2017 Proceedings of the 12th European Wave and Tidal Energy Conference 27th Aug -1st Sept 2017, Cork, Ireland Opportunities for Tidal Stream Energy in Indonesian Waters Ahmad Mukhlis Firdaus#1, Guy T Houlsby#2, Thomas AA Adcock#3 #Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford, Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PJ,UK 1 [email protected] 2 [email protected] 3 [email protected] Abstract — as a country with emerging economic growth, Increasing energy need requires Indonesia to reshape its Indonesia is facing challenges associated with energy security for future mix of energy sources, reducing reliance on fossil fuels its future. Currently, Indonesia still relies on fossil fuels as its will threaten Indonesian with climate change [3]. Indonesia has energy main sources. However, Indonesian oil and gas already faced major problems believed to be the result of productivities have been declining in recent years and Indonesia climate change, such as forest burning in dry seasons and has become a net importer of oil and gas. These conditions have caused the Indonesian government to look for other sources of flooding in rainy seasons. Presidential Decree No 79 (Fig. 1) energy that are more secure and sustainable. In addition, since shows Indonesia’s commitment to increased use of renewable Indonesia is vulnerable to climate change, shifting energy sources energy by 2050. As the largest archipelagic country, energy from fossil fuels to clean renewable energy is desirable. Based on from the ocean such as tidal, wave and OTEC is an appealing the above, tidal energy can be part of the solution to Indonesia’s option. future energy needs. As an archipelagic country, Indonesia has great potential in tidal resources, as there are many narrow straits between the islands of the Indonesian archipelago coupled with phase differences in tidal components across the straits. Its location between the Pacific and Indian Oceans mean that tidal conditions in Indonesia are very different compared to those in the Western Europe and Northern America regions. Assessing the tidal resources in Indonesia requires much further investigation, especially involving the modelling of tidal stream opportunities. Several technical issues need to be addressed to allow rational selection of potential sites for turbine deployment. This paper aims to present an overview, to understand the general characteristics of the region, before detailed tidal resource assessment of the Indonesian region is undertaken. Keywords— Tidal Energy, Resource Assessment, Indonesia Fig. 1 National Energy Mix Based on Presidential Decree No 79 (2014) (PP no 79 tahun 2014) [4] I. INTRODUCTION B. Indonesian Demography and Electrification Ratio A. Electricity Production and Government Regulation With one of highest world populations, approximately 230 The Indonesian State Electric Company (PLN), a single million people in 2010, providing energy for Indonesia is company supplying national energy needs, generates electrical challenging. Furthermore, the population is not distributed power in Indonesia. At present PLN relies on fossil fuels, with evenly. About 60% of the population is located in the Java coal (44%), oil/diesel (23%) and gas power plants (21%) Islands. Since electricity consumption is dominated by the accounting for most of the supply in 2013. The total installed household sector, the population distribution plays an important generating capacity (including off-grid generation) was about role in determining future Indonesian demand for energy. 44 GW, of which 37 GW was from plant owned by PLN, and Based on 2015 data, the national electrification ratio is about the rest procured by PLN from contracted Independent Power 88.8%. This mean there are nearly 35 million people that have Producers (IPPs). Electrical production is, however, lower than lack of access to modern forms of energy [4]. These are not the potential energy demand [1]. spread evenly across the country, and there are some regions The government agency for the assessment and application where less than half the population has access to electricity. Fig of technology (BPPT) in the 2016 Indonesian Energy outlook 2 shows the electrification ratio and population in each [2] also provides data showing that the Indonesian electricity province in Indonesia. This figure shows that the most consumption in 2014 was about 199 TWh. The consumption is populated region is West Java, part of Java Island. Meanwhile dominated by the household sector, 42%, followed by the the lowest electrification ratio is in Papua, which also has one industrial and commercial sectors with 33% and 24% of the lowest populations in Indonesia. This distribution adds respectively. As an emerging country economically, electricity to the challenge of providing energy for the Indonesian demand is predicted increase in the coming years. Within the population. next 20 years, Indonesia is predicted to need from 1205 TWh Providing electricity across Indonesia needs proper study to 1491 TWh. Total energy demand in Indonesia is predicted to before deploying any investment in