February 2017 Executive Summary January saw notable developments unfold in Central Africa, with CAR witnessing a string of militia-related attacks on peacekeepers and non-combatants near Zemio and Mboki, located in Haut-Mbomou prefecture, as well as other such raids throughout the Ouham-Pende prefecture. Armed elements in Nigeria likewise captured headlines in January, with the Niger Delta Avengers (NDA) calling off their unilateral ceasefire with the government and other high-profile militants expressing doubt in the state’s willingness to resolve the crisis in the oil-rich Nile Delta region. Events in DRC saw notable progress in the political realm, although the Kabila government and opposition remain divided over the assignment of specific ministerial posts in forthcoming transitional government as well as the process by which the new prime minister will be appointed. January was also characterized by persistent tensions between Cameroon’s Anglophone and Francophone communities, with English speakers widely adhering to ‘Dead City’ strikes in Bamenda and Buea as the government crackdown on internet access and Anglophone civil society organizations. Of course, Islamist militancy continued to be a problem in the Lake Chad area despite security force successes, as Boko Haram conducted successful suicide attacks in Maiduguri, Nigeria, and ISWAP targeted parts of Niger, among others. In East Africa, Kenya’s doctors persisted in their over seven-week strike, marching on Nairobi’s Employment and Labor Relations Court as their union leaders were threatened with jail sentences, while in the country’s Mandera County, al- Shabaab targeted a guest house amid persistent attempts to economically isolate the region. Al-Shabaab likewise featured in developments in Somalia, carrying out a number of large-scale, and high capacity assaults amid the ongoing electoral period in the country. Armed conflict was likewise a recurring theme in Ethiopia, with unidentified assailants in Amhara targeting businesses reportedly affiliated with the ruling government. Meanwhile, developments in South Sudan saw the country’s fluid security landscape shift amid defections to and from both the government and rebel faction, while the former worked to consolidate power with calls for National Dialogue and the creation of new administrative states. Mozambique saw a relative calm January, as a ceasefire initially enacted between the Frelimo government and rebel Renamo in December was largely adhered to. Finally, in Uganda, the flight of former M23 fighters from government cantonments back into the DRC mirrored an uptick in the group’s movement in the region, amid concerns that the movements might stir old tensions. The past month brought a mixture of volatility and diplomacy to West Africa, principally in The Gambia, where longtime President Yahya Jammeh stepped down amid regional pressure and the initial stages of a military intervention, finally allowing democratically elected President Adana Barrow take power. Mutinous soldiers in Ivory Coast, demanding monetary compensation from the government, brought sudden and widespread unrest to the country, with the government accidence to their demands resolving the issue, but fomenting others. January saw Burkina Faso and Mali agree to more comprehensive military cooperation regarding the militant threat along their porous border, while the latter country, in a single car-bomb attack by al-Mourabitoun, suffered a dramatic blow to its already fragile, but key security arrangement. In Southern Africa, the opposition in Zimbabwe showed signs of weakness as the MDC-T refused to support Zim-PF’s parliamentary candidate in the Bikita West parliamentary elections, assisting the ruling Zanu-PF to a landslide victory. Back to Table of Contents 11 MAX Security Solutions Ltd. Office: +44 20 3540 0434 www.max-security.com Global Risk Map/Africa Back to Table of Contents 2 MAX Security Solutions Ltd. Office: +44 20 3540 0434 www.max-security.com The following list contains countries in the region with notable developments from the past month. Please choose your country of interest by clicking on its link below. Extreme Risk LAKE CHAD ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 4 CAR ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 6 SOMALIA ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 8 SOUTH SUDAN ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 9 High Risk DRC ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 10 MALI ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 12 NIGERIA .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 13 Medium Risk BURKINA FASO ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 14 CAMEROON ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 15 ETHIOPIA ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 16 IVORY COAST .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 18 KENYA ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 19 MOZAMBIQUE ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 20 UGANDA ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 22 ZIMBABWE ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 23 Low Risk EQUATORIAL GUINEA ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 24 THE GAMBIA .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 25 GHANA .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 26 Notable Dates .................................................................................................................................................................................................................27 Back to Table of Contents 3 MAX Security Solutions Ltd. Office: +44 20 3540 0434 www.max-security.com LAKE CHAD Extreme Risk NOTABLE DATES Current Situation JANUARY 10 16 20 13 fleeing suspected Five killed in fresh Boko At least two soldiers killed, seven Boko Haram militants Haram suicide attack at wounded in attack against arrested in several University of Maiduguri, military garrison in Gueskerou, Nigerian states Borno State Diffa Region, Niger Assessments & Forecast Fleeing Boko Haram militants unlikely to pose distinct Militant attacks continue in spite of momentum of threat outside Lake Chad Area counterinsurgency efforts Amid the ongoing operations against Boko Haram since the In spite of the counterinsurgency efforts and reported capture of Sambisa Forest, several arrests of implementation of amnesty programs as evidenced in suspected fleeing militants from Borno State have been Niger over the past months, Boko Haram still represents a recorded across Nigeria during the month of January, as