John Wall and Associates Market Analysis Bulls Creek Apartments Family Tax Credit (Sec. 42) Apartments Charleston, South Carolina Charleston County Prepared For: Bulls Creek SC LLC March 2019 (Revised March 8, 2019) PCN: 19-022 P ost Office Box 1835 Seneca, SC 29679 Telephone (864) 261-3147 [email protected] www.johnwallandassociates.com John Wall and Associates 2 1 Foreword the NCHMA market study model 1.1 Qualifications Statement content and market study terms. He was John Wall and Associates specializes in lead author for NCHMA’s “Selecting market analysis, data mapping, and Comparable Properties” best practices analysis of troubled properties. The firm paper and also NCHMA’s “Field Work” began in 1983 concentrating on work in white paper. In 2007, he wrote “Ten the Southeastern United States. In 1990, Things Developers Should Know About the office expanded its work to the entire Market Studies” for Affordable Housing United States. Finance Magazine. In 2014 Mr. Rogers John Wall and Associates has done over authored the draft NCHMA paper 2,600 market analyses, the majority of “Senior Housing Options”. these being for apartment projects (both Joe Burriss has a Bachelor of Science conventional and affordable). However, degree in Marketing from Clemson the firm is equipped for, and has done University, and has been a market analyst many other types of real estate market with John Wall and Associates since analyses, data mapping, troubled 1999. He has successfully completed the property analysis, shopping center National Council of Housing Market master plans, industrial park master Analysts (NCHMA) peer review process, plans, housing and demographic studies, and has served as a member of the land planning projects, site analysis, council’s membership committee. In location analysis and GIS projects. addition to performing market analysis, Clients include private developers, Mr. Burriss maintains many of the firm’s government officials, syndicators and client relationships and is responsible for lending institutions. business development. John Wall and Associates is a charter 1.2 Release of Information member of the National Council of This report shall not be released by John Housing Market Analysts (NCHMA). All Wall and Associates to persons other market analysts in our office have than the client and his/her designates for successfully passed the NCHMA peer a period of at least sixty (60) days. Other review process and possess their HUD arrangements can be made upon the MAP certificates. client’s request. Bob Rogers has a BS in Business from 1.3 Truth and Accuracy Penn State University, and an MBA from the University of Tennessee. He has been It is hereby attested to that the a market analyst with John Wall and information contained in this report is Associates since 1992. He has served as true and accurate. The report can be Vice Chair and Co-Chair of the NCHMA relied upon as a true assessment of the Standards Committee (from 2004 to low income housing rental market. 2010). As Co-Chair, he led the revision of Bulls Creek Apartments Charleston, South Carolina PCN: 19-022 John Wall and Associates 3 However, no assumption of liability is I understand that any misrepresentation being made or implied. of this statement may result in the denial 1.4 Identity of Interest of further participation in The Client’s rental housing programs. I affirm that I The market analyst will receive no fees have no interest in the project. I have no contingent upon approval of the project relationship with the ownership entity by any agency or lending institution, that has not been disclosed to The Client before or after the fact, and the market in accordance with the certifications in analyst will have no interest in the the Proposal for Market Studies. My housing project. compensation is not contingent on this 1.5 Certifications project being funded. 1.5.1 Certification of Physical Inspection 1.5.3 NCHMA Member Certification I affirm that I, or an individual employed This market study has been prepared by by my company, have made a physical John Wall and Associates, a member in inspection of the market area and that good standing of the National Council of information has been used in the full Housing Market Analysts (NCHMA). assessment of the need and demand for This study has been prepared in new rental units. conformance with the standards adopted 1.5.2 Required Statement by NCHMA for the market analysts’ The statement below is required precisely industry. These standards include the as worded by some clients. It is, in part, Standard Definitions of Key Terms Used repetitious of some of the other in Market Studies, and Model Content statements in this section, which are Standards for the Content of Market required by other clients exactly as they Studies. These standards are designed to are worded. enhance the quality of market studies I affirm that I, or an individual employed and to make them easier to prepare, by my company, have made a physical understand, and use by market analysts inspection of the market area, and the and by the end users. These Standards information derived from that inspection are voluntary only, and no legal has been used in the full study of the responsibility regarding their use is need and demand for new rental units. assumed by the National Council of To the best of my knowledge: the market Housing Market Analysts. can support the project to the extent John Wall and Associates is duly shown in the study; the study was written qualified and experienced in providing according to The Client’s Market Study market analysis for Affordable Housing. Guide; the information is accurate; and The company’s principals participate in the report can be relied upon by The the National Council of Housing Market Client to present a true assessment of the Analysts (NCHMA) educational and low-income rental housing market. information sharing programs to Bulls Creek Apartments Charleston, South Carolina PCN: 19-022 John Wall and Associates 4 maintain the highest professional Submitted and attested to by: standards and state-of-the-art knowledge. John Wall and Associates is an independent market analyst. No principal or employee of John Wall and _____________________________ Associates has any financial interest Joe Burriss, Principal whatsoever in the development for which 3-5-19 this analysis has been undertaken. Date (Note: Information on the National Council of Housing Market Analysts may be obtained by calling 202-939-1750, or by visiting _____________________________ www.housingonline.com) Bob Rogers, Principal 3-5-19 Date Bulls Creek Apartments Charleston, South Carolina PCN: 19-022 John Wall and Associates 5 11.4 Qualifying Income Ranges ......................................................... 50 2 Table of Contents 11.5 Programmatic and Pro Forma Rent Analysis ........................... 51 1 Foreword ................................................................................ 2 11.6 Households with Qualified Incomes ......................................... 52 1.1 Qualifications Statement ................................................................2 12 Demand ............................................................................... 55 1.2 Release of Information ...................................................................2 12.1 Demand from New Households ................................................ 55 1.3 Truth and Accuracy ........................................................................2 12.2 Demand from Existing Households .......................................... 55 1.4 Identity of Interest ..........................................................................3 13 Demand for New Units ........................................................ 58 1.5 Certifications ...................................................................................3 14 Supply Analysis (and Comparables) ................................... 59 2 Table of Contents ................................................................... 5 14.1 Tenure ........................................................................................... 59 2.1 Table of Tables .................................................................................6 14.2 Building Permits Issued .............................................................. 61 2.2 Table of Maps ..................................................................................6 14.3 Survey of Apartments .................................................................. 61 3 Introduction .......................................................................... 7 14.4 Schedule of Present Rents, Units, and Vacancies ..................... 62 3.1 Purpose ............................................................................................7 14.5 Other Affordable Housing Alternatives .................................... 63 3.2 Scope ................................................................................................7 14.6 Comparables ................................................................................. 65 3.3 Methodology ...................................................................................7 14.7 Public Housing ............................................................................. 65 3.4 Limitations ......................................................................................7 14.8 Long Term Impact ....................................................................... 65 4 Executive