlooks differ from 1,000,000. the government. The paper will focus on the parties, groups and figures that constitute the In 2012, President Putin ran as a candidate domestic political opposition in Russia, of United Russia, the current ruling party. He primarily as they have coalesced around the was also the party’s chairperson from 2008 to 2018 elections and the start of the subsequent 2012. In 2018, he ran as an independent term. It looks at their composition, the candidate, even though it would have been challenges they face and their future easier for him to run as a party candidate. This prospects. was likely done due to the growing unpopularity of the party itself and to THE ELECTION PROCESS demonstrate that he personally still enjoys the support of a broad segment of the population. Russia is a federal semi-presidential republic. There were seven other candidates. It features a bicameral legislature—the Federal Assembly—and a powerful, directly As for the legislative elections, deputies of elected presidency. The president is the head the State Duma are elected on the basis of two 2 ORF ISSUE BRIEF No. 244 l JUNE 2018 Political Opposition in Russia in 2018: Composition, Challenges and Prospects lists: 225 of the 450 seats through party lists 1996. In the same year, Zyuganov came close based on proportional representation, and the to defeating the incumbent president, Boris other half through single-member Yeltsin, forcing the elections into a run-off. constituencies in a first-past-the-post system. They have also been the largest faction in the This system has undergone changes too, from State Duma in 1995 and 1999. Zyuganov has a fully proportional representational system been the opposition leader in several cabinets. that had been in place since 2003 to the current Grudinin received almost 12 percent of the split re-established in 2013. The threshold for vote share in the 2018 elections. entering the Duma is currently five percent of the total vote. Five parties sit in opposition. The Liberal-Democratic Party of Russia, the third-largest faction with 39 seats, was POLITICAL PARTIES IN THE STATE DUMA founded in 1991. In the erstwhile Soviet Union, it was the second officially recognised As of October 2017, Russia’s Central Election party. The party is opposed to both neoliberal Commission (CEC) had registered 67 parties.3 capitalism and communism, and its platform In the ongoing Seventh Convocation of the can be described as chauvinist and revanchist, State Duma, six parties are represented. supporting the restoration of a ‘greater Russia’. United Russia, the party in power, is the It espouses anti-Western attitudes with a belief largest faction with 343 of 450 seats. in a strong state role in domestic affairs. In the 1993 State Duma elections, the party received The second-largest faction in the Duma is a plurality of votes. Its leader, Vladimir the Communist Party of the Russian Zhirinovsky, 71, has been a fixture of the Federation (CPRF) with 42 seats. It was presidential elections, contesting every single formed in 1993. Its leader, 73-year-old election except the one in 2004. In the 2018 Gennady Zyuganov, has participated in every elections, he placed third behind Pavel presidential election since 1993 (except in Grudinin. 2004) but chose not to run in 2018. The party The fourth-largest party in the Duma with instead nominated Pavel Grudinin, a 23 seats is “A Just Russia.” As a social- businessperson who is a former member of democratic party, it supports a welfare state, United Russia and not a member of the CPRF. improved labour legislation and individual The hope was that a fresh face with moderate property rights, and a market economy with views would do better to attract a broader base progressive taxation. It was formed in 2006 of voters. The party’s platform focuses on after the merger of parties with similar improving labour conditions, progressive ideologies. While they supported Dmitry taxation, social welfare schemes and economic Medvedev for the post of president in 2008, sovereignty, and includes measures such as they fielded the party head Sergey Mironov in 4 Russia exiting the World Trade Organisation. 2012. In the latest 2018 elections, they A vocal faction with a well-established history supported the candidacy of Vladimir Putin. and party apparatus, it has been attracting new members.5 They have consistently placed The smallest parties in the Duma with one second in every presidential election since seat each are Rodina6 and Civic Platform. ORF ISSUE BRIEF No. 244 l JUNE 2018 3 Political Opposition in Russia in 2018: Composition, Challenges and Prospects Rodina, a conservative nationalist party, was NON-DUMA POLITICAL PARTIES formed in 2003 and is headed by Aleksey Zhuravlyov. It supports a strong state role in Parties without seats in the Duma, too, fielded economy, improved labour r ig hts, candidates for the 2018 elections. Grigory administrative services and Russia’s improved Yavlinsky, the founder of the liberal party standing in a multipolar world. Civic Platform Yabloko, ran as its candidate. Formed in the is a young party, formed in 2012 after the 1990s, its platform advocates for greater civil party registration process was eased. It was liberties, improved rule of law, increased formed by billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov after spending in the social sector and stronger he placed third in the 2012 presidential anti-corruption policies. It is a proponent of elections. Pro-business and pro-industry, it the European model of development and seeks 8 considers improving the sectors of education, better relations with the West.