February 2014 Mainstreaming Climate Policy in the Gulf Cooperation Council States Dr. Mari Luomi * OIES PAPER: MEP 7 *Research Associate, OIES The contents of this paper are the authors’ sole responsibility. They do not necessarily represent the views of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies or any of its members. Copyright © 2014 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (Registered Charity, No. 286084) This publication may be reproduced in part for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgment of the source is made. No use of this publication may be made for resale or for any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. ISBN 978-1-907555-91-6 February 2014: Mainstreaming Climate Policy in the Gulf Cooperation Council States ii Contents 1 Reversing the Viewpoint: From International Zero-Sum to National Win-Win ............................. 1 2 Climate Policy at Different Levels: Mechanisms and Measures .................................................... 4 2.1 International Frameworks and Mechanisms ................................................................................. 4 2.1.1 UNFCCC Principles Related to Mitigation and Adaptation ..................................................... 4 2.1.2 Reporting Emissions and Actions ........................................................................................... 6 2.1.3 The Clean Development Mechanism ...................................................................................... 6 2.1.4 Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions ............................................................................... 7 2.1.5 Adaptation and Impacts of Response Measures .................................................................... 9 2.1.6 Actions in the Area of Economic Diversification ................................................................... 11 2.1.7 Low Emission Development Strategies ................................................................................ 11 2.2 Domestic Mitigation Measures .................................................................................................... 12 2.2.1 Economy-wide Policies, Measures and Instruments ............................................................ 13 2.2.2 Energy Supply ....................................................................................................................... 13 2.2.3 Buildings ................................................................................................................................ 14 2.2.4 Manufacturing and Construction ........................................................................................... 14 2.2.5 Transport ............................................................................................................................... 15 2.2.6 Fugitive Emissions ................................................................................................................ 15 2.2.7 Other Sectors and Consumer Behaviour .............................................................................. 16 2.3 Resilience to Climate Change and Response Measures .............................................................. 16 2.4 Other Climate Change-Related Measures ................................................................................... 17 3 Context and Status of Climate Policy in the GCC ......................................................................... 19 3.1 Climate Policy Context ................................................................................................................. 19 3.1.1 National Circumstances ........................................................................................................ 19 3.1.2 GHG Emission Profiles ......................................................................................................... 20 3.1.3 GHG Emission Scenarios ..................................................................................................... 26 3.1.4 Capabilities and Vulnerabilities ............................................................................................. 29 3.1.5 Institutional Arrangements .................................................................................................... 31 3.2 Status of Mitigation Policy and Measures ................................................................................... 33 3.2.1 Economy-wide Policies, Measures and Instruments ............................................................ 33 3.2.2 Energy Supply ....................................................................................................................... 34 3.2.3 Buildings ................................................................................................................................ 37 3.2.4 Manufacturing and Construction ........................................................................................... 39 3.2.5 Transport ............................................................................................................................... 40 3.2.6 Fugitive Emissions ................................................................................................................ 41 3.2.7 Other Sectors and Consumer Behaviour .............................................................................. 41 3.2.8 Participation in UNFCCC Mechanisms ................................................................................. 42 3.3 Status of Adaptation and Response Measures-Related Policy and Measures ............................ 44 3.4 Other Climate Change-Related Measures ................................................................................... 46 4 Synergies with Sustainable Development in the GCC .................................................................. 50 4.1 Mainstreaming Climate Policy with LEDS .................................................................................... 50 4.2 Drivers of Climate Policy and Action ............................................................................................ 51 4.3 National Development Visions and Strategies ............................................................................. 54 4.3.1 Economic Diversification ....................................................................................................... 56 4.3.2 Energy and Natural Resource Security and Policy ............................................................... 56 4.3.3 Knowledge Economy and Green Economy .......................................................................... 57 4.4 Towards Low-Emission, Climate-Resilient Development ............................................................ 59 5 Conclusions: Accelerating Action in the GCC ............................................................................... 60 5.1 Potential for Accelerated and Further Action .............................................................................. 60 5.2 Obstacles and Limits to Action ..................................................................................................... 61 5.3 Maximising the Benefits of Established Climate Policies ............................................................. 63 Bibliography ......................................................................................................................................... 64 February 2014 : Mainstreaming Climate Policy in the Gulf Cooperation Council States iii Figures Figure 1: Total GHG emissions in MtCO 2e in the GCC states, 2000–2010. ......................................... 22 Figure 2: Shares of energy sources in electricity generation in the GCC states, 2000 & 2010. ............ 24 Figure 3: Shares of energy sources in primary energy supply in the GCC states, 2000 & 2010. ......... 25 Tables Table 1: Greenhouse gas emissions in the GCC states. ....................................................................... 21 Table 2: Energy sector greenhouse gas emissions in the GCC states, 2009. ...................................... 23 Table 3: Carbon intensity of GCC economies, 2000–2010. .................................................................. 26 Table 4: Selected mitigation scenarios for Abu Dhabi. .......................................................................... 28 Table 5: Government entities responsible for climate change policy. ................................................... 31 Table 6: CDM projects in validation and registered in the GCC countries, October 2013. ................... 43 Table 7: Research institutions with climate policy-relevant focus in three GCC states. ........................ 47 Table 8: Drivers of climate action grounded in broader socioeconomic priorities in the GCC. ............. 53 Table 9: National development visions and strategies of three GCC states. ........................................ 54 February 2014 : Mainstreaming Climate Policy in the Gulf Cooperation Council States iv 1 Reversing the Viewpoint: From International Zero-Sum to National Win-Win In the recent years, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states have begun actively exploring opportunities for proactive participation in the global low-carbon transition. This shift in attitude has been prompted by the simultaneous rise of climate change on the international energy agenda and the GCC states’ economic and population boom in the 2000s, which began to put unprecedented