Delaware covers.qxd 7/17/07 11:22 AM Page 2 Grant #: FAA Regional 3-42-0125-003-03 (Phase I) 3-42-0125-005-05 Air Service (Phase II) Demand Study Task B — Forecast of Passengers, Operations and Other Activities May 2007 Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission ABE – ACY – TTN – Lehigh Valley Atlantic City Trenton Mercer International Airport International Airport Airport Port Authority of New York & New Jersey JFK – LGA – EWR – John F. Kennedy LaGuardia Airport Newark Liberty International Airport International Airport New York State Department of Transportation SWF – HPN – ISP – Stewart International Westchester County Long Island Airport Airport MacArthur Airport SPONSORS: Federal Aviation Delaware Valley Regional Administration Planning Commission FAA Regional Air Service Demand Study Acknowledgements Study Sponsors The Federal Aviation Administration The Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission Consultant Team PB Americas, Inc. Landrum & Brown Airport Interviewing & Research Hirsh Associates SIMCO Engineering InterVISTAS Clough Harbour & Associates Hamilton, Rabinowitz & Alschuler The preparation of this document was financed in part through a planning grant from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) as provided under Vision 100 — Century of Aviation Authorization Act. The contents reflect the opinion of the preparer and do not necessarily reflect the official views or policy of the FAA or the DVRPC. Grants DVRPC: 3-42-0125-003-03 (Phase I); 3-42-0125-005-05 (Phase II) FAA REGIONAL AIR SERVICE DEMAND STUDY Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER Page I - Introduction and Task B Purpose ............................................... I-1 II - DVRPC Background..................................................................II-1 III – National Passenger Activity Trends ..................................... III-1 IV – Catchment Area identification ............................................... IV-1 V – Catchment Area Demographics ................................................ V-1 V.1 Lehigh Valley...................................................................... V-1 V.2 Atlantic City........................................................................ V-1 V.3 Trenton.............................................................................. V-4 VI – Forecast Methodology ........................................................... VI-1 VI.1 Identification of Possible Forecast Methods.............................VI-1 VI.2 Total Passenger Based Solely on Catchment Area Population ....VI-3 VI.3 Unique Issues of the Study Areas Affecting Air Passengers .......VI-4 VI.4 Optimistic Scenario Assumptions ..........................................VI-7 VII. Airport Facilities............................................................ VII-1 VII.1 Lehigh Valley....................................................................VII-1 VII.2 Atlantic City......................................................................VII-1 VII.3 Trenton............................................................................VII-1 VIII. Passenger Activity Forecasts........................................ VIII-1 VIII.1 Lehigh Valley...................................................................VIII-1 VIII.1.1 Historical Passenger Traffic ................................................VIII-2 VIII.1.2 Current Airline Schedule....................................................VIII-3 VIII.1.3 Passenger Survey Information ...........................................VIII-4 VIII.1.4 Passenger Forecast...........................................................VIII-4 VIII.2 Atlantic City.....................................................................VIII-8 VIII.2.1 Historical Passenger Traffic ................................................VIII-7 VIII.2-2 Current Airline Schedule..................................................VIII-11 VIII.2.3 Background on Spirit Airlines ...........................................VIII-12 VIII.2.4 Background on Casino Gaming and Air Service ...................VIII-13 PB / L&B / AIR FAA Regional Airspace Study November 2006 Page-i FAA REGIONAL AIR SERVICE DEMAND STUDY Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission TABLE OF CONTENTS (Cont’d) CHAPTER (Cont’d) Page VIII.2.5 Passenger Survey Information .........................................VIII-14 VIII.2.6 Passenger Forecast.........................................................VIII-14 VIII.3 Trenton.........................................................................VIII-21 VIII.3.1 Historical Passenger Traffic ..............................................VIII-19 VIII.3.2 Current Airlines Schedule ................................................VIII-20 VIII.3.3 Background on Pan Am Clipper Connection ........................VIII-21 VIII.3.4 Background on Passenger Activity ....................................VIII-21 VIII.3.5 Passenger Survey Information .........................................VIII-21 VIII.3.6 Base, Optimistic, and Pessimistic Passenger Forecasts .........VIII-22 IX. Air Cargo Activity Forecast............................................................ IX-1 IX.1 Lehigh Valley.........................................................................IX-3 IX.2 Atlantic City...........................................................................IX-6 IX.3 Trenton.................................................................................IX-8 X. Forecast Aircraft Operations and Fleet Mix .................................... X-1 X.1 Lehigh Valley.......................................................................... X-1 X.2 Atlantic City............................................................................ X-8 X.3 Trenton................................................................................ X-11 XI. Impact Factors.............................................................................. XI-1 XI.1 Low Cost Carriers...................................................................XI-3 XI.2 Changes in Flight Access Regulations at LGA, JFK, and EWR..........XI-4 XI.3 Changes in Flight Access Regulations at HPN ..............................XI-5 XI.4 Fuel Prices.............................................................................XI-6 XI.5 Airline Bankruptcies................................................................ Xi-8 XI.6 Effects of Economic Upturns and Downturns ...............................XI-8 XI.7 Effects of the Attacks of September 11, 2001 – Real Decline in Short-.. Haul Travel.......................................................................... XI-10 XI.8 Effect of the Attacks of September 11, 2001 – Declining Yields for Long-Haul Travel.................................................................. XI-11 XI.9 Effects of the Attacks of September 11, 2001 – Air Cargo Industry................................................................ XI-13 XI.10 Airline Industry Outlook......................................................... XI-15 XI.11 Effect of Airside congestion .................................................... XI-15 XI.12 Effect of Regional Ground Transportation Congestion ................. XI-16 XI.13 Summary of Factors Affecting the Forecasts ............................. XI-17 PB / L&B / AIR FAA Regional Airspace Study November 2006 Page-ii FAA REGIONAL AIR SERVICE DEMAND STUDY Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission TABLE OF CONTENTS (Cont’d) TABLES Page II-1 Counties of the DVRPC and Their Population............................II-1 III-1 Total U.S. Enplaned Passengers by Decade ........................... III-1 IV-1 Catchment Areas Identification.............................................IV-1 V.1-1 Lehigh Valley Demographic Data ........................................... V-2 V.2-1 Atlantic City Demographic Data ............................................. V-3 V.3-1 Trenton Demographic Data................................................... V-5 VI.2-1 Enplaned Passenger Ration Projection ...................................VI-3 VI.4-1 Current Aircraft in Southwest’s Fleet .....................................VI-9 VI.4-2 Additional Enplaned Passenger Calculation .............................VI-9 VIII.1-1 Historical Enplanements – Lehigh Valley ..............................VIII-2 VIII.1-2 Scheduled Passenger Departures – Lehigh Valley..................VIII-3 VIII.1-3 Enplaned Passenger Forecasts – Lehigh Valley......................VIII-7 VIII.2-1 Historical Enplaned Passengers – Atlantic City ....................VIII-10 VIII.2-2 2004 and 2005 Enplanements by Airline – Atlantic City........VIII-11 VIII.2-3 Scheduled Passenger Departures – Atlantic City..................VIII-12 VIII.2-4 TAF – Base Passenger Forecast – Atlantic City ....................VIII-16 VIII.2-5 Enplaned Passenger Forecast – Atlantic City.......................VIII-20 VIII.3-1 Historical Enplaned passengers – Trenton ..........................VIII-22 VIII.3-2 Activity Forecast Assumptions – Trenton............................VIII-25 VIII.3-3 Enplaned Passenger Forecast – Trenton.............................VIII-26 IX-1 Rank and Volume of Air Cargo at Regional Hubs in 2005 ..........IX-3 IX.1-1 Historical Air Cargo – Lehigh Valley.......................................IX-4 IX.1-2 Forecast Air Cargo – Lehigh Valley........................................IX-5 IX.1-3 Forecast All-Cargo Operations – Lehigh Valley ........................IX-6 IX.2-1 Forecast Scheduled All-Cargo Aircraft Departures and Annual Volumes – Atlantic City.......................................IX-7