Manpower Alternatives to Enhance Total Force Capabilities Could New Forms of Reserve Service Help Alleviate Military Shortfalls? Stephen Dalzell, Molly Dunigan, Phillip Carter, Katherine Costello, Amy Grace Donohue, Brian Phillips, Michael Pollard, Susan A. Resetar, Michael Shurkin C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR3055 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0294-3 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2019 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover: U.S. Navy photo by Justin Oakes. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. 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Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface Developed in the first half of the twentieth century, the basic struc- ture of participation in the U.S. military reserve components (RCs) still reflects many of the sociocultural trends of that era: RC members were more likely then to have a long-term civilian career with a single employer and established benefits, weekends free for nonwork activi- ties, and two-parent families with only one parent working outside the home, to name a few. Changes in employment stability, family struc- ture, and economic pressures since that time created both challenges and opportunities for how the RCs are used to meet national mili- tary requirements. Modifying assumptions about Reserve duty has the potential to improve RC member recruitment, performance, develop- ment, and retention in critical experience-reliant occupational fields— and it could stem projected manpower losses by providing alternative RC service options and enhancing recruitment of those in fields with highly competitive civilian industries, such as cyberspecialties, infor- mation technology, and aviation. Against the backdrop of this context, the Office of the Secre- tary of Defense initially proposed this research when the U.S. Depart- ment of Defense was undergoing a review of alternative force mixes as directed by the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year (FY) 2017—including military technicians (MilTechs), civilians, and full-time support personnel—and the FY 2016 NDAA-mandated conversion of certain categories of MilTechs to civil service positions. In the course of that work, the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Manpower and Reserve Affairs concluded that it needed iii iv Manpower Alternatives to Enhance Total Force Capabilities to explore broader programmatic improvements that would go beyond the MilTech program to enhance the manpower available for a variety of national requirements. This research was sponsored by the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Reserve Integration and the Office of the Assistant Sec- retary of Defense for Manpower and Reserve Affairs and conducted within the Forces and Resources Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and develop- ment center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense intelligence community. For more information on the RAND Forces and Resources Policy Center, see www.rand.org/nsrd/ndri/centers/frp or contact the director (contact information is provided on the webpage). Comments or questions should be addressed to the project leaders, Steve Dalzell at [email protected] and Molly Dunigan at mdunigan@ rand.org. Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures ............................................................................. ix Tables .............................................................................. xi Summary .........................................................................xiii Acknowledgments .............................................................xxix Abbreviations .................................................................. xxxi CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 Approach ............................................................................ 4 Relevance and Applicability of This Study ..................................... 6 CHAPTER TWO Policy and Practice Surrounding Current Reserve Component Personnel Systems and Related Sources of Human Capital ......... 7 Current Reserve Component Options ........................................... 8 Reserve Component Training and Force Development: Implications for Reserve Component Service and Structure ...........13 Nonreserve Component Personnel Options Across the Total Force ........18 CHAPTER THREE Service Demand for Key Types of Personnel ...............................29 Workforce Requirements ........................................................ 30 Identifying Shortfalls in Particular Types of Occupational Specialties .....31 Identifying Common Features in Shortage Specialties .......................32 v vi Manpower Alternatives to Enhance Total Force Capabilities CHAPTER FOUR Identifying Segments of the Labor Force Underrepresented in Military Service ..........................................................37 Policy and Regulatory Limits to Service .......................................37 The American Working Conditions Survey Analysis ....................... 46 General Social Survey Analysis ..................................................49 American Community Survey Analyses ...................................... 54 Examples of Underleveraged Occupations and Populations .................61 Personal and Occupational Characteristics May Limit Reserve Component Participation Among Some Populations ................... 66 CHAPTER FIVE A Comparative Analysis of Reserve Component Organizational Models Across Foreign Militaries ........................................69 United Kingdom ..................................................................70 Australia ............................................................................75 France ...............................................................................79 Estonia ............................................................................. 84 CHAPTER SIX Innovative Employment Models in Other U.S. Public Organizations and the Private Sector ...................................91 Overview of Nonstandard Work Arrangements...............................91 Examples of Nonstandard Work Models in the Private Sector ..............93 U.S. Non–Department of Defense Public-Sector Organizations ......... 104 Application to Alternative Reserve Component Management Approaches .................................................................. 112 CHAPTER SEVEN Potential Workforce Constructs for Innovative Reserve Component Workforce Management Models ....................... 115 Workforce Construct 1: No Passport Required ............................. 116 Workforce Construct 2: Telereserves ......................................... 121 Workforce Construct 3: Reserves on Demand .............................. 127 Workforce Construct 4: Seasonal Worker, Seasonal Reserve .............. 131 Workforce Construct 5: Job Sharing ......................................... 134 Contents vii Workforce Construct 6: Part-Time Plus ...................................... 137 Workforce Construct 7: Sponsored Reserve ................................. 139 Workforce Construct 8: Wounded Warriors ................................. 142 Workforce Construct 9: Warrant Officer–Deacons ........................ 150 How the Constructs Could Be Used ......................................... 155 Designing Pilot Programs for the Workforce Constructs .................. 157 CHAPTER EIGHT Conclusions and Recommendations ....................................... 161 Conclusions ...................................................................... 161 Recommendations .............................................................. 164 APPENDIXES A. Identifying Shortfalls in Specialties Across the Services ........... 167 B. Detailed Analysis of Potential Human Capital Rewards of Alternatives ................................................................ 181 American Working Conditions Survey and General Social Survey Analysis ...................................................................... 181 American Community Survey Analysis ...................................... 182 C. Background and Case Studies of Nonstandard Work Arrangements .............................................................