Economic Sustainability Plan for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Delta Protection Commission Economic Sustainability Plan for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Prepared for: Delta Protection Commission January 19, 2012 Prepared by: Business Forecasting Center, Eberhardt School of Business, University of the Pacific The Dangermond Group Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. Sapper West, Inc. Garcia DeCredico Studio Natural Resources Institute, University of the Pacific Peterson Brustad, Inc. © Delta Protection Commission, 2012 Licensed Under the Creative Commons Deed: Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 United States (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0) Table of Contents List of Figures.......................................................................................................................... 7 List of Tables ........................................................................................................................... 8 List of Boxes............................................................................................................................ 9 Acronyms & Abbreviations .................................................................................................... 10 Glossary of Key Terms .......................................................................................................... 13 Chapter 1: Introduction .......................................................................................................... 17 Part One: Background and Context for the Economic Sustainability Plan ............................ 23 Chapter 2: Overview of the People and Economy of the Delta ............................................. 24 2.1 Overview and Key Findings ...................................................................................... 24 2.2 The People of the Delta ............................................................................................ 25 2.2.1 Demographic Conditions and Trends .................................................................... 25 2.2.2 Housing Trends ..................................................................................................... 29 2.2.3 Labor Force Participation and Commute Patterns ................................................ 29 2.3 Baseline Economic Conditions and Trends in the Delta ........................................... 30 2.3.1 Employment by Sector .......................................................................................... 30 2.3.2 Location Quotient Analysis .................................................................................... 31 2.3.3 Export Orientation ................................................................................................. 34 Chapter 3: The Delta Ecosystem and Economic Sustainability ............................................ 35 3.1 Brief Background ...................................................................................................... 35 3.2 Stressors ................................................................................................................... 36 3.3 Possible conservation and ecosystem restoration measures ................................... 37 3.4 Potential Impacts of Ecosystem Restoration on the Delta Economy ........................ 39 3.5 Ranking Delta Ecosystem Restoration Proposals for Economic Sustainability ........ 39 Chapter 4: Review of Key Policies and Planning Processes ................................................ 41 4.1 County General Plans and the Delta ........................................................................ 42 4.1.1 Contra Costa County ............................................................................................. 43 4.1.2 Sacramento County ............................................................................................... 44 4.1.3 San Joaquin County .............................................................................................. 46 4.1.4 Solano County ....................................................................................................... 47 4.1.5 Yolo County ........................................................................................................... 48 4.2 Delta Protection Commission Land Use and Resource Management Plan .............. 49 4.3 State of California Planning for the Delta .................................................................. 50 4.3.1 Delta Vision ........................................................................................................... 50 4.3.2 Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Conservancy ...................................................... 51 Economic Sustainability Plan for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta 4.3.3 Delta Reform Act of 2009 ...................................................................................... 52 4.3.4 Delta Stewardship Council Delta Plan ................................................................... 52 4.4 Bay Delta Conservation Plan .................................................................................... 53 4.5 Conclusions .............................................................................................................. 55 Chapter 5: Flood, Earthquake and Sea-Level Rise Risk Management ................................. 56 5.1 Overview and Key Findings ...................................................................................... 56 5.2 Background ............................................................................................................... 57 5.3 Status of Delta Levees .............................................................................................. 66 5.3.1 Categories of Levees ............................................................................................ 66 5.3.2 Levee Standards ................................................................................................... 71 5.3.3 Previous Studies of Delta Levees ......................................................................... 76 5.4 Risk Reduction Strategies ......................................................................................... 83 5.4.1 Improve the robustness of the existing levees ...................................................... 83 5.4.2 Improve inspections, maintenance, and emergency preparedness and response to prevent failures .................................................................................................................... 85 5.4.3 Improve both immediate response and longer-term recovery after failures .......... 86 5.4.4 Current planning efforts ......................................................................................... 86 5.4.5 Discussion of Alternate Risk Reduction Strategies ............................................... 88 5.4.6 Economics of Risk Reduction Strategies .............................................................. 88 5.5 Levee Improvement Strategies and Funding ............................................................ 93 5.6 Periodic Update of the Flood Management Plan for the Delta .................................. 99 5.7 Responses to Independent Review Panel .............................................................. 100 Part Two: Analysis of Key Economic Sectors in the Delta .................................................. 104 Chapter 6: Framework for Analysis ..................................................................................... 105 6.1 Baseline Scenario ................................................................................................... 105 6.2 Isolated Conveyance Scenario ............................................................................... 106 6.3 Habitat Conservation Scenarios ............................................................................. 108 6.4 Levee Scenarios ..................................................................................................... 109 6.5 Regulatory Scenarios .............................................................................................. 110 6.6 Delta Vision Strategies ............................................................................................ 111 Chapter 7: Agriculture ......................................................................................................... 112 7.1 Overview and Key findings ..................................................................................... 112 7.2 Current Status and Trends ...................................................................................... 113 7.2.1 Mapping Delta Agriculture ................................................................................... 113 7.2.2 Crop Categories .................................................................................................. 114 7.2.3 Delta Agricultural Acreage ................................................................................... 115 7.2.4 Delta Agricultural Revenues ................................................................................ 119 Economic Sustainability Plan for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Page 2 7.3 Economic Impact of Delta Agriculture ..................................................................... 121 7.3.1 Animal Production in the Delta ............................................................................ 121 7.3.2 Value Added Processing: Food and Beverage Manufacturing ............................ 121 7.3.3 Economic Impact Estimates ...............................................................................