this region. For instance, increase almost tenfold from 52 GW to 115 GW in 2020 and for tidal power, selecting the best location for the first turbine 430 GW in 2050. developments is important for the future development of the ISSN 2309-1983 Copyright © European Wave and Tidal Energy Conference 2017 887- 1 industry. The scale of developments must be tailored to local available power each month may not be economically viable as demand in order to create a viable supply. for much of the time the turbine would operate at well below Tidal technology can be divided into two broad groups: its capacity. To optimise the economical advantage, limiting megawatt and sub-megawatt installations. The demography turbine operation to a particular limit of velocity by introducing and electrification ratio are important factors to be taken into a power capping strategy is inevitable. The net power account in selecting appropriate tidal technologies for production is also usefully expressed in terms of the capacity particular locations in Indonesia. For instance in some locations factor, which is the ratio of the average power production to the sub-megawatt installations could play an important role in installed power capacity. displacing reliance on diesel generation. Realistic tidal resource assessment needs to take this important feature of operation into account. The power capping II. DOMINANT TIDAL CONSTITUENTS AND TIDAL ASYMMETRY and thus the capacity factor will be specific to the tidal pattern Tides occur due to the dynamic response of oceans to at any particular location, and will be affected for instance in gravitational forces applied primarily by the Moon and Sun some locations by tidal asymmetry. To date most tidal resource [6,7]. Tidal resource assessment requires a detailed assessments have been carried out for regions that are understanding of these responses. Since prediction of tidal dominated by semidiurnal tides (M2 and S2). Many Indonesian elevations from harmonic components is well established, sites do not conform to this pattern, often being dominated by resource estimation can be based on deterministic modelling of diurnal tides. There appears to be little recent research specific time periods. Contrast this with assessment of wind or addressing resource assessment in this type of environment. wave resources, which must be based on probabilistic We address these issues from a theoretical basis below, approaches. Furthermore, satisfactory simulation can often be deriving some results supporting the influence of tidal achieved using a small number of dominant tidal constituents, asymmetry on tidal resources assessments. We can deduce reducing the necessary simulation time. An understanding of some preliminary implications for Indonesian waters, although the dominant tidal constituents and their interactions via the the details require further research. shallow water equations is important. However, in maximising the economic benefit of tidal A. Velocity Effects from Interaction of Semidiurnal and turbines, operators might not exploit the peak power available Diurnal Tidal Constituents to the turbines. Installing a turbine that can extract the peak In most areas in the northern hemisphere that have been studied for tidal resources, the semidiurnal constituents play a Fig. 2 Indonesian Population [5] and Electrification Ratio [4] 887- 2 dominant role. NASA’s world co-tidal chart shows that the components. The example uses equal amplitudes of the four highest influence on large diurnal tides, as well as on the neap- components (AM2 = AS2 = AK1 = AO1 = 1.0m), and zero spring cycles is semidiurnal tides, occuring twice a day [8]. The difference of phase (N ) . An asymmetric pattern of both tidal tidal pattern around the UK tidal pattern is, for example, elevation (Fig. 3.a) and tidal velocity (Fig. 3.b) can be observed dominated by M2, the principal lunar tidal constituent. This during each day. Fig. 3.b shows for instance the tidal flow in means that tidal resource assessments conducted for the UK can the positive direction varying more than the negative velocities be conducted using the M2 and S2 constituents. in each daily tidal cycle. The Pentland Firth, for example, a prime target site for tidal The presence of a dominant diurnal component in the tidal turbines in the UK, can be assessed in terms of M2 and S2. regime will have a significant impact on tidal power extraction Adcock et al. have carried out resource assessment seeking an strategy. Firstly, the pattern of intermittency will differ from a upper boundary for power availability using only S2 and M2 in site dominated by semidiurnal tides, with fewer highly peaks. Pentland Firth [9]. They compare the results with analyses Secondly, diurnal tides are often associated with tidal using additional constituents (K1, K2, MU2, N2, NU2 and O1), asymmetry, further exacerbating this issue. and show that including these only increases mean available power by about 7-9%. In a similar way to [9], many publications for this site use just one or two constituents (S2 and M2) as for the forcing in the analysis [10-13].